--- title: "The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has been shattered, and bond traders are on high alert for the non-farm payroll report" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/266702206.md" description: "Bond investors are closely monitoring the U.S. labor market report to be released on Thursday — this report could completely end the faint expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, or it may reignite those expectations" datetime: "2025-11-20T09:35:55.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/266702206.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/266702206.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/266702206.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/266702206.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/266702206.md) # The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has been shattered, and bond traders are on high alert for the non-farm payroll report Bond investors are closely focusing on the U.S. labor market report to be released on Thursday — this report could completely end the faint expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, or it may reignite those expectations. Due to the U.S. government shutdown, the originally scheduled release of the September non-farm payroll report has been delayed to 8:30 AM New York time. This report will be the only officially released core employment data before the Federal Reserve policymakers hold their last meeting of the year. If the report shows that the U.S. labor market remains resilient, it may weaken the necessity for further rate cuts and crush hopes for the continuation of the rally in the $30 trillion U.S. Treasury market; conversely, if the report is weak, it may reignite market bets on the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points for the third consecutive time at the December 10 meeting, thereby boosting the Treasury market, which is already expected to achieve its best annual performance since 2020. "Given the current market pricing for the December meeting, if the data is weak, the market reaction will be much larger than if the data meets expectations or is slightly above expectations," said Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Ford Washington Investment Advisors. "Before the meeting, the Federal Reserve will not receive any more Tier 1 economic data." In recent weeks, as some Federal Reserve officials have opposed further easing policies and inflation rates have remained above the Fed's 2% target, market expectations for a rate cut in December have steadily declined. As of Wednesday, the market estimated the probability of a rate cut in December at about 35%; just a month ago, investors had almost fully priced in a rate cut, betting that the impact of a weak labor market would outweigh price pressures. This month, U.S. Treasury yields have narrowed their fluctuation range, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) hovering above 4%. On Wednesday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the October employment report would not be released due to the government shutdown, after which the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 2 basis points; on Thursday, the yield remained roughly flat at around 4.14%. The October employment data will be combined with the November data, and the merged report will not be released until after the Federal Reserve's December meeting, meaning that policymakers and investors will not have access to this key economic data before the meeting. On Wednesday afternoon, the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on October 28-29 indicated that "several" Federal Reserve officials suggested that maintaining stable interest rates for the remainder of 2025 may be appropriate, further weakening market optimism about rate cuts. **"Strong Signal"** Ahead of the employment report release, traders expect increased volatility in the bond market. The Intercontinental Exchange Bank of America MOVE Index (a measure of expected bond market volatility) has recently rebounded to a two-month high after falling to a four-year low during the government shutdown. A Bloomberg survey shows that economists expect the U.S. economy to add 51,000 non-farm jobs in September, a rebound from 22,000 in August; the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3% — having slightly risen in the previous two months Ed Al-Husseini, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, stated that given the reduction in labor supply due to the tightening of immigration policies by the U.S. government, the unemployment rate will become a more important indicator of labor market health. "If the unemployment rate remains stable, it will further prove that the Federal Reserve does not need to provide more stimulus to the economy," Al-Husseini said. "If the unemployment rate rises, even by just 0.1 percentage points, it will be a strong signal that the economy needs more support." ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Jobs report shows strong hiring in March, despite oil shock](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281643926.md) - [Ukrainian drone attack shuts crucial unit at Russia's Novo-Ufimsk oil refinery, sources say](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281633542.md) - [09:08 ETExpress Wash Concepts Ranked #88; Celebrates Sixth Consecutive Year on Inc. Magazine's List of the Midwest's Fastest-Growing Companies](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281193963.md) - [Everus Acquires SE&M, Leading Contractor in Southeast Region | ECG Stock News](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281521912.md) - [Flipboard just launched Surf, its new social app and feed reader](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281553046.md)