<p>沃伦·巴菲特自 1965 年以来一直担任 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.76%）（BRK.B -1.21%）的首席执行官。他将在 2025 年底辞去这一职务，结束他为股东带来持续、超越市场回报的辉煌历程。</p>
<p>巴菲特倾向于投资于那些具有稳定增长、可靠收益和强大管理团队的公司，这些管理团队倾向于采取对股东友好的政策，比如支付股息和回购股票。因此，当伯克希尔在 2020 年首次公开募股（IPO）前购买 <strong>Snowflake</strong>（SNOW -1.07%）的股票时，许多人感到惊讶——这家云数据仓库巨头几乎不符合巴菲特的通常标准。</p>
<p>这意味着他的一个副手可能是此次购买的关键决策者。然而，伯克希尔·哈撒韦在 2024 年第二季度出售了其在 Snowflake 的全部股份，退出价格表明其投资几乎没有获得任何收益。如果你在该集团出售时购买了 Snowflake 的股票，现在的回报率将达到 47%——但我仍然认为巴菲特和他的团队做出了正确的决定。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk1MTgvYS1kaWdpdGFsLXJlbmRlcmluZy1vZi1hLXNub3dmbGFrZS10aGF0LWxvb2tzLWxpa2UtYS1jb21wdXRlci1ib2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk1MTgvYS1kaWdpdGFsLXJlbmRlcmluZy1vZi1hLXNub3dmbGFrZS10aGF0LWxvb2tzLWxpa2UtYS1jb21wdXRlci1ib2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<h2>不断增长的人工智能产品和服务组合</h2>
<p>Snowflake 的旗舰产品是其数据云，帮助企业统一来自多个云平台（如 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 网络服务和 <strong>微软</strong>Azure）的宝贵信息。这使得企业能够对完整的数据集进行详细分析，从而产生比分析存储在不同云平台上的碎片化数据集更有用的洞察。</p>
<p>开发最佳的人工智能（AI）软件需要轻松访问大量数据，因此 Snowflake 完全有能力帮助其客户部署这一颠覆性技术。它在 2023 年底推出了一个名为 Cortex AI 的新平台，为企业提供来自 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 Anthropic 等领先第三方开发者的大型语言模型（LLMs）的访问。</p>
<p>企业可以将其内部数据接入这些 LLMs，以快速创建用于各种目的的 AI 软件。但 Snowflake 继续为 Cortex 赋予新功能。它提供了一种名为 Document AI 的工具，可以从合同和发票等非结构化来源中提取有价值的数据，企业可以将这些数据接入其 AI 模型。还有 Cortex Agents 工具，允许企业创建自定义虚拟助手以完成特定任务。</p>
<p>例如，一家企业可以训练一个代理自动创建销售人员与客户之间对话的记录，然后训练另一个代理分析这些记录，以寻找创造更多收入的机会。在过去，这些任务需要人类员工花费数小时甚至数天来完成，这就是为什么代理 AI 变得如此受欢迎。</p>
<p>截至 2026 财年第一季度末（4 月 30 日），Snowflake 共有 11,578 个客户，其中约 5,200 个每周使用其 AI 产品和服务。这表明考虑到 Cortex AI 平台刚刚成立不到 18 个月，采用速度非常快。</p>
<h2>收入增长放缓，巨额亏损</h2>
<p>Snowflake 在 2026 财年第一季度的产品收入同比增长 26%，达到 9.968 亿美元。这是自公司在 2020 年上市以来该指标的最慢增长速度。实际上，Snowflake 的收入增长在每个季度都持续下降。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/409f490b3e161eee7ecd18e77a7ae6d2.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/409f490b3e161eee7ecd18e77a7ae6d2.png"/></p>
<p>SNOW 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>收入增长放缓并不一定是坏事，如果一家公司在营销等方面的支出减少，从而改善其底线。但 Snowflake 并非如此，因为它继续增加支出。该公司第一季度的运营成本增长了 26%，导致净亏损达到 4.301 亿美元。这比去年同期的净亏损大幅增加了 35%。</p>
<p>如果 Snowflake 的支出增加导致收入增长加速，那么其净亏损本可以保持稳定甚至下降。然而，没有迹象表明这一趋势会逆转，因为该公司预计在 2026 财年第二季度（7 月 31 日结束）收入增长将进一步放缓至 25%。</p>
<p>即使是 Snowflake 的剩余业绩义务（RPO）也显示出疲软的迹象。尽管在第一季度同比增长 34%，达到 66 亿美元，但它们实际上从三个月前的 68 亿美元的峰值下降。RPO 本质上是一个订单积压，预计最终会转化为已确认的收入，因此该数字的任何下降都可能是公司未来收入疲软的信号。</p>
<h2>Snowflake 股票价格昂贵</h2>
<p>Snowflake 以每股 120 美元的价格上市，伯克希尔·哈撒韦在其上市前购买了该股票，因此其入场价格可能在该水平附近。伯克希尔在 2024 年第二季度出售了其持股，当时股票价格约为 135 美元，这意味着在四年内仅获得了 12.5% 的收益。像美国国债这样的无风险资产可能会带来更好的回报。</p>
<p>但自伯克希尔出售以来，Snowflake 的股票价格已飙升 47%，达到约 200 美元。这是否意味着巴菲特和他的团队犯了错误？我认为不是，因为我认为现在的估值过高。该股票的市销率（P/S）为 17.3，显著高于亚马逊、微软和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 等云计算和 AI 领域的领导者：</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b026d7457a7bc1f58158c9278123614.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b026d7457a7bc1f58158c9278123614.png"/></p>
<p>SNOW 市销率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
<p>Snowflake 符合巴菲特的至少两个标准，但两者都有一个警告：该公司的收入增长速度相当快，但如果其当前的减速率持续下去，这种增长不会持续太久。该公司还通过股票回购计划向股东返还资金，但如果持续亏损，这种做法也无法永远维持。</p>
<p>另一方面，Snowflake 的估值和其巨额亏损通常会使其完全排除在伯克希尔的投资选项之外，因此我并不惊讶于这个综合企业最终退出了其持仓。此外，该股份在出售时仅值 8 亿美元，因此在伯克希尔 2760 亿美元的投资组合中只占了微小的一部分。</p>
<p>总之，无论你是巴菲特还是普通散户投资者——一些股票在你卖出后会涨。这是投资旅程的一部分，我们必须接受准确把握市场时机是不可能的。更好的做法是关注相关企业的基本面，基于这一点，我认为伯克希尔做出了正确的决定。</p>

SNOW

<p>沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司出售了其在 Snowflake 的全部股份，此后在出售时购买的投资者获得了 47% 的回报。Snowflake 的数据云平台在人工智能发展方面具有良好的前景，但其收入增长正在放缓，2026 年第一季度报告的增长率为 26%，是自上市以来的最低水平。该公司还因运营成本上升报告了 4.301 亿美元的重大净亏损。尽管客户基础不断扩大，Snowflake 未来的收入增长似乎不确定，这引发了对其股票估值的担忧</p>

<p>Warren Buffett has served as the CEO of <strong>Berkshire Hathaway</strong>(BRK.A -0.76%) (BRK.B -1.21%) since 1965. He'll step down from the role at the end of 2025, capping off an incredible run during which he delivered consistent, market-crushing returns for its shareholders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>沃伦·巴菲特自 1965 年以来一直担任 <strong>伯克希尔·哈撒韦</strong>（BRK.A -0.76%）（BRK.B -1.21%）的首席执行官。他将在 2025 年底辞去这一职务，结束他为股东带来持续、超越市场回报的辉煌历程。</p>
</div><p>Buffett prefers to invest in companies with steady growth, reliable earnings, and strong management teams that favor shareholder-friendly policies like paying dividends and repurchasing their shares. That's why it was surprising to many when Berkshire bought <strong>Snowflake</strong>(SNOW -1.07%) stock in 2020 ahead of its initial public offering (IPO) -- the cloud data warehouse giant hardly ticked any of Buffett's usual boxes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>巴菲特倾向于投资于那些具有稳定增长、可靠收益和强大管理团队的公司，这些管理团队倾向于采取对股东友好的政策，比如支付股息和回购股票。因此，当伯克希尔在 2020 年首次公开募股（IPO）前购买 <strong>Snowflake</strong>（SNOW -1.07%）的股票时，许多人感到惊讶——这家云数据仓库巨头几乎不符合巴菲特的通常标准。</p>
</div><p>That means one of his lieutenants probably was the key decision-maker behind the purchase. However, Berkshire Hathaway sold its entire position in Snowflake in 2024's second quarter, and the exit price suggests it booked hardly any gain on the investment. Had you bought shares of Snowflake at the moment the conglomerate sold, you'd be sitting on a 47% return right now -- but I still think Buffett and his team made the right decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这意味着他的一个副手可能是此次购买的关键决策者。然而，伯克希尔·哈撒韦在 2024 年第二季度出售了其在 Snowflake 的全部股份，退出价格表明其投资几乎没有获得任何收益。如果你在该集团出售时购买了 Snowflake 的股票，现在的回报率将达到 47%——但我仍然认为巴菲特和他的团队做出了正确的决定。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MTk1MTgvYS1kaWdpdGFsLXJlbmRlcmluZy1vZi1hLXNub3dmbGFrZS10aGF0LWxvb2tzLWxpa2UtYS1jb21wdXRlci1ib2FyZC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F819518%2Fa-digital-rendering-of-a-snowflake-that-looks-like-a-computer-board.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><h2>A growing portfolio of AI products and services</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>不断增长的人工智能产品和服务组合</h2>
</div><p>Snowflake's flagship product is its data cloud, which helps businesses unify their valuable information from across multiple cloud platforms such as <strong>Amazon</strong> Web Services and <strong>Microsoft</strong> Azure. This allows them to perform detailed analyses on a complete data set, which produces more useful insights than analyzing fragmented data sets stored on different cloud platforms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Snowflake 的旗舰产品是其数据云，帮助企业统一来自多个云平台（如 <strong>亚马逊</strong> 网络服务和 <strong>微软</strong>Azure）的宝贵信息。这使得企业能够对完整的数据集进行详细分析，从而产生比分析存储在不同云平台上的碎片化数据集更有用的洞察。</p>
</div><p>Developing the best artificial intelligence (AI) software requires easy access to massive volumes of data, so Snowflake is perfectly positioned to help its customers deploy this game-changing technology. It launched a new platform in late 2023 called Cortex AI that provides businesses with access to large language models (LLMs) from leading third-party developers like <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and Anthropic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>开发最佳的人工智能（AI）软件需要轻松访问大量数据，因此 Snowflake 完全有能力帮助其客户部署这一颠覆性技术。它在 2023 年底推出了一个名为 Cortex AI 的新平台，为企业提供来自 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和 Anthropic 等领先第三方开发者的大型语言模型（LLMs）的访问。</p>
</div><p>Businesses can plug their internal data into those LLMs to rapidly create AI software for a range of purposes. But Snowflake continues to empower Cortex with new capabilities. It offers a tool called Document AI which extracts valuable data from unstructured sources like contracts and invoices, which businesses can plug into their AI models. Then there is the Cortex Agents tool, which allows businesses to create custom virtual assistants to complete specific tasks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>企业可以将其内部数据接入这些 LLMs，以快速创建用于各种目的的 AI 软件。但 Snowflake 继续为 Cortex 赋予新功能。它提供了一种名为 Document AI 的工具，可以从合同和发票等非结构化来源中提取有价值的数据，企业可以将这些数据接入其 AI 模型。还有 Cortex Agents 工具，允许企业创建自定义虚拟助手以完成特定任务。</p>
</div><p>For example, a business could train an agent to autonomously create transcripts of conversations between salespeople and customers, and then train another agent to analyze those transcripts for opportunities to generate more revenue. In the past, those tasks would take human workers hours or even days to complete, which is why agentic AI is becoming so popular.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一家企业可以训练一个代理自动创建销售人员与客户之间对话的记录，然后训练另一个代理分析这些记录，以寻找创造更多收入的机会。在过去，这些任务需要人类员工花费数小时甚至数天来完成，这就是为什么代理 AI 变得如此受欢迎。</p>
</div><p>Snowflake had 11,578 total customers at the end of its fiscal 2026 first quarter (which ended April 30), and about 5,200 of them were using its AI products and services on a weekly basis. That suggests rapid uptake considering the Cortex AI platform is barely 18 months old.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2026 财年第一季度末（4 月 30 日），Snowflake 共有 11,578 个客户，其中约 5,200 个每周使用其 AI 产品和服务。这表明考虑到 Cortex AI 平台刚刚成立不到 18 个月，采用速度非常快。</p>
</div><h2>Decelerating revenue growth, and blowout losses</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>收入增长放缓，巨额亏损</h2>
</div><p>Snowflake's product revenue grew 26% year over year in its fiscal 2026 first quarter to $996.8 million. That was its slowest rate of increase on that metric since the company went public in 2020. In fact, Snowflake's revenue growth is consistently trending lower with each passing quarter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Snowflake 在 2026 财年第一季度的产品收入同比增长 26%，达到 9.968 亿美元。这是自公司在 2020 年上市以来该指标的最慢增长速度。实际上，Snowflake 的收入增长在每个季度都持续下降。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/409f490b3e161eee7ecd18e77a7ae6d2.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/409f490b3e161eee7ecd18e77a7ae6d2.png"/></p>
<p>SNOW Operating Revenue (Quarterly YoY Growth) data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SNOW 营业收入（季度同比增长）数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Slowing revenue growth isn't necessarily a bad thing if a company is spending less money on things like marketing to improve its bottom line. But that isn't the case with Snowflake, because it continues to ramp up its spending. The company's operating costs grew by 26% during the first quarter, which resulted in a blowout net loss of $430.1 million. That was a whopping 35% larger than its net loss from the year-ago period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>收入增长放缓并不一定是坏事，如果一家公司在营销等方面的支出减少，从而改善其底线。但 Snowflake 并非如此，因为它继续增加支出。该公司第一季度的运营成本增长了 26%，导致净亏损达到 4.301 亿美元。这比去年同期的净亏损大幅增加了 35%。</p>
</div><p>Snowflake's net loss would have remained stable or even declined if its increased spending resulted in accelerating revenue growth rather than decelerating growth. However, there is no sign of that trend reversing, because the company is forecasting even slower revenue growth of 25% in its fiscal 2026 second quarter (which ends July 31).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 Snowflake 的支出增加导致收入增长加速，那么其净亏损本可以保持稳定甚至下降。然而，没有迹象表明这一趋势会逆转，因为该公司预计在 2026 财年第二季度（7 月 31 日结束）收入增长将进一步放缓至 25%。</p>
</div><p>Even Snowflake's remaining performance obligations (RPOs) are flashing signs of weakness. Despite growing by 34% year over year to $6.6 billion during the first quarter, they actually shrank from their peak of $6.8 billion from the previous quarter three months earlier. RPOs are essentially an order backlog that can be expected to eventually convert into booked revenue, so any dip in that figure could be a signal of future weakness for the company's top line.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是 Snowflake 的剩余业绩义务（RPO）也显示出疲软的迹象。尽管在第一季度同比增长 34%，达到 66 亿美元，但它们实际上从三个月前的 68 亿美元的峰值下降。RPO 本质上是一个订单积压，预计最终会转化为已确认的收入，因此该数字的任何下降都可能是公司未来收入疲软的信号。</p>
</div><h2>Snowflake stock is expensive</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>Snowflake 股票价格昂贵</h2>
</div><p>Snowflake went public at a price of $120 per share, and Berkshire Hathaway bought the stock right before it listed, so its entry price was probably around that level. Berkshire sold its position during the second quarter of 2024, when the stock was hovering at around $135, which translated into a gain of just 12.5% over four years. A risk-free asset like U.S. Treasuries might have yielded a better return.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Snowflake 以每股 120 美元的价格上市，伯克希尔·哈撒韦在其上市前购买了该股票，因此其入场价格可能在该水平附近。伯克希尔在 2024 年第二季度出售了其持股，当时股票价格约为 135 美元，这意味着在四年内仅获得了 12.5% 的收益。像美国国债这样的无风险资产可能会带来更好的回报。</p>
</div><p>But Snowflake stock has soared by 47% to around $200 since Berkshire sold. Does that mean Buffett and his team made a mistake? I don't think so, because I would argue it's now overvalued. The stock is trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 17.3, which is significantly more pricey than cloud and AI leaders like Amazon, Microsoft, and <strong>Alphabet</strong>:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但自伯克希尔出售以来，Snowflake 的股票价格已飙升 47%，达到约 200 美元。这是否意味着巴菲特和他的团队犯了错误？我认为不是，因为我认为现在的估值过高。该股票的市销率（P/S）为 17.3，显著高于亚马逊、微软和 <strong>Alphabet</strong> 等云计算和 AI 领域的领导者：</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b026d7457a7bc1f58158c9278123614.png" alt="" original-src="https://media.ycharts.com/charts/4b026d7457a7bc1f58158c9278123614.png"/></p>
<p>SNOW PS Ratio data by YCharts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SNOW 市销率数据来源于 YCharts。</p>
</div><p>Snowflake ticks at least two of Buffett's boxes, with a caveat on both counts: The company is growing its revenue quite fast, but that won't last long if its current rate of deceleration continues. The company is also returning money to shareholders through a stock buyback program, but that can't last forever if it keeps losing money.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Snowflake 符合巴菲特的至少两个标准，但两者都有一个警告：该公司的收入增长速度相当快，但如果其当前的减速率持续下去，这种增长不会持续太久。该公司还通过股票回购计划向股东返还资金，但如果持续亏损，这种做法也无法永远维持。</p>
</div><p>On the flip side, Snowflake's valuation and its steep losses would normally have excluded it as an investment option for Berkshire entirely, so I'm not surprised the conglomerate eventually exited its position. Besides, that stake was worth just $800 million at the time of sale, so it represented a tiny sliver of Berkshire's $276 billion portfolio.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，Snowflake 的估值和其巨额亏损通常会使其完全排除在伯克希尔的投资选项之外，因此我并不惊讶于这个综合企业最终退出了其持仓。此外，该股份在出售时仅值 8 亿美元，因此在伯克希尔 2760 亿美元的投资组合中只占了微小的一部分。</p>
</div><p>In summary, it doesn't matter if you're Buffett or an average retail investor -- some stocks will rise after you sell them. That's part of the investing journey, and we have to accept that timing the market reliably is impossible. It's better to focus on the fundamentals of the business in question, and on that basis, I think Berkshire made the right call.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总之，无论你是巴菲特还是普通散户投资者——一些股票在你卖出后会涨。这是投资旅程的一部分，我们必须接受准确把握市场时机是不可能的。更好的做法是关注相关企业的基本面，基于这一点，我认为伯克希尔做出了正确的决定。</p>
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Had You Bought This Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock When Warren Buffett Sold It, You'd be Sitting on a 47% Return Now

如果你在沃伦·巴菲特卖出这只人工智能股票时买入，现在你的回报率将达到 47%