---
title: "Will the US stock market enter an \"moderate return\" era? Goldman Sachs: The annualized return of the S&P 500 index is expected to be 6.5% over the next decade"
type: "News"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/265624741.md"
description: "Goldman Sachs expects that the return rate of the S&P 500 index over the next decade will be relatively moderate, indicating a shift compared to the strong performance investors have experienced in recent years. According to a recent investor report, the firm forecasts an average annual total return rate of 6.5% for the S&P 500 index over the next ten years. The analysis also outlines various possible outcomes, with a minimum of 3% and a more optimistic scenario reaching up to 10%. The investment bank's forecast is based on three main factors: an average annual earnings growth of 6%, an average annual decline in valuation of 1%, and an average dividend yield of 1.4%. Together, these factors form the basis of Goldman Sachs' core forecast. When considered in historical context, a 6.5% benchmark return rate would place it at the 27th percentile of the ten-year return rates of the S&P 500 index since 1900. Given that Goldman Sachs analysts expect an average inflation rate of 2.2%, the expected real return rate drops to about 4%, which is at the 33rd percentile in historical data. This outlook suggests that while the market is still expected to deliver substantial returns, investors should be prepared for a period of more stable returns compared to the remarkable growth of the past decade"
datetime: "2025-11-13T01:56:03.000Z"
locales:
  - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/265624741.md)
  - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/265624741.md)
  - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/265624741.md)
---

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# Will the US stock market enter an "moderate return" era? Goldman Sachs: The annualized return of the S&P 500 index is expected to be 6.5% over the next decade

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs expects that the return rate of the S&P 500 index over the next decade will be relatively moderate, indicating a shift compared to the strong performance investors have experienced in recent years. According to a recent investor report, the firm predicts an average annual total return rate of 6.5% for the S&P 500 index over the next decade. The analysis also lists various possible outcomes, with a minimum of 3% and a more optimistic scenario reaching up to 10%.

The investment bank's forecast is based on three main factors: an average annual growth of 6% in earnings per share, an average annual decline of 1% in valuations, and an average dividend yield of 1.4%. Together, these factors form the basis of Goldman Sachs' core predictions.

When considered in historical context, a benchmark return rate of 6.5% would place it at the 27th percentile of the ten-year return rates of the S&P 500 index since 1900. Given that Goldman Sachs analysts expect an average inflation rate of 2.2%, the expected real return rate drops to about 4%, which is at the 33rd percentile in historical data.

This outlook suggests that while the market is still expected to deliver substantial returns, investors should prepare for a period of returns that is more stable compared to the remarkable growth of the past decade

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- [SPDR S&P 500 (SPY.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SPY.US.md)
- [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md)

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