---
title: "6400 points! UBS Group AG continues to raise next year's expectations for US stocks"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/216896288.md"
description: "UBS Group AG has raised its S&P 500 index target for 2025 from 6000 points to 6400 points, expecting the US stock market to hit a new high in 2025. The bank's strategist Jonathan Golub pointed out that with a strong economic backdrop, nominal GDP is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025. Rate cuts will reduce interest expenses and default risks, boosting earnings per share and valuations. Although the 2024 outlook has been slightly lowered to 5850 points, Golub believes that US stocks may consolidate by the end of 2024"
datetime: "2024-10-15T14:53:54.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/216896288.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/216896288.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/216896288.md)
---

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# 6400 points! UBS Group AG continues to raise next year's expectations for US stocks

UBS expects the U.S. stock market to hit a new high in 2025, with the bank's strategist Jonathan Golub raising the target price for the S&P 500 index from 6000 points to 6400 points in a report released to clients on Tuesday. The new forecast implies a 9.2% increase from Monday's closing price.

Golub pointed out that a favorable economic backdrop is the catalyst for this change. "UBS economists expect U.S. nominal GDP to grow by 3.7% in 2025, roughly in line with the long-term average," he said. Additionally, "rate cuts should reduce interest expenses and default risks, thereby increasing earnings per share and valuations."

Golub's call came a day after the S&P 500 index hit a historic high, with the index already up nearly 23% year-to-date. Due to investors expecting the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in the coming months, the stock market has been on a strong uptrend recently.

"In a non-recessionary environment, when the Fed cuts rates, U.S. stock valuations typically rise," the strategist noted. "Despite high valuations, we expect price-to-earnings ratios to increase."

Golub also pointed out, "A significant drop in the federal funds rate could increase profit margins by 20 basis points through lower interest expenses."

The Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group's FedWatch tool shows that traders expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points in November and further cut by 25 basis points in December.

The Fed cut the benchmark federal funds rate by 50 basis points in September to a range of 4.75% to 5.0%.

It is certain that Golub does not believe U.S. stocks will continue to rise for the remainder of this year. While he raised his 2024 expectation for the benchmark index from 5600 points to 5850 points, this actually implies a slight decline from the current level.

According to UBS's outlook, U.S. stocks may consolidate before hitting a new high next year. The bank wrote, "Despite Wall Street estimates (and our own models) attempting to reflect more normal growth levels against a better backdrop of discretionary consumer spending, the timing of this recovery remains very uncertain."

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