--- title: "\"Forecast\" Brokers expect HSBC's pre-tax profit to drop 5% in the third quarter, focusing on operational strategy and shareholder return guidance" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/261543303.md" description: "HSBC HOLDINGS will announce its third-quarter results on the 28th of this month, with expected pre-tax profit declining by approximately 5% year-on-year, ranging between USD 6.264 billion and USD 8.1 billion. Despite the rebound in Hong Kong interbank offered rates, the market is concerned about its future dividend and capital ratio guidance due to the impact of non-recurring items. Morgan Stanley predicts a slight increase in net interest income for the third quarter, while expenses and other income may decline" datetime: "2025-10-17T03:15:55.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/261543303.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/261543303.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/261543303.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/261543303.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/261543303.md) # "Forecast" Brokers expect HSBC's pre-tax profit to drop 5% in the third quarter, focusing on operational strategy and shareholder return guidance HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK) will announce its third-quarter results for this year on the 28th of this month (Tuesday). Although benefiting from the rise in Hong Kong interbank offered rates since August this year, which helps alleviate some net interest margin pressure, the market expects impacts from "items to be noted" (non-recurring items, with market estimates related to the dilution and impairment losses of its associate company Bank of Communications (03328.HK), as Bank of Communications completed the issuance of A-shares in June, reducing HSBC's stake from 19.03% to 16%). According to a comprehensive analysis of four brokerages, HSBC's reported benchmark pre-tax profit for the third quarter of 2025 is estimated to be between USD 6.264 billion and USD 8.1 billion, down 4.4% to 26.1% from USD 8.476 billion in the same period last year, with a median of USD 8.0535 billion, a nearly 5% year-on-year decline. According to the comprehensive analysis of four brokerages, HSBC's alternative performance measures for the third quarter of 2025, excluding items to be noted, are expected to have fixed exchange rate income between USD 16.716 billion and USD 17.4 billion, down 2.9% to an increase of 1.1% from USD 17.209 billion in the same period last year, with a median of USD 17.272 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. The forecasts from the four brokerages for HSBC's third-quarter dividend per share are all set at USD 0.10, unchanged year-on-year. Investors will focus on HSBC's net interest income and non-interest income growth performance, future dividends, Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio guidance, and pay attention to the expected credit loss situation related to the group's involvement in Hong Kong corporate real estate, as well as the latest operational guidance regarding the synergy effects brought by HSBC's plan to privatize Hang Seng Bank (00011.HK). 【Focus on Capital Return Guidance and New Operational Strategy】 Morgan Stanley predicts that HSBC's reported benchmark pre-tax profit will decline by 26.1% year-on-year to USD 6.264 billion, while the alternative measure excluding items to be noted will see fixed exchange rate income decrease by 2.9% year-on-year to USD 16.716 billion. The bank's net interest income is expected to be USD 10.476 billion, up 2% year-on-year (down 2% quarter-on-quarter), with expenses and other income at USD 6.24 billion, down 10% year-on-year (down 10% quarter-on-quarter). It is expected that the pre-tax loss from "items to be noted" will expand to USD 1.844 billion in the third quarter (compared to only USD 256 million in the third quarter of 2024), with an expected dividend of USD 0.10 per share. The bank indicated that the outlook for Hong Kong interbank offered rates is expected to lead to greater confidence in this year's bank net interest income outlook, and the market will focus on management's comments regarding next year's net interest income. The market will also pay attention to the net new cash and bank customers in the Hong Kong business. The bank also expects that the expected credit impairment in Hong Kong commercial real estate will remain high, with related losses for the year expected to be 41 basis points. Citi predicts that HSBC's reported benchmark pre-tax profit will decline by 5.4% year-on-year to USD 8.016 billion, while the alternative measure excluding items to be noted will see fixed exchange rate income remain nearly flat year-on-year at USD 17.206 billion. Citi noted that the average Hong Kong interbank offered rate for one month in the third quarter of this year fell by 14 basis points quarter-on-quarter, which is expected to put pressure on net interest income, but the overall net interest margin for the quarter is expected to maintain at 1.95% Quarterly flat, supported by structural hedging. Non-net interest income is expected to benefit from a strong market, with wealth management business likely to record double-digit growth in the third quarter and beyond, supported by Hong Kong stock trading, fund sales, and insurance business. The bank expects HSBC's sale of the French residential mortgage portfolio losses to be accounted for in the fourth quarter. The bank also predicts HSBC's quarterly provision expense to be USD 1 billion, reflecting further confirmation of non-performing loans in Hong Kong's commercial real estate, and HSBC has raised its credit cost guidance to about 40 basis points. The bank indicated that commercial real estate loans in Hong Kong account for about 15% of local bank loans, but HSBC only accounts for 4% of total loans, with secured loans making up more than half of the relevant exposure. 【Expected privatization of Hang Seng will lower HSBC's CET1 target】 HSBC previously announced plans to privatize Hang Seng (00011.HK) and expects to stop buybacks for the next three quarters. Barclays believes HSBC should use excess capital for more productive purposes than buybacks, such as cost reduction or driving growth. According to HSBC's capital allocation assessment, the tangible equity return on Hong Kong operations is 40%, suggesting that more group resources should be allocated to more effective projects in Hong Kong. The bank also believes that Hang Seng's common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio reached 21.3% as of the first half of the year, which it believes partly reflects relatively high asset quality concerns and relatively low profitability. Privatization could release capital to clean up the balance sheet, and it does not rule out the possibility of HSBC subsequently lowering its CET1 ratio target. Jefferies pointed out that including the originally estimated USD 8.5 billion intended for buybacks, in the worst-case scenario, HSBC's CET1 ratio could drop to 13.4% in the second quarter of next year. Investors will ultimately question why HSBC set its CET1 ratio at 14% to 14.5%, which is more than 300 basis points above the maximum distribution amount stipulated by regulators, suggesting that investors should question whether HSBC should lower its target by 50 basis points in response to Basel regulation modifications and clean up minority interests like Hang Seng. The bank also noted that the privatization of Hang Seng would eliminate the USD 900 million minority interest, resulting in a 4% increase in earnings per share, which would be offset by the cessation of buybacks for three quarters. After privatization, it will rely on synergies to generate earnings per share growth, and HSBC can streamline its Hong Kong operations to achieve cost and revenue synergies. However, Hang Seng's annualized profit for the first half of the year was USD 3.4 billion, meaning that privatization would generate only low single-digit synergies, and boosting synergies is expected to be difficult, given Hang Seng's good operations, with a cost-to-income ratio of 36% in the first half of the year. \---------------------------------------------------------- According to a comprehensive forecast from four brokerages, HSBC's reported benchmark pre-tax profit for the third quarter of 2025 is expected to be between USD 6.264 billion and USD 8.1 billion, down 4.4% to 26.1% year-on-year from USD 8.476 billion in the same period last year, with a median of USD 8.0535 billion, a nearly 5% year-on-year decline Brokerage│2025 Q3 Reported Pre-Tax Profit Forecast│Year-on-Year Change Friedman│$8.1 billion│-4.4% Goldman Sachs│$8.091 billion│-4.5% Citigroup│$8.016 billion│-5.4% Morgan Stanley│$6.264 billion│-26.1% Based on the company's reported pre-tax profit of $8.476 billion for the same period last year. \---------------------------------------------------------- According to the forecasts from the 4 brokerages, HSBC's alternative performance measures for Q3 2025, excluding items to note, are expected to have fixed exchange rate revenue ranging from $16.716 billion to $17.4 billion, compared to $17.209 billion in the same period last year, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.9% to an increase of 1.1%, with a median of $17.272 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Brokerage│2025 Q3 Alternative Indicator Fixed Exchange Rate Revenue Forecast Excluding Items to Note│Year-on-Year Change Friedman│$17.4 billion│+1.1% Goldman Sachs│$17.338 billion│+0.7% Citigroup│$17.206 billion│-0.02% Morgan Stanley│$16.716 billion│-2.9% Based on the company's alternative indicator fixed exchange rate revenue of $17.209 billion for the same period last year. \---------------------------------------------------------- According to the forecasts from the 4 brokerages, HSBC's expected dividend per share for Q3 2025 is $0.10, unchanged year-on-year. Brokerage│2025 Q3 Dividend Per Share Forecast│Year-on-Year Change Morgan Stanley│$0.10│Unchanged Friedman│$0.10│Unchanged Goldman Sachs│$0.10│Unchanged Citigroup│$0.10│Unchanged Based on the company's common stock dividend of $0.10 for the same period last year ### 相关股票 - [HSBC (HSBC.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/HSBC.US.md) - [HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/00005.HK.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Easter candy prices surge again, leaving buyers with less](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281664015.md) - [How to interpret the wild swings in the jobs numbers](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281681321.md) - [Orient Securities Keeps Their Buy Rating on Geely Automobile Holdings (GELYF)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281674321.md) - [Is Deere’s Tarter Partnership Reframing the Automation and Precision Ag Narrative for DE?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281663746.md) - [Brookfield Corporation Has Become the Next Berkshire Hathaway](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281693387.md)