---
title: "巴克莱：2025 年印尼经济增速可能放缓至 4.8%"
description: "巴克莱经济学家预测，2025 年印尼经济增速可能放缓至 4.8%，低于去年的 5.0%。原因包括政府支出冻结、投资疲软及美国关税挑战。若印尼盾稳定，印尼央行可能在 5 月降息 25 个基点，并预计到 2026 年初再降息 4 次。当前基准利率为 5.75%。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/238753137.md"
published_at: "2025-05-05T13:29:12.000Z"
---

# 巴克莱：2025 年印尼经济增速可能放缓至 4.8%

> 巴克莱经济学家预测，2025 年印尼经济增速可能放缓至 4.8%，低于去年的 5.0%。原因包括政府支出冻结、投资疲软及美国关税挑战。若印尼盾稳定，印尼央行可能在 5 月降息 25 个基点，并预计到 2026 年初再降息 4 次。当前基准利率为 5.75%。

巴克莱经济学家 Brian Tan 和 Hongying Liu 在一份报告中说，由于政府支出冻结、投资疲软以及美国的关税挑战，2025 年印尼经济增速可能从去年的 5.0% 放缓至 4.8%。他们指出，财政延误可能会导致政府支出停滞不前。他们认为，如果印尼盾保持稳定，印尼央行有可能在 5 月会议上降息 25 个基点。巴克莱维持其基本预测，即到 2026 年初再降息 4 次，每次 25 个基点。在国内需求走弱和外部贸易风险的背景下，对政策支持的需求日益增加。印尼央行的基准利率目前为 5.75%。

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