--- title: "CSC: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue, injecting new momentum for the rise in gold prices" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/267941919.md" description: "CITIC Construction Investment Securities released a research report stating that expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the second half of the year are rising. The decline in nominal and real interest rates driven by the onset of rate cuts will inject new momentum into the rise of gold. In recent years, the pricing framework of gold in terms of the US dollar and real interest rates has \"failed.\" The structure of gold demand has undergone profound changes, with global central bank purchases of gold and increased investment demand from the private sector in Asia, weakening US dollar credit, and increasing demand for gold credit endorsement" datetime: "2025-11-30T00:26:03.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/267941919.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/267941919.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/267941919.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/267941919.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/267941919.md) # CSC: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue, injecting new momentum for the rise in gold prices According to the research report released by CSC, since 2025, gold prices have been rising steadily, with international spot gold increasing from around $2,650 per ounce to a peak of $4,381 per ounce, repeatedly setting historical highs. This trend is primarily driven by factors related to de-dollarization, the independence of the Federal Reserve, central bank gold purchases, U.S. tariffs, geopolitical conflicts, and the inflation, employment, and Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations associated with the traditional real interest rate pricing framework. The investment demand from the private sector in Europe and the U.S. (such as ETF demand) still shows a strong correlation with the real interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds. As U.S. inflation declines and labor market resilience weakens, expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year are rising. The decline in nominal and real interest rates driven by these cuts will inject new momentum into the rise of gold prices. **In recent years, the dollar and real interest rate pricing framework for gold has "failed."** In traditional asset pricing models, gold is regarded as a benchmark asset for pricing liquidity. Historical patterns have shown that gold prices often trend contrary to the two indicators of dollar and real interest rates, which measure liquidity. However, since 2023, the correlation between gold and traditional indicators has gradually been broken, especially in 2024, where gold performance has diverged from both real interest rate pricing and dollar pricing, indicating that the pricing framework for gold needs to be improved and refined. **Marginal demand has increased its explanatory power for gold pricing.** Returning to traditional supply and demand logic, due to the relatively stable supply of gold, with annual production maintaining around 3,600 tons, the true pricing variable for gold lies in demand, particularly marginal demand. Gold demand mainly consists of three parts: private sector consumption demand, private sector investment demand, and official gold purchase demand. In the past, marginal demand for gold was mainly contributed by ETF demand from Europe and the U.S. (private sector investment demand in these regions, primarily from overseas institutional investors), and this demand or investment framework mainly depended on the real interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds. Since 2023, the structure of gold demand has undergone profound changes, with global central bank gold purchases and the elasticity of private sector investment demand in Asia (especially China) significantly increasing, while the pricing weight of overseas institutional investors for gold has been notably weakened. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/41efd2028dd67efbf5a5ce4d2adf2ec0.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/6efa0fc456ef0d97294b855b2fe92acf.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **Weakening dollar credit has increased the demand for gold credit endorsement and U.S. Treasury bond alternatives.** **Central bank gold purchases have become a medium to long-term trend, and demand will continue to remain high.** In recent years, the excessive issuance of the dollar has led to an increasing proportion of total U.S. debt to GDP. In 2022, due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the U.S. excluded Russia from the SWIFT settlement system, reinforcing the recognition of diversifying other currencies and assets in non-U.S. economies, further accelerating the global de-dollarization process. Gold, as a "decentralized" and borderless currency that does not rely on the credit of any specific country, has its status validated over thousands of years. This trust is based on a historical consensus on its value, making gold an important means for central banks of various countries to achieve asset diversification and hedge against geopolitical risks According to a report from the European Central Bank, driven by record purchasing volumes and soaring gold prices, gold has surpassed the euro to become the world's second-largest reserve asset for central banks. In 2024, gold is expected to account for 20% of global official reserves, exceeding the euro's 16%, and second only to the dollar's 46%. **In addition to central bank gold purchases, private sector investment demand in emerging market countries will continue to increase.** Based on a logic similar to central bank gold purchases, the private sector in emerging market countries, after achieving trade surpluses with Western countries, will shift part of their allocation from U.S. Treasury bonds and other dollar assets to other types of investment products, with gold being one of the important investment categories. As the financial order is restructured amid tariff disputes and global financial market volatility, along with the continued decline in the credibility of the U.S. government, the allocation ratio of "alternative currencies" like gold will continue to rise. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/0c4ab0d27c7c32c44c46256a31cabf43.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/f7fe9201fd9e59302a2521f4192802b2.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) **The Fed's interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue in H2 2025** Private sector investment demand in Europe and the U.S. (such as ETF demand) remains strongly correlated with the actual interest rates of U.S. Treasury bonds. As U.S. inflation declines and labor market resilience weakens, expectations for Fed interest rate cuts in the second half of the year are rising. The decline in nominal and real interest rates triggered by the onset of rate cuts will inject new momentum into gold prices. ![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/986c030cc905838e017c67f8a5fe7cb0.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg)![Image](https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/http://img.zhitongcaijing.com/images/contentformat/44dbc4c85034991635620dc4233222ac.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg) ### 相关股票 - [CSC (601066.CN)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/601066.CN.md) - [CSC (06066.HK)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/06066.HK.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [CSC Financial Sets March 26 Board Meeting to Approve 2025 Results and Consider Final Dividend](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/278690811.md) - [Cosigo Resources Extends Private Placement to Advance Gold Exploration Assets](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281460385.md) - [Patriot Gold Delays Annual 10-K Filing](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281227435.md) - [Gold’s 200-Day Bounce: Reversal Signal or Market Trap?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281422495.md) - [Maple Gold Mines Grants Annual Equity Incentives to Align Leadership with Shareholders](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281586389.md)