---
title: "大摩经济学家：美元将在 2024 年初保持强势 美联储将于明年年中开始降息"
description: "摩根士丹利经济学家对美元在明年的前景进行了评估之后表示，预计美元的强势还将持续一段时间。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/102554001.md"
published_at: "2023-11-16T06:13:04.000Z"
---

# 大摩经济学家：美元将在 2024 年初保持强势 美联储将于明年年中开始降息

> 摩根士丹利经济学家对美元在明年的前景进行了评估之后表示，预计美元的强势还将持续一段时间。

智通财经 APP 获悉，摩根士丹利经济学家对美元在明年的前景进行了评估之后表示，预计美元的强势还将持续一段时间。经济学家指出，美国经济增长虽然放缓，但预计在 2024 年上半年将好于普遍预期，并保持在接近潜在增长率的水平。

经济学家还表示，美国相对于其他主要经济体的高利率将有利于美元。另外，由于美元在持续低增长的全球经济中具有相当强的防御性特征，再加上央行的紧缩政策和地缘政治风险带来的经济下行风险，美元可能会继续跑赢全球其他货币。经济学家指出，美元不仅提供流动性和避险地位，还提供高收益，这当然使其颇具吸引力。

不过，经济学家也预计，美元在明年初的强势不会持续一整年，在对经济的财政支持减少和高利率的影响开始显现的情况下，美国经济的增长将放缓。经济学家预计，美联储将于明年年中开始降息。

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