<p><strong>博通</strong>(AVGO -0.00%) 通过利用其作为定制芯片合作伙伴的优势，已成为人工智能（AI）基础设施硬件竞争中的领先者之一。该公司以向数据中心提供网络设备而建立了声誉，但其真正的增长引擎如今是应用特定集成电路，或称 ASIC。这些是大型超大规模数据中心（拥有庞大数据中心的公司）开始转向的定制 AI 芯片，以帮助降低训练大型语言模型（LLMs）或进行推理时的成本。</p>
<p>与图形处理单元（GPU）不同，这些芯片在制造之前就已针对特定任务进行预编程。这可以为其设计的任务提供更好的性能和效率，但它们缺乏重新编程的能力，因此灵活性较差。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU4MDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU4MDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA"/></p>
<p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
<p>该公司的商业模式简单，但难以复制。博通与少数精选客户并肩合作，创建针对特定用途编程的芯片，利用其在互连和节能电路方面的深厚知识产权（IP）库。然后，它利用与代工领导者 <strong>台积电</strong>(TSM 1.50%) 的紧密关系来帮助生产这些芯片。</p>
<p>博通在这一领域正经历巨大的势头。多年前，它帮助 <strong>字母表</strong>(GOOGL -0.16%)(GOOG -0.04%) 开发了其张量处理单元（TPU），以支持其云计算业务，并在这些芯片演变过程中保持了关键合作伙伴关系。它还与 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和字节跳动达成了设计合作。</p>
<p>综合来看，它认为这三位客户在 2027 财年将带来 600 亿到 900 亿美元的机会，这在预计今年将产生约 630 亿美元的收入的情况下是巨大的。它还最近宣布，第四位客户，广泛认为是 OpenAI，已向其下了 100 亿美元的订单，计划明年交付。</p>
<h2>博通面临的最大风险</h2>
<p>尽管目前博通的一切看起来都在顺利进行，但推动股价上涨的同一模式也是最大风险所在。博通的 ASIC 业务依赖于一小部分非常大的客户。即使失去一个客户，也会在收入和利润上留下明显的缺口。这种集中不仅是财务问题，因为它赋予了这些客户谈判的杠杆作用，并给予他们时间来建立自己的芯片设计能力。</p>
<p>我们已经在科技界的其他领域看到这个故事的上演。<strong>苹果</strong>，博通最大的无线组件买家之一，最近用自己内部开发的 Wi-Fi 芯片替代了该公司的 Wi-Fi 芯片。同时，字母表之前找到了一家更便宜的 Wi-Fi 芯片合作伙伴 <strong>Synaptics</strong>。这显示了大型科技公司在降低组件成本方面的决心。</p>
<p>有迹象表明，AI 芯片也可能出现类似的转变。报告显示，字母表正在与 <strong>联发科技</strong> 在其下一代 TPU 的某些部分上更紧密合作，并承担更多的设计工作。超大规模数据中心拥有巨大的资本预算，但总是希望在计算能力上每花一美元都能得到最大化。如果他们认为可以通过更便宜的合作伙伴或内部完成工作来实现相同的性能，他们就会抛弃博通。</p>
<p>随着这些公司从与博通的合作中学到更多，他们也获得了谈判权。这可能导致长期内毛利率下降，即使关系保持不变。同时，ASIC 的长期设计周期意味着博通在生产前几年就已投入资源，因此客户路线图的任何变化都可能使该投资的价值降低。</p>
<p>目前，博通在技术上具有优势。其在高速 SerDes（串行器/解串器）方面的专有知识产权、低功耗设计的专业知识以及在最新的台积电节点上集成先进封装的能力，使其仍然成为希望获得定制解决方案的超大规模数据中心的首选合作伙伴。这为公司赢得了时间，并暂时将像联发科技这样的竞争对手挡在了门外。</p>
<p>然而，投资者不应假设这种优势是永久的。历史表明，一旦一些大型科技公司能够通过切断或更换新合作伙伴来降低成本，他们往往会这样做。该股最近的上涨几乎完全与其定制 AI 芯片的机会相关，这使得这是一个值得密切关注的风险。</p>
<p>博通目前的定位良好，但其成功使其最大的客户掌握了未来独立或与更便宜的合作伙伴如联发科技或 AIChip Technologies 合作的知识。这种风险不会在下个季度的数字中显现，但如果即使一个主要客户决定不再需要博通的帮助，也可能在几年内重塑故事。</p>

博通

<p>博通已确立其在人工智能基础设施硬件领域的领导地位，特别是在其应用特定集成电路（ASICs）方面。然而，其对少数大型客户的依赖构成了重大风险。失去任何主要客户可能会严重影响收入和利润，这在其他转向内部解决方案或更便宜合作伙伴的科技公司中已有所体现。尽管博通目前在技术上占据优势，但客户开发自身专业知识或寻求替代方案的潜力仍然是投资者关注的问题</p>

<p><strong>Broadcom</strong>(AVGO -0.00%) has become one of the leading players in the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure hardware race by leveraging its strength as a custom chip partner. The company built its reputation supplying networking gear to data centers, but its real growth engine today is with application-specific integrated circuits, or ASICs. These are custom AI chips that large hyperscalers (companies that own massive data centers) are starting to turn to help reduce costs when training large language models (LLMs) or running inference.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>博通</strong>(AVGO -0.00%) 通过利用其作为定制芯片合作伙伴的优势，已成为人工智能（AI）基础设施硬件竞争中的领先者之一。该公司以向数据中心提供网络设备而建立了声誉，但其真正的增长引擎如今是应用特定集成电路，或称 ASIC。这些是大型超大规模数据中心（拥有庞大数据中心的公司）开始转向的定制 AI 芯片，以帮助降低训练大型语言模型（LLMs）或进行推理时的成本。</p>
</div><p>Unlike graphics processing units (GPUs), these chips are preprogrammed for specific tasks before they are built. This can lead to better performance and efficiency for the tasks for which they were designed, but they lack to ability to be reprogrammed, and thus are a lot less flexible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与图形处理单元（GPU）不同，这些芯片在制造之前就已针对特定任务进行预编程。这可以为其设计的任务提供更好的性能和效率，但它们缺乏重新编程的能力，因此灵活性较差。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://g.foolcdn.com/image//query-b3A9cmVzaXplJnVybD1odHRwczovL2cuZm9vbGNkbi5jb20vZWRpdG9yaWFsL2ltYWdlcy84MzU4MDYvZ2V0dHlpbWFnZXMtMTQ5MjMxOTg4NC5qcGcmdz03MDA" alt="" original-src="https://g.foolcdn.com/image/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fg.foolcdn.com%2Feditorial%2Fimages%2F835806%2Fgettyimages-1492319884.jpg&amp;op=resize&amp;w=700"/></p>
<p>Image source: Getty Images.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图片来源：Getty Images。</p>
</div><p>The company's playbook is simple, but it's hard to replicate. Broadcom works side by side with a few select customers to create chips programmed for specific purposes, leveraging its deep library of intellectual property (IP) around interconnects and energy-efficient circuitry. It then uses its close ties with foundry leader <strong>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong>(TSM 1.50%) to help produce the chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该公司的商业模式简单，但难以复制。博通与少数精选客户并肩合作，创建针对特定用途编程的芯片，利用其在互连和节能电路方面的深厚知识产权（IP）库。然后，它利用与代工领导者 <strong>台积电</strong>(TSM 1.50%) 的紧密关系来帮助生产这些芯片。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom has been seeing huge momentum in this area. It helped <strong>Alphabet</strong>(GOOGL -0.16%)(GOOG -0.04%) develop its Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) years ago to help power its cloud computing business and has stayed a key partner as those chips have evolved. It has also scored design wins with <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> and ByteDance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博通在这一领域正经历巨大的势头。多年前，它帮助 <strong>字母表</strong>(GOOGL -0.16%)(GOOG -0.04%) 开发了其张量处理单元（TPU），以支持其云计算业务，并在这些芯片演变过程中保持了关键合作伙伴关系。它还与 <strong>Meta Platforms</strong> 和字节跳动达成了设计合作。</p>
</div><p>Combined, it thinks these three customers are a $60 billion to $90 billion opportunity in fiscal 2027, which is huge considering it's on track to generate around $63 billion in revenue this year. It also recently announced that a fourth customer, widely believed to be OpenAI, has placed a $10 billion order with it for next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>综合来看，它认为这三位客户在 2027 财年将带来 600 亿到 900 亿美元的机会，这在预计今年将产生约 630 亿美元的收入的情况下是巨大的。它还最近宣布，第四位客户，广泛认为是 OpenAI，已向其下了 100 亿美元的订单，计划明年交付。</p>
</div><h2>Broadcom's biggest risk</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>博通面临的最大风险</h2>
</div><p>While everything appears to be clicking now for Broadcom, the same model that has propelled the stock higher is also where the biggest risk lies. Broadcom's ASIC business depends on a small set of very large customers. Losing even one would leave a noticeable hole in both revenue and profits. That concentration is not just a financial issue, as it gives those customers leverage and time to build their own chip design expertise.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管目前博通的一切看起来都在顺利进行，但推动股价上涨的同一模式也是最大风险所在。博通的 ASIC 业务依赖于一小部分非常大的客户。即使失去一个客户，也会在收入和利润上留下明显的缺口。这种集中不仅是财务问题，因为它赋予了这些客户谈判的杠杆作用，并给予他们时间来建立自己的芯片设计能力。</p>
</div><p>We have already seen this story playing out in other corners of the tech world. <strong>Apple</strong>, one of Broadcom's biggest wireless component buyers, recently replaced one of the company's Wi-Fi chips with its own in-house developed Wi-Fi chip. Meanwhile, Alphabet previously found a cheaper Wi-Fi chip partner in <strong>Synaptics</strong>. This shows how determined big tech companies can be to lower component costs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们已经在科技界的其他领域看到这个故事的上演。<strong>苹果</strong>，博通最大的无线组件买家之一，最近用自己内部开发的 Wi-Fi 芯片替代了该公司的 Wi-Fi 芯片。同时，字母表之前找到了一家更便宜的 Wi-Fi 芯片合作伙伴 <strong>Synaptics</strong>。这显示了大型科技公司在降低组件成本方面的决心。</p>
</div><p>There are signs a similar shift could be coming in AI chips. Reports suggest Alphabet is working more closely with <strong>MediaTek</strong> on parts of its next TPU generation and taking on more of the design work itself. Hyperscalers have enormous capital budgets but are always looking to stretch every dollar spent on computing power. If they believe they can achieve the same performance with a cheaper partner or by doing the work in-house, they will ditch Broadcom.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>有迹象表明，AI 芯片也可能出现类似的转变。报告显示，字母表正在与 <strong>联发科技</strong> 在其下一代 TPU 的某些部分上更紧密合作，并承担更多的设计工作。超大规模数据中心拥有巨大的资本预算，但总是希望在计算能力上每花一美元都能得到最大化。如果他们认为可以通过更便宜的合作伙伴或内部完成工作来实现相同的性能，他们就会抛弃博通。</p>
</div><p>As these companies learn more from working with Broadcom, they also gain negotiating power. This can lead to lower gross margins over time, even if the relationships remain intact. Meanwhile, the long design cycles in ASICs mean Broadcom commits resources years ahead of production, so any change in a customer's roadmap can make that investment less valuable.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着这些公司从与博通的合作中学到更多，他们也获得了谈判权。这可能导致长期内毛利率下降，即使关系保持不变。同时，ASIC 的长期设计周期意味着博通在生产前几年就已投入资源，因此客户路线图的任何变化都可能使该投资的价值降低。</p>
</div><p>For now, Broadcom has a technical edge. Its proprietary IP around high-speed SerDes (Serializer/Deserializer), its expertise in low-power design, and its ability to integrate advanced packaging at the latest TSMC nodes still make it the go-to partner for hyperscalers that want a custom solution. That has bought the company time and kept competitors like MediaTek at bay for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目前，博通在技术上具有优势。其在高速 SerDes（串行器/解串器）方面的专有知识产权、低功耗设计的专业知识以及在最新的台积电节点上集成先进封装的能力，使其仍然成为希望获得定制解决方案的超大规模数据中心的首选合作伙伴。这为公司赢得了时间，并暂时将像联发科技这样的竞争对手挡在了门外。</p>
</div><p>Investors, though, should not assume that the edge is permanent. History shows that once a few large tech companies can figure out how to lower costs by cutting out or switching to a new partner, they tend to do so. The stock's recent run-up is tied almost entirely to its custom AI-chip opportunity, which makes this a risk worth watching closely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，投资者不应假设这种优势是永久的。历史表明，一旦一些大型科技公司能够通过切断或更换新合作伙伴来降低成本，他们往往会这样做。该股最近的上涨几乎完全与其定制 AI 芯片的机会相关，这使得这是一个值得密切关注的风险。</p>
</div><p>Broadcom is positioned well for now, but its success has armed its biggest customers with the know-how to one day go it alone or with a cheaper partner like MediaTek or AIChip Technologies. That is the kind of risk that does not show up in next quarter's numbers but can reshape the story over a few years if even one major customer decides it no longer needs Broadcom's help.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>博通目前的定位良好，但其成功使其最大的客户掌握了未来独立或与更便宜的合作伙伴如联发科技或 AIChip Technologies 合作的知识。这种风险不会在下个季度的数字中显现，但如果即使一个主要客户决定不再需要博通的帮助，也可能在几年内重塑故事。</p>
</div>

博通：这是该股票所面临的最大风险