--- title: "CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.: After the December Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, U.S. stocks are expected to regain an upward trend" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/267063069.md" description: "CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. expects that U.S. stocks are likely to rebound after the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December, supported by residents' tax cuts and the fundamentals of employment and consumption. It is recommended to focus on the technology sector with matching valuations and performance, the manufacturing industry benefiting from re-industrialization, the military industry boosted by fiscal measures, internet diagnostics, and the financial sector during the interest rate cut cycle" datetime: "2025-11-23T09:36:02.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/267063069.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/267063069.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/267063069.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/267063069.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/267063069.md) # CITIC Securities Co., Ltd.: After the December Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, U.S. stocks are expected to regain an upward trend According to the Zhitong Finance APP, CITIC Securities released a research report stating that the overall U.S. stock market is expected to experience slight fluctuations downward until the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 10-11, with funds shifting from technology to defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities. After that, Trump is expected to nominate a new candidate for the Federal Reserve chairman, which may lead to a more accommodative expectation for monetary policy. Therefore, the U.S. stock market may start to rebound in the second half of December, and the tax cuts for residents starting January 1 next year will also provide some support for employment and consumption from a fundamental perspective. From an industry perspective, it is recommended to focus on: 1) the technology sector in the U.S. stock market where valuations are more aligned with performance; 2) manufacturing, midstream and upstream resource products, and energy infrastructure (especially nuclear power) that benefit from the re-industrialization process and favorable policies; 3) military industry benefiting from increased fiscal spending; 4) internet diagnostics that may benefit from reduced medical spending; 5) the financial sector (especially banks) during the interest rate cut cycle. **Event:** On November 20, the U.S. stock market opened high but closed low, particularly with significant declines in technology stocks, with the Nasdaq 100 and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling by 2.4% and 4.8%, respectively. Notably, some technology stocks that have seen significant gains since the beginning of the year (over 50%), including Micron, AMD, Lam Research, and Palantir, all fell by more than 5%. However, after NVIDIA disclosed better-than-expected third-quarter results and future guidance, CITIC Securities judged that the overnight decline was more driven by macro factors and profit-taking rather than panic selling by investors over the potential bursting of the AI bubble. **After the release of the U.S. September non-farm payroll data, hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials have heightened expectations for monetary tightening.** The U.S. September non-farm payroll data released on November 20 showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, exceeding the market expectation of 51,000. The better-than-expected non-farm data, combined with recent hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve officials, further raised market expectations for monetary policy tightening. According to reports from Bloomberg and Reuters, Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated that given the current inflation level still hovering around 3%, which is far from the 2% target, interest rate decisions need to be more cautious; Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reiterated her opposition to further rate cuts; even Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, who previously held a relatively neutral stance, expressed unease about further rate cuts in December. The hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials collectively pushed the market to reprice expectations for the monetary policy path, indicating that the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to maintain the current interest rate level rather than cut rates at the December meeting, and may even maintain the current rate level for a long time until there is a clear downward trend in inflation. **However, the marginal weakening trend in the U.S. labor market remains unchanged, and the market's "hawkish panic" trading may be nearing its peak.** From the labor market data, the U3 unemployment rate rose from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September, while the U6 unemployment rate, which reflects broader unemployment and marginal labor conditions, fell from 8.1% to 8.0%, and the labor force participation rate rebounded to 62.4%. The coexistence of new jobs, rising participation rates, and increasing unemployment rates indicates that improvements in labor supply and job replacement may occur simultaneously. However, the better-than-expected non-farm payroll data does not equate to a full resurgence of the U.S. labor market, considering that the non-farm payroll numbers for July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000 Continuing the downward revision trend since the beginning of this year, the possibility of further downward revisions to the non-farm employment data for August and September cannot be ruled out. Therefore, the substantial weakening of the U.S. labor market may have been masked by the hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials. Looking ahead, CITIC Securities predicts that the December Federal Reserve meeting may become the peak of the current "hawkish panic" sentiment, after which the market's trading focus may shift to Trump's nomination game for the new Federal Reserve chairman; at that time, unless a relatively hawkish candidate who does not support QE, similar to Kevin Warsh, is nominated, the market is expected to return to trading based on the logic of monetary policy easing once the new chairman's selection is finalized. **The extreme narrative of the "AI bubble" bursting may be difficult to manifest in the short term.** On the demand side, the diversified competitive landscape of the U.S. and China’s dual dominance drives model iteration and full-stack innovation. According to Google's earnings call, the monthly processing volume of Google Tokens skyrocketed from 9.7 trillion on April 9, 2024, to 130 trillion in October 2025. Under neutral assumptions, it is expected that by the end of 2026, the global monthly Token consumption will still see a threefold increase compared to the current level, and by 2030, with the popularization of multimodal and AI agents, it may achieve a twentyfold expansion. On the supply side, the continuous upgrade of chip and system performance reduces the unit computing power cost, providing support for demand release, and there are still bottlenecks in multiple links of the supply chain, making concerns about overcapacity unfounded. In terms of commercialization, there is currently a disconnect between Token consumption and commercial returns, but the gradual implementation of three major scenarios—advertising placement, Agent Commerce, and enterprise-level solutions—will drive the industry’s transformation from "scale growth" to "value growth," with breakthroughs in SaaS commercialization expected to be key in the medium to short term. On the funding side, according to various companies' earnings communication meetings, the combined CAPEX of the four major global tech giants in Q3 2025 increased by 74% year-on-year, and they have all raised their guidance. Strong cash flow and policy tax incentives provide funding support. In terms of risks, CITIC Securities believes that the penetration rate of AI search is about to reach a ceiling, and subsequent Token growth will rely on C-end scenarios and Agent implementation. Debt financing risks are concentrated among small and medium-sized cloud service providers, and the ecological cooperation between OpenAI and NVIDIA is difficult to falsify in the short term, which overall does not constitute an inducement for an industry-wide bubble burst. **U.S. stock earnings expectations continue to be revised upward, and valuations have narrowed.** Since the end of October, U.S. stock earnings expectations have continued to be revised upward, with revisions concentrated in information technology and healthcare sectors; at the same time, the index and price pullbacks across multiple sectors combined with profit upgrades have led to a significant narrowing of dynamic valuations. According to LSEG data, as of November 21, the revenue growth expectations for SPX500 in 2025/2026 have been revised upward by 0.1pcts/0.4pcts compared to the end of October, and the earnings growth expectations have been revised upward by 0.03pcts/1.0pct, respectively. However, during the same period, the S&P 500/NASDAQ 100 fell by 4.2%/6.5%, leading to a rapid decline in the PE/PEG ratios of U.S. stocks. From a structural perspective, the upward revision of revenue growth expectations for 2025 is mainly concentrated in the information technology and financial sectors, with revisions of 0.4pcts/0.4pcts, respectively; the upward revision of earnings growth expectations is mainly concentrated in the real estate, information technology, and energy sectors, with revisions of 0.7pcts/0.5pcts/0.5pcts, respectively; The expected revenue growth rate for 2026 has been revised upward, mainly concentrated in the healthcare and communication services sectors, with revisions of 1.7 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points, respectively. The expected profit growth rate has been revised upward mainly in the healthcare and consumer staples sectors, with revisions of 3.6 percentage points and 2.2 percentage points, respectively. During the same period, the declines in information technology/non-core consumer/industrial sectors and the decrease in valuation (PE TTM) were the largest. CITIC Securities believes that the recent pullback in U.S. stocks, especially technology stocks, is primarily driven by a contraction in valuation multiples rather than a deterioration in profit expectations. **U.S. Stock Outlook: After the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December, U.S. stocks are expected to regain an upward trend.** In the short term, U.S. institutional investors are expected to gradually decrease their trading participation after Thanksgiving on November 27 this year, which may correspond to an increase in retail trading activity. Regarding expectations for monetary policy, there may not be any significant new economic data disclosed before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December. The CPI data originally scheduled for disclosure by the U.S. Labor Department on December 10 will be postponed to December 18, and the U.S. Department of Commerce has also stated that the PCE price index originally planned for disclosure on November 26 will be "disclosed at a later date." The third-quarter reports of major U.S. stocks are also expected to have been fully disclosed. Therefore, CITIC Securities predicts that U.S. stocks will generally experience slight fluctuations downward until the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on December 10-11, with funds shifting from technology to defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities. Subsequently, Trump is expected to nominate a new candidate for Federal Reserve Chairman, which is likely to lead to a more accommodative monetary policy expectation. As a result, U.S. stocks may begin to rebound in the second half of December, and the tax cuts for residents starting January 1 next year will also provide some support for the fundamentals related to employment and consumption. From an industry perspective, CITIC Securities recommends focusing on: 1) the technology sector in the U.S. stock market where valuations are more aligned with performance; 2) manufacturing, midstream and upstream resource products, and energy infrastructure (especially nuclear power) benefiting from the re-industrialization process and favorable policies; 3) military industry benefiting from increased fiscal spending; 4) internet diagnostics benefiting from reduced medical spending; 5) the financial sector (especially banks) during the interest rate cut cycle ### 相关股票 - [Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/XLF.US.md) - [CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. 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