---
title: "Citigroup raises oil price bullish market forecast: may rise to $120"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/216845155.md"
description: "Citigroup raised its average price expectation for Brent crude oil in a bullish scenario from $80 per barrel to $120 per barrel, with the likelihood increasing from 10% to 20%. Analysts pointed out that the new bullish scenario is based on concerns about supply disruptions, similar to the situation during the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022. In a bearish scenario, the average price is expected to be $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025. Current risks include potential Israeli attacks on Iran and disruptions to oil flow in the Strait of Hormuz"
datetime: "2024-10-15T09:16:27.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/216845155.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/216845155.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/216845155.md)
---

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# Citigroup raises oil price bullish market forecast: may rise to $120

However, the analysts at the institution **have raised their average price expectations for Brent crude in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year in a bullish scenario from $80 per barrel to $120 per barrel, while increasing the likelihood of this outcome from 10% to 20%.**

"Our new bullish scenario is based on concerns about supply disruptions, and we are concerned that the scale and duration will be similar to what happened in 2022," Citigroup said, referring to the surge in oil prices caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

According to Citigroup's analysis, the actual supply losses at that time peaked at less than 1 million barrels per day, well below the expected 2 to 3 million barrels per day.

Citigroup added that although the damage caused by the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran may be higher than when the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted, "higher levels of spare capacity and inventory levels, as well as a weak demand environment, could mean a similar price response."

**In a bearish scenario (including OPEC+ increasing production starting in December and reduced risks of supply disruptions), Citigroup expects the average price of Brent crude to be $60 per barrel in the fourth quarter and $55 per barrel in the first quarter of 2025.**

Citigroup stated that current risks include attacks by Israel on Iran's oil infrastructure or disruptions to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, adding that it believes the latter scenario is unlikely. "Supply losses could also come from any Iranian response targeting energy assets in the region," Citigroup added.

The market is awaiting Israel's response to Iran's large-scale missile attack on October 1st. Overnight, US media reported that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu informed US President Biden that Israel would not attack Iran's oil and nuclear facilities, leading to a mid-day plunge in oil prices.

However, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office later responded that Israel had heard the US opinion but would make the final decision independently based on Israel's national interests

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