<p>成为成功的投资者只需要几个技能：知道何时买入和何时卖出。虽然听起来简单，但如果你在这两方面都表现出色，你将获得惊人的回报。有一只流行的人工智能（AI）股票在年初时是买入，现在已经转为卖出类别。那就是 <strong>Palantir</strong>（PLTR 6.22%）。</p>
<p>Palantir 在 2024 年取得了惊人的成功，股价增长了四倍以上。然而，股票与业务之间的联系已经断裂，我认为它在 2025 年可能会大幅回落。因此，投资者最好趁机获利了结。</p>
<h2>Palantir 的业务正在利用 AI 军备竞赛</h2>
<p>不幸的是，Palantir 的业务和股票之间的脱节意味着它的表现非常出色，并且很可能在 2025 年及以后保持这种状态。</p>
<p>Palantir 的特定应用 AI 模型帮助客户进行决策，并在商业和政府部门得到了广泛应用。其最新推出的产品之一迅速成为最受欢迎的产品之一，即人工智能平台（AIP）。AIP 允许客户将 AI 应用集成到他们的工作流程中，而不是将其作为旁边的工具使用。这使得企业能够控制输入这些 AI 模型的数据，而不是将其交给第三方 AI 平台，这在处理政府涉及的敏感信息时可能会出现问题。</p>
<p>自从 AI 军备竞赛开始以来，Palantir 的 AI 产品需求激增，这转化为公司强劲的业绩。</p>
<p>在第三季度，Palantir 的收入同比增长 30%，达到 7.26 亿美元。美国客户的支出超过了国际客户，美国商业收入同比增长 54%，达到 1.79 亿美元，美国政府收入同比增长 40%，达到 3.20 亿美元。Palantir 的盈利能力也相当稳健，连续第二个季度的利润率约为 20%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/01528473b4886adb88cb2121d823c04a.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/01528473b4886adb88cb2121d823c04a.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 利润率（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>仅凭这些信息，可以理解为什么 Palantir 吸引了大量投资者的关注。它在一个投资者目前关注的领域快速增长。</p>
<p>Palantir 作为一家公司表现非常出色，我预测 2025 年将有强劲的业绩。问题在于其股票与这些基本面结果脱节。</p>
<h2>股票与业务脱节</h2>
<p>如前所述，Palantir 的股票上涨超过 300%，但其收入增长仅为其十分之一。因此，股票的估值变得非常高，交易时的估值令人难以置信。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fc5c8495ae3203cd67bd0d49cf2c31b4.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fc5c8495ae3203cd67bd0d49cf2c31b4.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR 市销率数据来自 YCharts</p>
<p>以 64.5 倍的销售额，Palantir 的估值超过了过去三年 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的最高水平（45 倍销售额）。尽管利润率显著低于 Nvidia，且增长速度远远慢于 Nvidia，但它仍然达到了这一水平。当 Nvidia 达到该估值时，其下一季度的收入增长了三倍。以 Palantir 目前的增长率（30%）来看，三倍收入需要四年以上的时间。</p>
<p>Palantir 的估值没有任何部分是合理的，这很不幸，因为该公司表现得如此出色。</p>
<p>让我们花一点时间评估 Palantir 的绝对最佳情况。它将包括以下因素：</p>
<ul>
<li>收入增长加速至 40%。</li>
<li>利润率从 20% 上升至 30%，以匹配软件领导者 <strong>Adobe</strong>。</li>
<li>以 50 倍的市盈率交易。</li>
<li>忽略股票补偿的影响（这是一个糟糕的假设，因为 Palantir 的股份数量因大量股票补偿而在过去一年中增长了 3.5%）。</li>
</ul>
<p>如果 Palantir 实现这四项内容，股价必须在当前水平上维持超过四年，以实现 50 倍的市盈率估值。所有这些都是极具攻击性的假设，可能不会实现，进一步说明了 Palantir 的股票变得多么昂贵。</p>
<p>因此，我认为 Palantir 的股票在 2025 年某个时候崩溃的可能性非常高。股票中已经包含了过多的增长预期，而投资者最终会决定大规模获利了结，这将导致股票即使在业务表现良好的情况下也会面临困难。</p>

PLTR

<p>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 的股价在 2024 年飙升超过 300%，尽管其收入仅增长了 30%。分析师预测，由于其 64.5 倍的高估值，远超竞争对手如 Nvidia，预计到 2025 年股价可能会下滑。虽然 Palantir 的业务蓬勃发展，AI 产品需求强劲，利润率约为 20%，但股价与业务基本面之间的脱节引发了担忧。建议投资者在预计 2025 年股价崩盘之前锁定利润</p>

<p>Being a successful investor requires just a few skills: knowing when to buy and knowing when to sell. Although it sounds simple, you'll have incredible returns if you're the best at both. There's one popular artificial intelligence (AI) stock that was a buy at the beginning of the year that has now moved into the sell category. That's <strong>Palantir</strong>(PLTR 6.22%).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>成为成功的投资者只需要几个技能：知道何时买入和何时卖出。虽然听起来简单，但如果你在这两方面都表现出色，你将获得惊人的回报。有一只流行的人工智能（AI）股票在年初时是买入，现在已经转为卖出类别。那就是 <strong>Palantir</strong>（PLTR 6.22%）。</p>
</div><p>Palantir has been an incredible success in 2024, with the stock price more than quadrupling. However, the stock has become disconnected from the business, and I think there's a high likelihood that it could come falling back down to earth in 2025. As a result, it's best that investors take their profits and run.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 在 2024 年取得了惊人的成功，股价增长了四倍以上。然而，股票与业务之间的联系已经断裂，我认为它在 2025 年可能会大幅回落。因此，投资者最好趁机获利了结。</p>
</div><h2>Palantir's business is capitalizing on the AI arms race</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Palantir 的业务正在利用 AI 军备竞赛</h2>
</div><p>The unfortunate thing about Palantir's business and stock becoming disconnected is that it is doing incredibly well and will likely maintain that status quo throughout 2025 and beyond.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不幸的是，Palantir 的业务和股票之间的脱节意味着它的表现非常出色，并且很可能在 2025 年及以后保持这种状态。</p>
</div><p>Palantir's application-specific AI models aid their clients in decision-making and have found heavy usage in the commercial and government sectors. One of its newer products that has quickly emerged as one of its most popular is its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP). AIP allows its clients to build AI applications into their workflows rather than using it as a tool on the side. This allows businesses to control the data that gets plugged into these AI models rather than having it go to a third-party AI platform, which could present an issue when sensitive information that the government deals with is used.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的特定应用 AI 模型帮助客户进行决策，并在商业和政府部门得到了广泛应用。其最新推出的产品之一迅速成为最受欢迎的产品之一，即人工智能平台（AIP）。AIP 允许客户将 AI 应用集成到他们的工作流程中，而不是将其作为旁边的工具使用。这使得企业能够控制输入这些 AI 模型的数据，而不是将其交给第三方 AI 平台，这在处理政府涉及的敏感信息时可能会出现问题。</p>
</div><p>Since the AI arms race kicked off, Palantir's AI products have seen a surge in demand, which has translated into strong performance for the company.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>自从 AI 军备竞赛开始以来，Palantir 的 AI 产品需求激增，这转化为公司强劲的业绩。</p>
</div><p>In Q3, Palantir's revenue rose 30% year over year to $726 million. U.S. clients spent more than their international counterparts, with U.S. commercial revenue rising 54% year over year to $179 million and U.S. government revenue rising 40% year over year to $320 million. Palantir is also solidly profitable, posting a profit margin of around 20% for the second straight quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在第三季度，Palantir 的收入同比增长 30%，达到 7.26 亿美元。美国客户的支出超过了国际客户，美国商业收入同比增长 54%，达到 1.79 亿美元，美国政府收入同比增长 40%，达到 3.20 亿美元。Palantir 的盈利能力也相当稳健，连续第二个季度的利润率约为 20%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/01528473b4886adb88cb2121d823c04a.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/01528473b4886adb88cb2121d823c04a.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 利润率（季度）数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>With just this information, it's understandable why Palantir has received a lot of investment interest. It's growing rapidly in an area that investors are focused on right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅凭这些信息，可以理解为什么 Palantir 吸引了大量投资者的关注。它在一个投资者目前关注的领域快速增长。</p>
</div><p>Palantir is doing incredibly well as a business, and I predict strong results for 2025. The problem is that its stock has disconnected from these fundamental results.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 作为一家公司表现非常出色，我预测 2025 年将有强劲的业绩。问题在于其股票与这些基本面结果脱节。</p>
</div><h2>The stock and the business are disconnected</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>股票与业务脱节</h2>
</div><p>As mentioned earlier, Palantir's stock is up by over 300%, yet its revenue growth is a tenth of that. As a result, the stock has become highly valued, trading at an unbelievable valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如前所述，Palantir 的股票上涨超过 300%，但其收入增长仅为其十分之一。因此，股票的估值变得非常高，交易时的估值令人难以置信。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fc5c8495ae3203cd67bd0d49cf2c31b4.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/fc5c8495ae3203cd67bd0d49cf2c31b4.png"/></p>
<p>PLTR PS Ratio data by YCharts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>PLTR 市销率数据来自 YCharts</p>
</div><p>At 64.5 times sales, Palantir has eclipsed the highest level <strong>Nvidia</strong> traded at over the past three years (45 times sales). Despite significantly lower profit margins and far slower growth, it has done this. When Nvidia achieved that valuation, it tripled its revenue the following quarter. At Palantir's current growth rate (30%), it would take over four years to triple its revenue.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以 64.5 倍的销售额，Palantir 的估值超过了过去三年 <strong>Nvidia</strong> 的最高水平（45 倍销售额）。尽管利润率显著低于 Nvidia，且增长速度远远慢于 Nvidia，但它仍然达到了这一水平。当 Nvidia 达到该估值时，其下一季度的收入增长了三倍。以 Palantir 目前的增长率（30%）来看，三倍收入需要四年以上的时间。</p>
</div><p>No part of Palantir's valuation makes sense, which is unfortunate because the company is doing so well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Palantir 的估值没有任何部分是合理的，这很不幸，因为该公司表现得如此出色。</p>
</div><p>Let's take a second to assess the absolute best-case scenario for Palantir. It would include these factors:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>让我们花一点时间评估 Palantir 的绝对最佳情况。它将包括以下因素：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Revenue growth accelerates to 40%.</li>
<li>Profit margin rises from 20% to 30% to match software leader <strong>Adobe</strong>.</li>
<li>It trades for 50 times trailing earnings.</li>
<li>Effects of stock-based compensation are ignored (this is a terrible assumption, as Palantir's share count rose 3.5% this past year thanks to hefty stock-based compensation).</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>收入增长加速至 40%。</li>
<li>利润率从 20% 上升至 30%，以匹配软件领导者 <strong>Adobe</strong>。</li>
<li>以 50 倍的市盈率交易。</li>
<li>忽略股票补偿的影响（这是一个糟糕的假设，因为 Palantir 的股份数量因大量股票补偿而在过去一年中增长了 3.5%）。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>If Palantir achieved these four items, the stock price would have to stay at its current level for over four years to achieve the 50 times trailing earnings valuation. All of these are extremely aggressive assumptions that likely won't come true, further illustrating how expensive Palantir's stock has become.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Palantir 实现这四项内容，股价必须在当前水平上维持超过四年，以实现 50 倍的市盈率估值。所有这些都是极具攻击性的假设，可能不会实现，进一步说明了 Palantir 的股票变得多么昂贵。</p>
</div><p>As a result, I think there's a very high likelihood that Palantir's stock will crash <em>sometime</em> in 2025. There is just too much growth baked into the stock for its current growth levels, and investors will eventually decide to take profits en masse, which will cause the stock to struggle even if the business is doing well.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，我认为 Palantir 的股票在 2025 年某个时候崩溃的可能性非常高。股票中已经包含了过多的增长预期，而投资者最终会决定大规模获利了结，这将导致股票即使在业务表现良好的情况下也会面临困难。</p>
</div>

Prediction: This Popular Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Will Fall Hard in 2025

- Palantir 股票在 2024 年上涨超过 300%，但其收入增长仅为 30%。  
- 公司在 AI 领域表现强劲，Q3 收入同比增长 30%。  
- 由于估值过高，预计 Palantir 股票在 2025 年可能会大幅下跌。

Motley Fool

预测：这只受欢迎的人工智能（AI）股票将在 2025 年大幅下跌