--- title: "Comprehensive cooling of inflation! The US June CPI turned negative for the first time in four years on a month-on-month basis, with the core year-on-year growth rate hitting a new low in over three years" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/208601515.md" description: "Expectations for interest rate cuts within the year have significantly increased, with the likelihood of the first rate cut in September rising to 80%, and the probability of a rate cut in July resurfacing" datetime: "2024-07-11T13:39:51.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/208601515.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/208601515.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/208601515.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/208601515.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/208601515.md) # Comprehensive cooling of inflation! The US June CPI turned negative for the first time in four years on a month-on-month basis, with the core year-on-year growth rate hitting a new low in over three years In June, U.S. inflation cooled significantly, with the overall CPI month-on-month growth rate turning negative for the first time in four years, and the core year-on-year growth rate hitting a new low in over three years. Expectations for interest rate cuts within the year have significantly increased, with the likelihood of a first rate cut in September rising to 80%, and the probability of a rate cut in July reappearing. On Thursday, July 11th, the U.S. Department of Labor released data showing that the U.S. CPI rose by 3% year-on-year in June, slightly lower than the expected 3.1%, and further declined from the previous value of 3.3%, with a 0.1% month-on-month decrease, in line with expectations, and the first negative turn since May 2020. The core CPI in June (excluding more volatile energy and food prices) rose by 3.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.4% and the previous value of 3.4%, marking the lowest level since April 2021; with a 0.1% month-on-month increase, below the expected and previous values of 0.2%, representing the smallest increase since August 2021. The closely watched super inflation indicator (core services CPI excluding housing) rose by 0.1% month-on-month, but the year-on-year increase fell below 5.0%. Following the data release, U.S. stock index futures surged, U.S. bond yields quickly fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by nearly 10 basis points, and the U.S. dollar index extending its decline. ## Will there be three rate cuts this year? It is worth noting that this is the third consecutive time that CPI has fallen below Wall Street expectations, reigniting expectations for a rate cut in July, with both the 3-month and 6-month annualized inflation rates showing declines. However, the probability of a rate cut in July is still very low at the moment. Meanwhile, derivative traders have raised the probability of the Fed starting rate cuts in September from around 70% before the data release to over 80%. For the full year 2024, contracts imply a rate cut of 57 basis points, indicating at least two 25 basis points rate cuts; Earlier by about 49 basis points. "The prerequisites for starting rate cuts in September and issuing a series of subsequent rate cut signals are now in place," said Ed Al-Hussainy, interest rate strategist at Columbia Threadneedle Investment. Traders expect a 25% chance of the Fed cutting rates three times by 25 basis points within the year. ## Gasoline prices fall, housing inflation is accelerating slowdown By sector, the year-on-year inflation rates for goods and services both declined **, with the price increase for goods narrowing to the lowest level since February this year.** **** Specifically: In June, energy prices rose by 1% year-on-year, fell by 2.0% month-on-month, the same as the previous month. Among them, after a 3.6% month-on-month decline in May, gasoline prices fell by 3.8% in June, offsetting the impact of rising housing prices; down by 2.5% year-on-year. Prices of used cars and trucks fell by 1.5% month-on-month, communication costs fell by 0.2%, and new car prices fell by 0.2%. **Focusing on housing inflation in the core CPI, it is accelerating its slowdown:** > Looking at the month-on-month data, housing prices rose by 0.2% in June. Among them, rents rose by 0.3% that month, and the Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER) also rose by 0.3%, **both the smallest increases since August 2021.** In addition, the index for lodging away from home fell by 2.0% in June, compared to a 0.1% decrease in May. > > Looking at the year-on-year data, the housing inflation rate in June fell by 5.16% year-on-year, lower than the 5.41% in May, the lowest level since May 2022; rent inflation rose by 5.07% year-on-year in June, lower than the 5.30% in May, the lowest level since April 2022. > > ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Here's How Much $100 Invested In abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth Today](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281394387.md) - [Destiny Tech100 Stock Rises After SpaceX IPO Rumors](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281415250.md) - [BREAKINGVIEWS-SpaceX IPO will gauge market moxie more than depth](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281406751.md) - [Palantir vs. Oracle: 1 AI Stock Looks Cheap](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281400403.md) - [BUZZ-Rosenblatt says finding partner for Snap's smart glasses unit tough](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281357569.md)