--- title: "Forex traders face the worst year since 2005 as the U.S. government shutdown adds insult to injury" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/264910874.md" description: "The U.S. government shutdown has reached a record level, leading foreign exchange traders to face their worst year since 2005. The lack of economic data has created uncertainty around the dollar's outlook, and forex investors are expected to perform poorly. Companies like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have seen declines in foreign exchange trading revenue, with market volatility below long-term averages. The chief foreign exchange strategist at Scotiabank pointed out that low returns may make traders less willing to increase risk exposure, with many investors adopting a more cautious approach" datetime: "2025-11-07T17:10:54.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/264910874.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/264910874.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/264910874.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/264910874.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/264910874.md) # Forex traders face the worst year since 2005 as the U.S. government shutdown adds insult to injury The duration of the U.S. government shutdown has reached a record high, causing foreign exchange traders to face their worst year in decades, as the lack of economic data has shrouded the outlook for the dollar in uncertainty. According to the BarclayHedge index, forex investors are expected to perform the worst since 2005 this year. Even before the data vacuum, Wall Street was already feeling the pressure — companies such as Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and BNY Mellon reported declines in foreign exchange trading revenue last quarter. Due to the federal government shutdown, key economic and market position statistics have not been published for weeks. This has made traders reluctant to make large bets on the dollar's direction, and quantitative funds that rely on program models lack high-quality data to work with, leading strategists to delay updates to their forecasts. As a result, volatility in the currency market is far below long-term averages — a stark contrast to the extreme fluctuations triggered by President Donald Trump's announcement of global tariffs in April. "Overall, this year will be a bad year for forex investors," Shaun Osborne, chief forex strategist at Scotiabank, wrote this week, citing the BarclayHedge index. This index tracks forex strategies trading 25 currency pairs and cash-settled forwards. "Weak overall returns this year may impact the market in the coming months," he added, stating that if low returns persist, traders may be "even less willing to increase risk exposure." Before the absence of key economic data, forex traders were already experiencing tough times. Amid the chaos caused by tariffs, several long-standing correlations have been broken, with the market increasingly driven by difficult-to-track capital flows and adjustments to hedging strategies. In this context, many investors have reduced their positions and adopted a more cautious approach. An indicator measuring confidence in the future trend of the most actively traded currency pair globally — the euro against the dollar — is expected to hit a record low this year. The importance of alternative data sources has become significantly greater than before, including proprietary capital flow indicators from institutions and metrics from sources such as ADP Research and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). "We now have to rely more on alternative data sources," said Lauren van Biljon, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments. "This year, the market has been overall volatile and reactive, so holding more but smaller active risk positions is more effective than making large bets." ### 相关股票 - [Goldman Sachs (GS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/GS.US.md) - [Morgan Stanley (MS.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/MS.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [08:03 ETCensys Raises $70 Million in Strategic Funding to Expand Its Internet Intelligence Platform](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281182734.md) - [E*TRADE Is in Talks With SpaceX to Take the Lead in Its Upcoming IPO](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281710037.md) - ["Asia Is Most Exposed To Higher Energy Prices": Morgan Stanley Explores Asia's Biggest Challenges](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281719498.md) - [S.Korea presidential policy adviser: expects FX rates to gradually stabilise](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281436965.md) - [Exclusive-E*Trade in talks to lead SpaceX IPO share sale to small investors in US, sources say](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281057646.md)