<p>根据《金融时报》的一份独家报道，加密货币的日益普及以及与激进比特币（<strong>BTC-USD</strong>）购买同义的公司 MicroStrategy（MSTR）在 15 万亿美元的全球交易所交易基金（ETF）市场中引发了罕见的结构性挑战。虽然 ETF 通常表现如预期，但两只在美国上市的杠杆 MicroStrategy 基金的迅猛增长在最近几周暴露出了显著的跟踪误差，引发了投资者的担忧。</p>
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<p>苹果公司（AAPL）大胆请求参与美国司法部针对谷歌（GOOGL）的反垄断审判，表明谷歌无法充分辩护与该公司的收入分享协议。苹果与谷歌之间有一项收入分享协议，使谷歌成为苹果 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎——这一协议在 2022 年为苹果带来了约 200 亿美元的收入。</p>
<p>跟踪误差是指数基金的回报与其基准指数之间的差异。</p>
<h2><strong>MSTR 如何影响 ETF？</strong></h2>
<p>MicroStrategy 是最大的企业比特币持有者，其加密货币储备高达 430 亿美元，主要通过债务融资。像 T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF（MSTU）和 Defiance Daily Target 1.75x Long MSTR ETF（MSTX）这样的杠杆 ETF 目标是实现该波动性股票每日回报的两倍。这两只 ETF 于今年早些时候推出。然而，到 11 月中旬，它们的表现开始偏离预期。</p>
<p>例如，根据 FactSet 的数据，11 月 21 日，MSTU 下跌了 25.3%，比 MicroStrategy 当天下跌 16% 时应有的 7 个百分点要低。相反，在 11 月 25 日，MSTU 损失了 11.3%，而它本应仅下降 8.7%。MSTX 也面临类似的差异，包括在 11 月 25 日下跌了 13.4%——比预期差了 4.7 个百分点。</p>
<p>根据《金融时报》的报道，这表明虽然这两只 ETF 自推出以来相对准确地跟踪了 MSTR 的回报，但从 11 月中旬开始出现了跟踪误差。</p>
<h2><strong>这两只 ETF 的跟踪误差为何出现？</strong></h2>
<p>根本问题在于这些 ETF 的庞大规模，在对比特币的热情日益高涨的情况下，吸引了数十亿美元的日常资产。这种需求超出了主要经纪商提供的总回报掉期的供应，而总回报掉期是精确跟踪的关键工具。总回报掉期是两方之间的合同，其中一方支付固定利率，另一方根据基础资产的总回报支付。</p>
<p>因此，这些基金依赖于看涨期权，而看涨期权在反映所需敞口方面效果较差。看涨期权是一种合同，卖方授予买方在特定日期（到期日）之前以预定价格（行使价）购买基础资产的权利。</p>
<p>然而，报告引用了 FactSet 全球基金分析主管 Elisabeth Kashner 的话：“基础资产的波动性越大（在这里是 MSTR 股票），期权对冲的效果就越差。”</p>
<p>Roundhill Investments 的首席执行官 Dave Mazza 解释道：“这不是一个 ‘ETF’ 问题，甚至不是一个 ‘杠杆 ETF’ 问题——这是一个 MicroStrategy ETF 问题。” Mazza 补充说，这些基金间接暴露于 MicroStrategy 市值的 10% 以上，这是前所未有的。他进一步指出，经纪商不愿意为如此高风险的策略提供额外的掉期，这表明与波动性股票相关的杠杆 ETF 面临更广泛的挑战。</p>
<h2><strong>MSTR 股票值得购买吗？</strong></h2>
<p>分析师对 MSTR 股票持乐观态度，基于一致的八个买入评级，给予强烈买入的共识评级。在过去一年中，MSTR 的股价飙升超过 400%，而 MSTR 的平均目标价为 529.57 美元，意味着从当前水平来看有 47.8% 的上涨潜力。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-1033.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-1033.png"/></p>
<p><strong>查看更多 MSTR 分析师评级</strong></p>

2 倍做多 MSTR ETF - Defiance

MSTR

<p>Microstrategy 的激进比特币购买导致了 15 万亿美元 ETF 市场的结构性挑战，导致两个杠杆 ETF，MSTU 和 MSTX，出现了显著的跟踪误差。这些基金于今年早些时候推出，自 11 月中旬以来，其表现与预期出现了偏差。问题的根源在于对比特币的高需求超过了总回报掉期的供应，迫使其依赖于效果较差的看涨期权。尽管面临这些挑战，分析师对 MSTR 股票仍持乐观态度，达成强烈买入共识，潜在上涨空间为 47.8%</p>

<p>The rising popularity of cryptocurrency and the company synonymous with aggressive Bitcoin ( <strong>BTC-USD</strong>) buying, MicroStrategy (MSTR), have triggered rare structural challenges within the $15 trillion global exchange-traded funds (ETF) market, according to an exclusive <em>Financial Times</em> report. While ETFs generally perform as expected, the meteoric growth of two U.S.-listed leveraged MicroStrategy funds has revealed significant tracking errors in recent weeks, raising concerns among investors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据《金融时报》的一份独家报道，加密货币的日益普及以及与激进比特币（<strong>BTC-USD</strong>）购买同义的公司 MicroStrategy（MSTR）在 15 万亿美元的全球交易所交易基金（ETF）市场中引发了罕见的结构性挑战。虽然 ETF 通常表现如预期，但两只在美国上市的杠杆 MicroStrategy 基金的迅猛增长在最近几周暴露出了显著的跟踪误差，引发了投资者的担忧。</p>
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<li>通过 Smart Investor Newsletter 每周的专家股票推荐，做出更明智的投资决策</li>
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</div><p>Apple (AAPL) has taken a bold step by requesting to participate in the U.S. Department of Justice’s antitrust trial against Google (GOOGL), signaling that Google cannot adequately defend its revenue-sharing agreements with the company. Apple and Google have a revenue-sharing agreement that makes Google the default search engine on Apple’s Safari browser—a deal that brought Apple an estimated $20 billion in 2022 alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>苹果公司（AAPL）大胆请求参与美国司法部针对谷歌（GOOGL）的反垄断审判，表明谷歌无法充分辩护与该公司的收入分享协议。苹果与谷歌之间有一项收入分享协议，使谷歌成为苹果 Safari 浏览器的默认搜索引擎——这一协议在 2022 年为苹果带来了约 200 亿美元的收入。</p>
</div><p>Tracking error is the difference between an index fund’s returns and its benchmark index.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>跟踪误差是指数基金的回报与其基准指数之间的差异。</p>
</div><h2><strong>How Is MSTR Impacting ETFs?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>MSTR 如何影响 ETF？</strong></h2>
</div><p>MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, has a cryptocurrency stash of $43 billion fueled by debt. Leveraged ETFs like the T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF (MSTU) and the Defiance Daily Target 1.75x Long MSTR ETF (MSTX) target twice the daily return of this volatile stock. These two ETFs were launched earlier this year. However, by mid-November, their performance began diverging from expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>MicroStrategy 是最大的企业比特币持有者，其加密货币储备高达 430 亿美元，主要通过债务融资。像 T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF（MSTU）和 Defiance Daily Target 1.75x Long MSTR ETF（MSTX）这样的杠杆 ETF 目标是实现该波动性股票每日回报的两倍。这两只 ETF 于今年早些时候推出。然而，到 11 月中旬，它们的表现开始偏离预期。</p>
</div><p>On November 21, for instance, MSTU fell 25.3%, citing FactSet data, which was 7 percentage points less than it should have been as MicroStrategy dropped 16% that day. Conversely, on November 25, MSTU lost 11.3% when it should have declined only 8.7%. MSTX faced similar discrepancies, including a 13.4% drop on November 25—4.7 percentage points worse than expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，根据 FactSet 的数据，11 月 21 日，MSTU 下跌了 25.3%，比 MicroStrategy 当天下跌 16% 时应有的 7 个百分点要低。相反，在 11 月 25 日，MSTU 损失了 11.3%，而它本应仅下降 8.7%。MSTX 也面临类似的差异，包括在 11 月 25 日下跌了 13.4%——比预期差了 4.7 个百分点。</p>
</div><p>According to the <em>Financial Times</em> report, this shows that while the two ETFs tracked MSTR’s returns fairly accurately since their launch, tracking errors began appearing in mid-November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据《金融时报》的报道，这表明虽然这两只 ETF 自推出以来相对准确地跟踪了 MSTR 的回报，但从 11 月中旬开始出现了跟踪误差。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Why Is the Tracking Error Creeping in These Two ETFs?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>这两只 ETF 的跟踪误差为何出现？</strong></h2>
</div><p>The underlying issue lies in the sheer size of these ETFs, which have attracted billions in daily assets amid growing fervor for Bitcoin. This demand has outstripped the supply of total return swaps from prime brokers, a critical tool for precise tracking. A total return swap is a contract between two parties where one party pays a fixed rate, and the other party pays based on the total return of an underlying asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根本问题在于这些 ETF 的庞大规模，在对比特币的热情日益高涨的情况下，吸引了数十亿美元的日常资产。这种需求超出了主要经纪商提供的总回报掉期的供应，而总回报掉期是精确跟踪的关键工具。总回报掉期是两方之间的合同，其中一方支付固定利率，另一方根据基础资产的总回报支付。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, the funds have relied on call options, which are less effective in mirroring the desired exposure. A call option is a contract where the seller grants the buyer the right to purchase the underlying asset at a pre-specified price (strike price) by a specific date (expiration date).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，这些基金依赖于看涨期权，而看涨期权在反映所需敞口方面效果较差。看涨期权是一种合同，卖方授予买方在特定日期（到期日）之前以预定价格（行使价）购买基础资产的权利。</p>
</div><p>However, the report quoted Elisabeth Kashner, director of global fund analytics at FactSet: “The greater the volatility [in the underlying asset, here MSTR stock], the less perfect the options hedge.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，报告引用了 FactSet 全球基金分析主管 Elisabeth Kashner 的话：“基础资产的波动性越大（在这里是 MSTR 股票），期权对冲的效果就越差。”</p>
</div><p>Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments, explained: “This isn’t an ‘ETF’ problem or even a ‘leveraged ETF’ problem—this is a MicroStrategy ETF problem.” Mazza added that these funds had indirect exposure to more than 10% of MicroStrategy’s market cap, which is unprecedented. He further noted that brokers are reluctant to provide additional swaps for such high-risk strategies, signaling broader challenges for leveraged ETFs tied to volatile stocks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Roundhill Investments 的首席执行官 Dave Mazza 解释道：“这不是一个 ‘ETF’ 问题，甚至不是一个 ‘杠杆 ETF’ 问题——这是一个 MicroStrategy ETF 问题。” Mazza 补充说，这些基金间接暴露于 MicroStrategy 市值的 10% 以上，这是前所未有的。他进一步指出，经纪商不愿意为如此高风险的策略提供额外的掉期，这表明与波动性股票相关的杠杆 ETF 面临更广泛的挑战。</p>
</div><h2><strong>Is MSTR Stock a Good Buy?</strong></h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2><strong>MSTR 股票值得购买吗？</strong></h2>
</div><p>Analysts remain bullish about MSTR stock, with a Strong Buy consensus rating based on a unanimous eight Buys. Over the past year, MSTR has skyrocketed by more than 400%, and the average MSTR price target of $529.57 implies an upside potential of 47.8% from current levels.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师对 MSTR 股票持乐观态度，基于一致的八个买入评级，给予强烈买入的共识评级。在过去一年中，MSTR 的股价飙升超过 400%，而 MSTR 的平均目标价为 529.57 美元，意味着从当前水平来看有 47.8% 的上涨潜力。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-1033.png" alt="" original-src="https://blog.tipranks.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/image-1033.png"/></p>
<p><strong>See more MSTR analyst ratings</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>查看更多 MSTR 分析师评级</strong></p>
</div>

MicroStrategy（NASDAQ:MSTR）的繁荣引发了 ETF 市场的混乱