---
title: "The \"sell\" signal in the US stock market: everyone has bought in!"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/223030033.md"
description: "Bank of America’s Hartnett pointed out that since June 2020, overall sentiment on Wall Street has surged, leading traders' cash levels to drop to a record 3.9%, which is seen as a \"sell signal.\" This signal, after being triggered 12 times in the past, typically results in a global stock return of -2.4% within one month and -0.7% within three months. Although false alarms do occur occasionally, most signals have triggered significant sell-offs"
datetime: "2024-12-22T23:55:55.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/223030033.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/223030033.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/223030033.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/223030033.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/223030033.md)


# The "sell" signal in the US stock market: everyone has bought in!

Bank of America’s Hartnett believes:

Overall sentiment has surged since June 2020, and the excitement among Wall Street professionals has spiraled out of control...

Ultimately leading to **traders' cash levels (i.e., no longer having "off-market funds") plummeting to record lows, as they shifted all their funds into stocks.**

\*\*

Specifically, **FMS cash levels dropped from 4.3% of AUM to 3.9%, marking the lowest level since June 2021**. (Figure 1)

“FMS cash allocation only represents a significant top for risk assets when close to the December 2024 level (January to March 2002, February 2011),” **FMS cash trading rules stipulate that 3.9% = 'sell signal'**.

How accurate is this signal? Hartnett wrote, **since 2011, there have been 12 previous 'sell' signals, which led to a global stock (ACWI) return of -2.4% within one month of triggering the 'sell' signal, and a global stock (ACWI) return of -0.7% within three months of triggering the 'sell' signal. Therefore, while occasional false alarms occur (all in 2021), most signals led to some very significant sell-offs. (Figure 2)**

### 相关股票

- [Bank of America (BAC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BAC.US.md)
- [Proshares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/TQQQ.US.md)
- [Proshares UltraPro Short QQQ ETF (SQQQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SQQQ.US.md)
- [Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.DJI.US.md)
- [NASDAQ Composite Index (.IXIC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.IXIC.US.md)
- [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md)

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