---
title: "India's trade deficit hits a record high, global inflation continues to ease, and some central banks are nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycle --- 1225 Macro Dehydration"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/223278565.md"
description: "The Indian economy showed signs of recovery in November and December, but macro stability remains uneven, with a weak CPI and a trade deficit expanding to record highs. Global core inflation is expected to slow to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of next year. G10 central banks are cautious about interest rate cuts following policy easing, and the likelihood of halting rate cuts increases if unemployment rises or policy rates remain high"
datetime: "2024-12-25T15:05:33.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/223278565.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/223278565.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/223278565.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/223278565.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/223278565.md)


# India's trade deficit hits a record high, global inflation continues to ease, and some central banks are nearing the end of their rate-cutting cycle --- 1225 Macro Dehydration

-   Compared to the weakness from September to October 2024, the Indian economy showed signs of recovery in November and December. Macroeconomic stability remains mixed, with a weak CPI and a trade deficit expanding to record highs. Growth may improve in the second half of the year, driven by agriculture and government spending.
    
-   The global core inflation rate is expected to slow to 2.8% in the fourth quarter of next year, but more extreme changes in U.S. trade and immigration policies pose upside risks and may exacerbate existing disparities between countries.
    
-   The G10 central banks have taken a cautious approach to interest rate cuts following initial policy easing after historical soft landings. The likelihood of G10 central banks halting rate cuts significantly decreases if the unemployment rate rises or if policy rates remain relatively high compared to neutral levels. In previous soft landings, central banks typically ended their rate-cutting cycles when rates were below neutral, especially in the context of rising unemployment

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