---
title: "法兴银行：美国若陷轻度衰退或致美元走弱"
description: "法兴银行策略师 Kit Juckes 警告，美国经济面临轻度衰退风险，可能导致降息和美元走弱。他指出，增长放缓和美股高估值可能重演 2001 年衰退，历史上美联储曾将利率从 6.5% 降至 1.0%，美元指数随之暴跌 40%。Juckes 强调，若通胀、经济增长和市场泡沫的担忧加剧，经济可能滑向衰退，届时利率和美元的跌幅可能超出预期。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/261864660.md"
published_at: "2025-10-20T11:06:15.000Z"
---

# 法兴银行：美国若陷轻度衰退或致美元走弱

> 法兴银行策略师 Kit Juckes 警告，美国经济面临轻度衰退风险，可能导致降息和美元走弱。他指出，增长放缓和美股高估值可能重演 2001 年衰退，历史上美联储曾将利率从 6.5% 降至 1.0%，美元指数随之暴跌 40%。Juckes 强调，若通胀、经济增长和市场泡沫的担忧加剧，经济可能滑向衰退，届时利率和美元的跌幅可能超出预期。

法兴银行策略师 Kit Juckes 指出，美国经济面临陷入轻度衰退的风险，这可能引发更大幅度的降息并导致美元走弱。他表示，增长放缓与美股估值高企恐将重演 2001 年的轻度衰退场景。回顾历史，美联储在 2001-2003 年间将利率从 6.5% 骤降至 1.0%，而美元指数在随后七年内暴跌 40%。Juckes 警告称：“若对通胀、经济增长、资产估值及市场泡沫的担忧最终压垮天平，导致经济滑向衰退，届时利率与美元的跌幅恐将双双超出我们预期。”

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