--- title: "Pop Mart: Bubble Burst — Is the Hypergrowth Story Over?" type: "Topics" locale: "en" url: "https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43515448.md" description: "The business struggled to lap last year's high base. The ongoing overseas reorg further weighed on results, dragging overall performance below expectations." datetime: "2026-08-20T13:45:20.000Z" locales: - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/topics/43515448.md) - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/topics/43515448.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/topics/43515448.md) author: "[Dolphin Research](https://longbridge.com/en/dolphin.md)" --- # Pop Mart: Bubble Burst — Is the Hypergrowth Story Over? On the afternoon of Aug 20 (Beijing time), Pop Mart (9992.HK) reported its 1H26 results. Overall, **the company failed to clear last year's high base, with the overseas reorg phase dragging results and leading to a miss vs. expectations; the positive is that the second IP ramped far faster than the market expected.**$POP MART(09992.HK) **Key takeaways are as follows.** Details follow. **1) Overseas drag led to a revenue miss.** In 1H26, Pop Mart delivered revenue of RMB 17.2 bn (+24% YoY). **Based on management’s earlier Q1 growth indication, Dolphin Research estimates Q2 revenue at roughly RMB 7.3 bn, down about 25% QoQ,** which aligns with softer domestic traffic, product buzz and promotions in Q2 vs. Q1. **However, the magnitude of the overseas decline was clearly worse than expected.** **2) Overseas turned negative YoY for the first time.** Overseas revenue came in at RMB 5.0 bn, down 11% YoY. By channel, **online fell a sharp 44% YoY,** which corroborates management’s own review: **the 2025 overseas surge was largely driven by pushing inventory online, essentially using one-off traffic to realize one-off sales.** By region, only Europe achieved positive YoY growth via store openings, while all other regions declined. **3) Domestic growth quality held up.** With just 10 net new stores, refined ops drove domestic revenue to RMB 12.2 bn, up 47% YoY. **Online revenue reached RMB 4.8 bn (+63% YoY), outpacing offline (+35% YoY),** reflecting strong digital execution. **Blind-box mini program (WeChat) delivered RMB 2.06 bn, up 83% YoY, the largest domestic growth contributor.** In addition, wholesale and others were RMB 550 mn (+112% YoY), **mainly from City Park, POP BAKERY desserts and POPOP accessories.** **4) The Monsters mix fell notably; Xingxingren rose to the No. 2 IP.** By IP, THE MONSTERS generated RMB 4.45 bn (-7.5% YoY), **with mix sliding from a 40% peak to 26.0%. This is the first semiannual absolute revenue decline since it became the top IP, signaling fading novelty and scarcity premium.** On the bright side, **Xingxingren revenue reached RMB 2.65 bn, with mix jumping to 15.4% as the No. 2 IP,** and ex-THE MONSTERS, other IPs grew +40% YoY. **This meaningfully alleviates market concerns about over-reliance on a single IP.** **5) Plush remains dominant; figurines have stalled.** By category, plush revenue was RMB 9.8 bn (+60% YoY), **with mix up from 44.2% to 57.2%.** Figurines were RMB 5.2 bn, **flat YoY despite being the native carrier of the blind-box model and the company’s former core, implying most current growth is concentrated in plush.** **6) Disciplined opex; ex-FX P/L, profitability did not deteriorate.** While the higher-mix plush category lifted product structure, the higher-margin overseas mix fell and input costs rose, **resulting in GPM down 0.6 pct to 69.7%.** Opex was restrained, with both admin and selling ratios slightly lower; **ex-FX gains/losses, OPM edged up 0.9 pct to 43.2%.** **7) Detailed financials at a glance** **Dolphin Research overall view:** Although management framed this year as a reorganization year at the outset—**with sales growth not the primary goal—**Dolphin Research is still not satisfied with Pop Mart’s 1H performance. Execution fell short of what could have been achieved even under that guidance. On product/ops approach, the newly launched Labubu 4.0 Retro Barber series clearly sought to boost IP playability via hair DIY, meme-friendly themes, swappable hair, unboxing guides and customization content to extend the IP lifecycle. However, **it evidently failed—secondary prices broke issue and inventory remained widely available across channels. Dolphin Research believes the time cost for users to style, create content and customize is much higher than a normal blind-box unboxing,** limiting engagement. Separately, the World Cup should have been Pop Mart’s best card—nearly a month of matches with incremental audiences concentrated overseas, while Labubu’s highly expressive form is naturally suited for memes and UGC. **In practice, most content and discussion peaked during the June 11–15 opening window; sustained ops tied to match cadence, overseas store scenes and overseas UGC were weak, and truly event-native content was scarce.** The result was a lot of noise with limited follow-through, below expectations. In other words, from an IP perspective, **1H growth was largely the cashing-in of existing blockbusters, rather than new IPs or products lifting brand momentum.** From another angle, **this also shows the toolbox for legacy IPs is hitting its limits**—price cuts hurt the brand, tightening supply is hard after supply was opened up, and adding content raises participation hurdles. The remaining path is to push new IPs, which explains why Xingxingren was brought up so quickly; yet its surge today could face Labubu-like challenges in 2–3 years. **For Pop Mart and designer-toy peers, combating aesthetic fatigue by incubating a blockbuster IP every 2–3 years is critical.** **On valuation, full-year revenue guidance is unchanged; factoring FX losses in 1H, Dolphin Research trims profit slightly. On RMB 13.4 bn FY net income, the stock trades at ~13x—downside derating risk looks limited.** That said, the base gets tougher in 2H (especially Q3), and overseas inventory clean-up could pressure GPM. Dolphin Research suggests waiting for signs of stabilization and recovery in overseas online data before building positions. **Detailed earnings analysis below** **I. Revenue missed due to overseas drag** In 1H26, overseas revenue (APAC + Americas + Europe & others) was RMB 4.97 bn, down 11.1% YoY. **Mix fell from 40.3% in 1H25 to 29.0%, marking the first YoY decline in overseas revenue since listing and the first drop in overseas mix.** By subregion: Americas revenue was RMB 1.89 bn, down 16.5% YoY, **the steepest drop among overseas regions.** By channel: offline RMB 1.0 bn (+20% YoY; retail stores +22.5%, robot stores -1.4%), while online plunged 46% YoY to RMB 700 mn, **mainly as last year’s one-off online traffic—driven by shortages of Labubu—receded.** Europe & others delivered RMB 506 mn, up 5.9% YoY. By channel: offline RMB 410 mn (+50% YoY), **with offline mix at 82% (vs. 57.9% in 1H25), the highest offline dependence among regions,** while online fell 59% YoY to RMB 70 mn. **Dolphin Research views Europe as relatively healthy—the growth is almost entirely from steady store roll-out,** without the 2025 online-traffic bubble, hence less reversal pressure. APAC revenue was RMB 2.58 bn, down 9.7% YoY, remaining the largest overseas region. By channel: offline RMB 1.77 bn (+16.2% YoY), online RMB 640 mn (-39.8% YoY). **Within online, the self-developed app/official site still grew, while third-party platforms like Shopee collapsed—more akin to deliberate channel pruning.** Domestic online revenue was RMB 4.78 bn, up 63% YoY, clearly faster than offline, with mix rising from 35.5% to 39%. **Within that, the blind-box mini program (WeChat) alone reached RMB 2.06 bn (+83.3% YoY), the single largest growth driver for the company,** underscoring the power of proprietary interactive formats. The stark divergence between domestic and overseas online (+62.7% vs. -44.0% YoY) shows that **with the same company and IP portfolio, domestic online strength stems from proprietary interactive play plus a member ecosystem, while overseas online relied on IP heat and external traffic.** **II. Overseas store openings remain rapid** On store count, **domestic added a net 10 stores in 1H (9 in mainland China), effectively pausing expansion,** consistent with the prior stance of focusing on upgrades with limited white space. **Domestic revenue growth therefore came almost entirely from higher store productivity and online, not store count.** Overseas added a net 36 stores to 221 (+72.7% YoY; +22 Americas, +9 Europe, +5 APAC). Dolphin Research estimates average sales per overseas point fell 35%, driven by front-loaded site selection and pre-positioning. This should normalize as cohorts mature and traffic recovers. **III. THE MONSTERS cooled; Xingxingren took the baton** By IP, THE MONSTERS delivered RMB 4.45 bn (-7.5% YoY), **with mix down from 40% to 26.0%, the first semiannual absolute decline since it became the top IP, indicating waning freshness and scarcity premium.** Positively, **Xingxingren reached RMB 2.65 bn, with mix jumping to 15.4% as the No. 2 IP,** while ex-THE MONSTERS, other IPs grew +40% YoY. **This materially eases concerns over single-IP dependence.** Excluding both THE MONSTERS and Xingxingren, remaining IPs rose from RMB 8.67 bn to RMB 10.07 bn (+16.1% YoY)—decent, but with a visible slowdown in growth. Mid-tier IPs performed well overall: CRYBABY (+34.0%), DIMOO (+46.5%), and SKULLPANDA (+27.1%), with slight mix gains across the board. **Note that MOLLY fell 33.6% YoY, with mix down from 9.8% to 5.2%, showing that image refreshes for classic IPs are not always effective—aging is real.** **IV. Plush still dominates; figurines flat** By category, **plush posted RMB 9.83 bn (+60% YoY), with mix up from 44.2% to 57.2%, cementing its lead.** Figurines recorded RMB 5.19 bn, essentially flat, with mix down from 37.3% to 30.2%. Given figurines (blind boxes) underpin Pop Mart’s original model, this stall implies two things: **1) growth is now concentrated in plush, raising category and IP concentration; and 2) after penetration peaks, the core 'instant-feedback unboxing' mechanic struggles to drive incremental growth,** which also explains the Labubu 4.0 push into 'hair DIY + customization' to enhance playability. **V. Profitability: positive operating leverage in 1H26; the real test is 2H26** **GPM was 69.7%, down 0.7 pct YoY.** Despite an 11.4-pt drop in overseas mix, GPM only dipped 0.7 pct, indicating the higher plush mix (44.2%→57.2%) and supply-chain savings largely offset structural headwinds. Opex was disciplined, with slight declines in admin and selling ratios; **ex-FX, OPM rose 0.9 pct to 43.2%.** Related articles: Earnings Season Mar 26, 2025 earnings review '[Pop Mart: Pedal to the metal—can the rally last?](https://longbridge.cn/en/topics/33130874?channel=SH000001&invite-code=7XHHT4&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN&share_track_id=580d715f-b9ad-44ba-b439-78633899a2ee)' Mar 26, 2025 earnings review '[Pop Mart: Going global in style—an unstoppable surge?](https://longportapp.cn/en/topics/28377085?channel=t28377085&invite-code=7XHHT4&app_id=longbridge&utm_source=longbridge_app_share&locale=zh-CN)' Risk disclosure and disclaimer: [Dolphin Research disclaimer and general disclosures](https://support.longbridge.global/topics/misc/dolphin-disclaimer) ### Related Stocks - [09992.HK](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/09992.HK.md) - [HPPD.SG](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/HPPD.SG.md) - [PMRTY.US](https://longbridge.com/en/quote/PMRTY.US.md) ## Comments (2) - **新用户_EAfLri · 2026-08-20T14:36:26.000Z**: The color blocks representing the contribution of various IPs to Dolphin's total revenue do not match the corresponding IPs. Could you please fix this? - **海豚研究** (2026-08-20T15:43:41.000Z): Which picture?