--- title: "高盛推出 DOGE 追踪器以监测华盛顿特区实时经济影响" description: "高盛推出了一项新的美国政府活动月度跟踪器，以监测华盛顿特区联邦机构重组对经济的影响，特别是在大规模裁员和支出削减的背景下。首席经济学家 Jan Hatzius 报告称，已有 49,300 名联邦员工受到影响，初次失业救济申请人数上升。虽然联邦支出削减已得到确认，但整体劳动市场的影响仍然有限。联邦员工的消费者信心下降，受到政府支出削减影响的公司市场表现也在下滑。Hatzius 认为，这些变化对宏观经" type: "news" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/234563696.md" published_at: "2025-04-04T11:45:30.000Z" --- # 高盛推出 DOGE 追踪器以监测华盛顿特区实时经济影响 > 高盛推出了一项新的美国政府活动月度跟踪器，以监测华盛顿特区联邦机构重组对经济的影响，特别是在大规模裁员和支出削减的背景下。首席经济学家 Jan Hatzius 报告称，已有 49,300 名联邦员工受到影响，初次失业救济申请人数上升。虽然联邦支出削减已得到确认，但整体劳动市场的影响仍然有限。联邦员工的消费者信心下降，受到政府支出削减影响的公司市场表现也在下滑。Hatzius 认为，这些变化对宏观经济的影响有限 Our conversation with a few institutional desks suggests a **growing interest in the downstream economic impact of DOGE-related federal agency restructurings** across Washington, DC—particularly with USAID neutered, the Department of Education dismantled, and numerous other agencies experiencing tens of thousands of job cuts. Additionally, the termination of federal contractors and NGO staff raises further concerns that the nation's capital—fueled mainly by taxpayer dollars—**could face outsized economic disruption**. *Goldman Chief Economist Jan Hatzius* shared new insights with clients on Sunday, unveiling an economic snapshot of the DC metro area economy through the firm's new**Monthly U.S. Government Activity**—a data dashboard that monitors DC government employment, spending, and other economic trends. Hatzius said thefirst two months of the second Trump administration had featured federal agency restructuring,spending cuts, and federal layoffs, prompting his team to launch themonthly U.S. Government Activity Tracker to monitor employment and spending trends. **Jobs data so farindicates early signs** of reduction in the government workforce,with 49.3k employees (1.6% of the workforce) affected. This includes21k probationary workers, along with**further cuts planned at agencies like the VA, DoD, IRS, and HHS**.Initial unemployment claims for federal workers rose in late February (read here) and early March but have since moderated, while **DC job postings on Indeed.com are down 11% since January**. Hatzius noted that thebroader labor market impact remains minimal. **Federal spending shows some confirmed cuts**, particularly at the State Department and FCC, though total cash withdrawals from the Treasuryalign with historical norms.**Contract awards have fallen slightly,while grant awards havestagnated below trend since Inauguration Day**.Government travel has also slowed,but DC airport traffic remains stable, while**DC Metrorail ridership surged as federal workers were called back to the office**. Data fromMorning Consult shows **consumer sentiment among federal workers has soured**, especially across the DC metro area since the start of the year. ## **Here's theU.S. Government Activity Tracker snapshot for March:** ## **Employment** **Reduction in Force Orders Have Affected an Estimated 49.3k Federal Employees So Far** **Initial Unemployment Claims Filed by Federal Employees Remain Elevated** **Further RIF Layoffs Have Been Reported at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Department of Defense, and Internal Revenue Service** **Job Openings in Washington DC Have Declined Considerably** **Federal Government Job Growth Slowed to 0.7% Year-over-year in February** ## Spending **Total Federal Government Operating Cash Withdrawals Are Roughly On-trend…** **But Spending is Undershooting in Several Key Department and Agencies** **Federal Contracts Activity Declined Slightly in February but Still Lies Within Normal Ranges** **Federal Grants Have Largely Stagnated at a Below-trend Level Since Inauguration Day** ## **Government Travel** **Recent Company Anecdotes Highlight Negative Impacts on the Airlines and Hospitality Sectors** **** **No Signs of Decline in DC-Area Flights** **Weekday Metrorail Ridership Reaches a Post-pandemic High as Federal Employees Return to Office** ## **Consumer Sentiment** **Sentiment Among Government Employees Has Declined Sharply, Especially Among Those Residing in the DC Area** **Market Performance of Companies Exposed to Government Spending Cuts Has Declined Since Election Day** **Some IT Software, Defense, and Real Estate Companies Are Cautiously Optimistic About the Efficiency-driven Spending Cuts** Hatzius pointed out, **"Taken together, the data captures a modest real-time impact on employment and discretionary and operational spending but otherwise suggests limited growth implications. We continue to expect these government spending cuts to have a relatively limited macroeconomic impact."** Separate from Goldman, we have commented on everything from MLS housing data to jobs data, which only show that the real pain for the DC Swamp—whether in DC itself, Northern Virginia, or Maryland—has yet to hit. 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