---
title: "Reuters survey: U.S. tariffs may cause Japan's economy to shrink for the first time in six quarters"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/264788620.md"
description: "A Reuters survey shows that due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, the Japanese economy may experience its first contraction in six quarters in the third quarter of 2019, with an expected quarter-on-quarter annualized GDP contraction of 2.5%. The GDP growth in the second quarter was 2.2%. Analysts point out that the decline in exports is the main reason, with external demand and net exports contributing 0.3 percentage points less to GDP growth, respectively. Other factors include a decline in housing and inventory investment"
datetime: "2025-11-07T05:42:53.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/264788620.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/264788620.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/264788620.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/264788620.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/264788620.md)


# Reuters survey: U.S. tariffs may cause Japan's economy to shrink for the first time in six quarters

A Reuters survey released on Friday showed that Japan's economy may experience its first contraction in six quarters from July to September due to the impact of U.S. President Trump's tariff policies. According to the median forecast of 18 economists, Japan's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter is expected to shrink at an annualized rate of 2.5%, compared to a growth of 2.2% in the second quarter. On a non-annualized basis, the third quarter is estimated to contract by 0.6%. Analysts attribute the economic slowdown to a decline in exports caused by U.S. tariffs. External demand or net exports (i.e., exports minus imports) may have reduced third quarter GDP growth by 0.3 percentage points, while in the second quarter it contributed an increase of 0.3 percentage points. Other negative factors include housing and inventory investment being pulled forward in the previous quarter, followed by a decline

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