---
title: "Morgan Stanley maintains KE rating at \"Overweight,\" demonstrating sustained excess returns in adversity"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/265461032.md"
description: "JP Morgan maintains the rating of KE as \"Overweight,\" despite short-term revenue challenges, expecting revenues to decline by 30% and 4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively. JP Morgan believes that the downside potential for KE's stock price is limited, forecasting a 19% growth in net profit by 2026. KE has repurchased 3% of its shares, with an expected shareholder return rate of 7%. JP Morgan is optimistic about KE's excess advantages in the real estate market, projecting a long-term market share growth of 3% to 4%. The target price is HKD 47 for Hong Kong stocks and USD 18 for U.S. stocks"
datetime: "2025-11-12T07:08:52.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/265461032.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/265461032.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/265461032.md)
---

> 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/265461032.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/265461032.md)


# Morgan Stanley maintains KE rating at "Overweight," demonstrating sustained excess returns in adversity

JP Morgan's research report points out that it believes KE-W (02423.HK) faces challenges in short-term revenue momentum. The bank predicts that KE's revenue will decline by 30% year-on-year in Q4 2025 and by 4% in 2026, mainly due to weak short-term property sales. KE is shifting the focus of its home renovation business from quantity to profitability, and the revenue recognition method for its home rental business has changed from gross income to net income.

However, JP Morgan believes that the downside potential for KE's stock price is limited, as KE continues to optimize the costs of its existing and new property transaction business and home renovation rental business, which should drive a 19% growth in its net profit in 2026. KE is committed to shareholder returns, having repurchased 3% of its shares so far this year. JP Morgan expects that if KE maintains its current share repurchase pace in Q4 2025 and distributes the same dividend as in 2024, the shareholder return rate will reach 7% of the current market value.

JP Morgan believes that KE's "company excess advantage" relative to the real estate market remains solid, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12% in the total transaction volume of existing homes in Q3 this year, higher than the market. JP Morgan also believes that the growth potential of non-transaction businesses has not yet been reflected in the current financial statements, including a 75% increase in the number of homes using the "convenient rental" model in Q3 this year. Currently, only 5% of KE's transaction orders in cities like Beijing and Shanghai are converted into home renovation orders, indicating significant upside potential. The bank believes that KE's strong traffic and scale advantages can raise the operating profit margin of non-transaction businesses to about 10% within a few years, contributing over 4 billion RMB in profits.

JP Morgan maintains its "Overweight" rating on KE. In the long term, JP Morgan believes that KE's "company excess return" remains solid, expecting the company to maintain a year-on-year market share growth of 3% to 4% in China's existing and new property transaction markets.

JP Morgan has lowered its net profit forecasts for KE for the next two years by 5% and 9%, respectively, to reflect the deleveraging effect in the existing and new property transaction businesses; it maintains a target price of $18 for KE (BEKE.US) in the US stock market and HKD 47 in the Hong Kong stock market. JP Morgan's target price is currently based on a forecast price-to-earnings ratio of 17 times for 2027, as the bank expects KE to resume growth in 2027 as the real estate market stabilizes

### 相关股票

- [KE (BEKE.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/BEKE.US.md)
- [BEKE-W (02423.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/02423.HK.md)

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