<p>凯文·巴克兰对欧洲和全球市场的前瞻</p><p>在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布中东停火约 24 小时后，尽管受到一些伊朗火箭袭击和以色列誓言反击的干扰，投资者似乎仍然相信最糟糕的情况已经过去。</p><p>尽管全球股市反弹似乎暂时停滞，原油价格也似乎找到了底部，但至少到目前为止，这些大幅市场波动并没有出现太多回撤。</p><p>这很大程度上可能是因为即使在敌对行动最激烈的时候，伊朗的石油基础设施和重要的油轮通道霍尔木兹海峡的安全性从未受到严重怀疑。</p><p>特朗普甚至在社交媒体上表示，中国现在可以再次购买伊朗石油，这迫使白宫迅速澄清美国对伊朗制裁的立场没有变化。</p><p>特朗普还发现自己与自己的国防情报局意见相左，该局在一份初步报告中表示，美国对伊朗核设施的轰炸仅使该国的能力倒退了一两个月。特朗普则表示伊朗的核计划已被 “彻底摧毁”。</p><p>这引发了关于美国或以色列在空战中目标是否真正实现，以及接下来会发生什么的问题。</p><p>我们很可能会在特朗普飞往海牙参加北约峰会时听到他更多关于中东的言论，国防开支将是主要焦点。</p><p>中东的事态发展可能在整个欧洲交易日内继续成为市场关注的中心，今天在企业或宏观日历上几乎没有其他重要事项。</p><p>稍后，美国的数据仅限于新房销售。</p><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将再次出现在国会山，向参议院作证，尽管前一天已向众议院作证，因此不太可能有太多新内容。</p><p>在华盛顿特区北部的政治动态中，自称民主社会主义者的 33 岁州立法者佐赫兰·曼达尼在纽约市民主党初选中意外击败前纽约州州长安德鲁·库莫，准备赢得初选。</p><p>可能影响周三市场的关键发展：</p><p>-北约峰会</p><p>-美国新房销售（5 月）</p><p>-美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会作证 想要跟上最新的关税新闻？我们的新每日新闻摘要提供影响全球贸易的市场动态头条。请在此注册关税观察。</p><p>伊朗的石油和天然气基础设施</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/748ba69012bb6f74d666dac5da9c7906?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="1348" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/748ba69012bb6f74d666dac5da9c7906"/></figure><p>在以色列与伊朗冲突后，油价已从高位回落</p><figure class="image"><img src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/3ef0216979a7abf897ef91ccf21cbc46?x-oss-process=style/lg" alt="" width="1420" height="838" original-src="https://pub.pbkrs.com/uploads/2025/3ef0216979a7abf897ef91ccf21cbc46"/></figure><p>（编辑：穆拉利库马·阿南达拉曼）</p>

<p>中东地区由美国总统特朗普宣布的脆弱停火引发了全球市场的谨慎乐观。尽管伊朗发射了一些火箭并且以色列进行了回应，投资者仍然保持希望。油价已经稳定，伊朗的石油基础设施安全完好。特朗普关于伊朗石油采购的评论促使美国对制裁进行了澄清。市场将继续关注中东的发展，今天企业或宏观经济新闻有限。关键事件包括北约峰会和美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院的证词</p>

<p>A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>凯文·巴克兰对欧洲和全球市场的前瞻</p>
</div><p>Some 24 hours on from when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a truce in the Middle East - despite being disturbed by some Iranian rocket fire and an Israeli vow to respond - investors seem to be keeping faith that the worst is over.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普宣布中东停火约 24 小时后，尽管受到一些伊朗火箭袭击和以色列誓言反击的干扰，投资者似乎仍然相信最糟糕的情况已经过去。</p>
</div><p>Although the global stock rally appears to have petered out for now, and crude oil looks to have found a floor, there’s not been much retracement of those sizeable market moves, at least so far.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管全球股市反弹似乎暂时停滞，原油价格也似乎找到了底部，但至少到目前为止，这些大幅市场波动并没有出现太多回撤。</p>
</div><p>A big part of that may be that even at the height of the hostilities, the security of Iran’s oil infrastructure and the vital tanker thoroughfare, the Strait of Hormuz, was never seriously in doubt.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这很大程度上可能是因为即使在敌对行动最激烈的时候，伊朗的石油基础设施和重要的油轮通道霍尔木兹海峡的安全性从未受到严重怀疑。</p>
</div><p>A buoyant Trump even took to social media to say China can now, again, purchase Iranian oil, forcing the White House to swiftly clarify there was no change in stance with regard to U.S. sanctions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普甚至在社交媒体上表示，中国现在可以再次购买伊朗石油，这迫使白宫迅速澄清美国对伊朗制裁的立场没有变化。</p>
</div><p>Trump has also found himself at odds with his own Defense Intelligence Agency, which said in an initial report that U.S. bomber strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities at the weekend had only set the country’s capabilities back by a month or two. Trump said Iran’s nuclear program had been “obliterated”.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普还发现自己与自己的国防情报局意见相左，该局在一份初步报告中表示，美国对伊朗核设施的轰炸仅使该国的能力倒退了一两个月。特朗普则表示伊朗的核计划已被 “彻底摧毁”。</p>
</div><p>That raises questions about whether the U.S.’s or Israel’s goals in the air war were actually realised, and about what comes next.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这引发了关于美国或以色列在空战中目标是否真正实现，以及接下来会发生什么的问题。</p>
</div><p>We’re very likely to hear more from Trump on the Middle East as he flies into The Hague for a NATO summit today, where defence spending will be a primary focus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们很可能会在特朗普飞往海牙参加北约峰会时听到他更多关于中东的言论，国防开支将是主要焦点。</p>
</div><p>Developments in the Middle East are likely to remain the center of market attention throughout the European trading day, with very little on the corporate or macro calendars today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中东的事态发展可能在整个欧洲交易日内继续成为市场关注的中心，今天在企业或宏观日历上几乎没有其他重要事项。</p>
</div><p>Later, U.S. data is limited to new home sales.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>稍后，美国的数据仅限于新房销售。</p>
</div><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be back on Capitol Hill to give testimony before the Senate, although having done the same to the House the previous day, there’s not likely to be much that’s new.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将再次出现在国会山，向参议院作证，尽管前一天已向众议院作证，因此不太可能有太多新内容。</p>
</div><p>In political developments north of DC, Zohran Mamdani, a 33-year-old state lawmaker and self-described democratic socialist, was poised to win New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary in a surprising upset over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在华盛顿特区北部的政治动态中，自称民主社会主义者的 33 岁州立法者佐赫兰·曼达尼在纽约市民主党初选中意外击败前纽约州州长安德鲁·库莫，准备赢得初选。</p>
</div><p>Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可能影响周三市场的关键发展：</p>
</div><p>-NATO summit</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-北约峰会</p>
</div><p>-US new home sales (May)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-美国新房销售（5 月）</p>
</div><p>-Fed Chair Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-美联储主席鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会作证 想要跟上最新的关税新闻？我们的新每日新闻摘要提供影响全球贸易的市场动态头条。请在此注册关税观察。</p>
</div><p>Iranian oil and gas infrastructure</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>伊朗的石油和天然气基础设施</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4kHKYvU" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4kHKYvU"/></p>
<p>Oil prices have fallen back from the highs following the Israel-Iran conflict</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在以色列与伊朗冲突后，油价已从高位回落</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4k1H3cb" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4k1H3cb"/></p>
<p>(Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman)</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（编辑：穆拉利库马·阿南达拉曼）</p>
</div>

A fragile ceasefire is good enough for markets

- 投资者对中东局势的缓和保持信心，市场波动未见明显回撤。  
- 特朗普在社交媒体上提到中国可再次购买伊朗石油，白宫迅速澄清未改变制裁立场。  
- 中东局势将持续影响欧洲交易日，今日美国新房销售数据有限。  

对于市场而言，脆弱的停火已经足够