<p>作者：Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<p>Warren Pies 表示，最终市场将在人工智能的采用中扩展</p>
<p>策略师 Warren Pies 表示，2026 年可能会带来一些令人兴奋的人工智能发展，帮助牛市扩展。</p>
<p>股票、债券、石油。策略师 Warren Pies 今年在这些方面都做出了准确的预测，他在去年 12 月对标准普尔 500 指数的 6800 点预测在 2025 年最后几天看起来相当不错。</p>
<p>在我们今天的电话采访中，3Fourteen Research 的创始人兼投资组合经理与 MarketWatch 谈论了未来一年，他有一个重要的观察：&#34;我认为普通投资者过于担心市场被高估了。&#34;</p>
<p>首先是他的预测。去年 12 月，Pies 预测标准普尔 500 指数在 2025 年上半年会因情绪过于高涨而出现修正——这一点在 4 月得到了验证。他在 2 月时将股票的基准权重下调，5 月时又提高到超配，7 月底回到基准，感恩节前再次回到超配。</p>
<p>尽管他们错过了一些秋季股票的上涨，Pies 表示&#34;关键是我们从未减持。&#34;</p>
<p>他说，他们还准确预测了今年将有三到四次美联储降息——第四次可能在下周到来，并且全年对原油持悲观态度，预计其会下跌，形成&#34;通胀的顺风&#34;。他再次是对的。</p>
<p>但 Pies 表示，今年最重要的是正确预测了债券市场的方向，预测 10 年期国债收益率在 1 月达到 4.8% 将是高点，并将在下半年跌破 4%。</p>
<p>&#34;我认为，如果有人今年对市场感到担忧，他们最担心的是债券市场的抛售会影响股票市场，&#34;他说。</p>
<p>Pies 自己投资，并管理着 2.25 亿美元的 SMI 3Fourteen 全周期趋势 ETF（FCTE）和约 5 亿美元的 SMI 3Fourteen 真实资产配置 ETF（RAA），他认为今年年底的看涨股票动能可能会持续到明年初。</p>
<p>但和去年一样，他担心进入 2026 年时过于乐观。&#34;我不知道明年上半年是否需要像去年那样严重的修正，但我认为我们需要一些东西来打破上半年的乐观情绪，&#34;他说。</p>
<p>他承认，考虑到美联储的鸽派前景以及整体盈利和经济乐观，熊市的情况很难出现。他认为美联储和其他政策将有助于平滑不均衡的 K 型经济，这种经济似乎不成比例地偏向富裕的美国人，而不是低收入家庭。</p>
<p>Pies 也不担心估值问题，指出预计利润率将在 2027 年前上升 180 个基点。&#34;当利润率上升时，通常不会出现倍数收缩，&#34;他说。</p>
<p>他也不担心标准普尔 500 指数的相对高估值，认为市场的组成已经改变为利润率更高的成熟科技公司。他解释说，当周期性业务（如炼油厂）的利润率上升时，通常会给予较低的倍数，因为这些上升的利润率是周期性现象。</p>
<p>&#34;当整体市场的主要组成部分转向非典型的成熟科技公司时，如我们现在所看到的，较高的利润率会导致更高的倍数，&#34;他说。</p>
<p>他说，他们去年写道，标准普尔 500 指数将在 2026 年初达到 7000 点，仍然不会被高估。如果牛市能够扩展，他预计标准普尔 500 指数在接下来的 15 到 18 个月内可能会突破 8000 点，并且&#34;在我们的假设下仍然不会被高估。&#34;</p>
<p>它将如何扩展？他不认为市场领导地位会从科技领域转移，但更多的股票将&#34;随之而动。&#34;</p>
<p>他预计首批受益者将是高质量、大市值的非科技股票，如沃尔玛（WMT）、好市多（COST）和麦克凯森（MCK）。&#34;那些利润率相对较窄的股票是人工智能首先出现的最佳例子，&#34;因为在大公司中，人工智能的采用率要高得多，他说。</p>
<p>牛市还需要扩展的是明年人工智能的采用率提高。他预计将在技术之外看到人工智能的进展，例如在医疗和制药领域的突破，如药物发现。</p>
<p>&#34;我认为明年会看到真正的企业级人工智能应用，&#34;他说。</p>
<p>市场</p>
<p>美国股指期货（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）变化不大，黄金（GC00）和白银（SI00）下滑，而比特币（BTCUSD）在 93,000 美元以上坚挺。</p>
<p>热点</p>
<p>在周三私人部门就业人数意外下降后，周度失业救济申请将在上午 8:30 引起关注。</p>
<p>Salesforce 的股票（CRM）在软件集团上调预测并提到其人工智能产品的动能后上涨。</p>
<p>欧盟正在调查 Meta（META）关于其 WhatsApp 的人工智能政策。</p>
<p>今年表现出色的股票 Snowflake（SNOW）在数据仓库软件集团报告产品收入增长放缓后下跌 8%。</p>
<p>网络最佳</p>
<p>高盛的首席策略师在 31 年后退休。他目前看到的泡沫。</p>
<p>华尔街想要参与婴儿的 “特朗普账户”。</p>
<p>Bessent 表示，美联储理事会可能会 “否决” 未来的地区主席。</p>
<p>图表</p>
<p>这张摩根大通的图表显示，零售投资者今年在市场上占据了优势。分析师分拆出他们推测零售投资者投入资金的 ETF。“在 ETF 中——代表了今年零售投资者投资的 75% 的资金，零售投资者的表现超过了 SPY 和 QQQ，这要归功于他们对科技的更大偏好以及在 9 月和 10 月黄金热潮中成功的风险投资，” 他们说。</p>
<p>热门股票</p>
<p>截至早上 6 点，这些是 MarketWatch 上搜索最多的股票代码：</p>
<p>随机阅读</p>
<p>“全面狂暴。” 浣熊的醉酒闯入。</p>
<p>一个逃税的蜗牛帝国。</p>
<p>可爱的婴儿驼羊是吉尔吉斯斯坦的超级明星。</p>
<p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（结束）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>12-04-25 0713ET</p>

<p>策略师沃伦·派斯以准确的市场预测而闻名，他警告称 2026 年初可能会出现 “乐观情绪的动荡”。他预计人工智能的发展将扩大牛市，标准普尔 500 指数有可能达到 8000 点。派斯强调了非科技行业采用人工智能的重要性，并预计高质量的大盘股将受益。尽管存在担忧，他对市场估值仍持乐观态度，指出利润率上升和美联储的鸽派立场。派斯管理着大量资产，并强调人工智能进步对于维持市场增长的必要性</p>

<p>By Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
</div><p>Warren Pies says ultimately market will broaden out with AI adoption</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Warren Pies 表示，最终市场将在人工智能的采用中扩展</p>
</div><p>2026 could bring some exciting AI developments that help the bull market broaden out, says strategist Warren Pies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>策略师 Warren Pies 表示，2026 年可能会带来一些令人兴奋的人工智能发展，帮助牛市扩展。</p>
</div><p>Stocks, bonds, oil. Strategist Warren Pies has made accurate calls on all of those this year, with his 6,800 forecast on the S&amp;P 500 made last December looking pretty good heading into the final days of 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>股票、债券、石油。策略师 Warren Pies 今年在这些方面都做出了准确的预测，他在去年 12 月对标准普尔 500 指数的 6800 点预测在 2025 年最后几天看起来相当不错。</p>
</div><p>In our call of the day, the founder and portfolio manager at 3Fourteen Research talks to MarketWatch about the year ahead, with one big observation: &#34;I think the average investor is too hung up on this market being overvalued.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在我们今天的电话采访中，3Fourteen Research 的创始人兼投资组合经理与 MarketWatch 谈论了未来一年，他有一个重要的观察：&#34;我认为普通投资者过于担心市场被高估了。&#34;</p>
</div><p>First, his calls. Last December, Pies predicted an S&amp;P 500 SPX correction in the first half of 2025 on stretched sentiment - that arrived in April. He had dropped to a benchmark weight on stocks in February, then overweight in May, back to benchmark in late July and returned to an overweight just before Thanksgiving.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先是他的预测。去年 12 月，Pies 预测标准普尔 500 指数在 2025 年上半年会因情绪过于高涨而出现修正——这一点在 4 月得到了验证。他在 2 月时将股票的基准权重下调，5 月时又提高到超配，7 月底回到基准，感恩节前再次回到超配。</p>
</div><p>While they missed out on some of the autumn stock run, Pies said &#34;the key is we never went underweight.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管他们错过了一些秋季股票的上涨，Pies 表示&#34;关键是我们从未减持。&#34;</p>
</div><p>He said they also accurately predicted between three and four Fed rate cuts this year - the fourth is likely to come next week, and were bearish on crude all year, expecting it to break down, creating an &#34;inflationary tailwind.&#34; Again he was right.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，他们还准确预测了今年将有三到四次美联储降息——第四次可能在下周到来，并且全年对原油持悲观态度，预计其会下跌，形成&#34;通胀的顺风&#34;。他再次是对的。</p>
</div><p>But Pies said the most important thing that got the direction of the bond market right this year, forecasting a 4.8% yield reached in January on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y would mark a high, and it would drop below 4% in the second half.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但 Pies 表示，今年最重要的是正确预测了债券市场的方向，预测 10 年期国债收益率在 1 月达到 4.8% 将是高点，并将在下半年跌破 4%。</p>
</div><p>&#34;And I think that if there were people who were worried about the market this year, they were most worried about the bond market selling off in hurting stock markets,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我认为，如果有人今年对市场感到担忧，他们最担心的是债券市场的抛售会影响股票市场，&#34;他说。</p>
</div><p>Pies, who invests his own money and manages the $225 million SMI 3Fourteen Full-Cycle Trend ETF FCTE and around $500 million for the SMI 3Fourteen REAL Asset Allocation ETF RAA, believes bullish stock momentum from the end of this year will likely carry on until the start of next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pies 自己投资，并管理着 2.25 亿美元的 SMI 3Fourteen 全周期趋势 ETF（FCTE）和约 5 亿美元的 SMI 3Fourteen 真实资产配置 ETF（RAA），他认为今年年底的看涨股票动能可能会持续到明年初。</p>
</div><p>But like last year, he worries there's far too much optimism headed into 2026. &#34;I don't know that we need as severe a correction in the first half of next year as we got last year, but I think we'll need something to shake out the optimistic sentiment in the first half of the year,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但和去年一样，他担心进入 2026 年时过于乐观。&#34;我不知道明年上半年是否需要像去年那样严重的修正，但我认为我们需要一些东西来打破上半年的乐观情绪，&#34;他说。</p>
</div><p>He acknowledges a bear case is tough, given prospects for a dovish Fed and general earnings and economic optimism. He thinks the Fed and other policies will help smooth out an uneven K-shaped economy, which appears to be disproportionately favoring wealthier Americans over lower income households.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他承认，考虑到美联储的鸽派前景以及整体盈利和经济乐观，熊市的情况很难出现。他认为美联储和其他政策将有助于平滑不均衡的 K 型经济，这种经济似乎不成比例地偏向富裕的美国人，而不是低收入家庭。</p>
</div><p>Pies also doesn't share valuation fears, noting estimate for profit margins to rise by 180 basis points through 2027. &#34;When margins are rising, you don't see in general multiple contractions,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Pies 也不担心估值问题，指出预计利润率将在 2027 年前上升 180 个基点。&#34;当利润率上升时，通常不会出现倍数收缩，&#34;他说。</p>
</div><p>He also doesn't share worries about high relative valuations of the S&amp;P 500, arguing the composition of the market has changed to mature tech companies with higher margins. He explains that when margins rise for a cyclical business such as an oil refinery, it's given a lower multiple because those rising margins are a cyclical phenomenon.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他也不担心标准普尔 500 指数的相对高估值，认为市场的组成已经改变为利润率更高的成熟科技公司。他解释说，当周期性业务（如炼油厂）的利润率上升时，通常会给予较低的倍数，因为这些上升的利润率是周期性现象。</p>
</div><p>&#34;When as a whole, the main composition of the market switches to nontypical, mature tech like we see right now, higher margins result in much higher multiples,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;当整体市场的主要组成部分转向非典型的成熟科技公司时，如我们现在所看到的，较高的利润率会导致更高的倍数，&#34;他说。</p>
</div><p>He said they wrote last year that the S&amp;P 500 would reach 7,000 in early 2026 and still not be overvalued. If the bull market can expand out, he expects the S&amp;P 500 SPX could clear 8,000 within the next 15 to 18 months, and &#34;it still would not be overvalued under our assumptions.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，他们去年写道，标准普尔 500 指数将在 2026 年初达到 7000 点，仍然不会被高估。如果牛市能够扩展，他预计标准普尔 500 指数在接下来的 15 到 18 个月内可能会突破 8000 点，并且&#34;在我们的假设下仍然不会被高估。&#34;</p>
</div><p>How will it broaden? He doesn't expect market leadership will shift away from the tech pockets but more stocks will be &#34;moving along for the ride.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>它将如何扩展？他不认为市场领导地位会从科技领域转移，但更多的股票将&#34;随之而动。&#34;</p>
</div><p>He expect the first beneficiaries will be higher-quality, larger-cap, non-tech stocks, such as Walmart (WMT), Costco (COST) and McKesson (MCK). &#34;Those stocks with relatively narrow margins are the best examples of a place for AI to show up first,&#34; because AI adoption rates are much higher in larger companies, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他预计首批受益者将是高质量、大市值的非科技股票，如沃尔玛（WMT）、好市多（COST）和麦克凯森（MCK）。&#34;那些利润率相对较窄的股票是人工智能首先出现的最佳例子，&#34;因为在大公司中，人工智能的采用率要高得多，他说。</p>
</div><p>What the bull market also needs to broaden is for AI adoption to pick up next year. He expects to see AI advancements outside of technology, such as breakthroughs in the healthcare and pharmaceutical spaces, like drug discoveries.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>牛市还需要扩展的是明年人工智能的采用率提高。他预计将在技术之外看到人工智能的进展，例如在医疗和制药领域的突破，如药物发现。</p>
</div><p>&#34;I think there are real enterprise uses of AI that you will see show up next year,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我认为明年会看到真正的企业级人工智能应用，&#34;他说。</p>
</div><p>The markets</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市场</p>
</div><p>U.S. stock futures (ES00) (YM00) (NQ00) are little changed, with gold (GC00) and silver (SI00) slipping while bitcoin (BTCUSD) is firmer above $93,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国股指期货（ES00）（YM00）（NQ00）变化不大，黄金（GC00）和白银（SI00）下滑，而比特币（BTCUSD）在 93,000 美元以上坚挺。</p>
</div><p>The buzz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>热点</p>
</div><p>Following Wednesday's surprising jobs drop in private-sector payrolls, weekly jobless claims will swing into focus at 8:30 a.m.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在周三私人部门就业人数意外下降后，周度失业救济申请将在上午 8:30 引起关注。</p>
</div><p>Salesforce shares (CRM) are rising after the software group lifted its forecast and cited momentum for its AI products.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Salesforce 的股票（CRM）在软件集团上调预测并提到其人工智能产品的动能后上涨。</p>
</div><p>The EU is investigating Meta (META) over its AI policy for WhatsApp.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>欧盟正在调查 Meta（META）关于其 WhatsApp 的人工智能政策。</p>
</div><p>A dazzling stock this year, Snowflake (SNOW) is falling 8% after the data-warehousing software group reported slowing product-revenue growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年表现出色的股票 Snowflake（SNOW）在数据仓库软件集团报告产品收入增长放缓后下跌 8%。</p>
</div><p>Best of the web</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>网络最佳</p>
</div><p>Goldman's chief strategist is retiring after 31 years. Where he sees a bubble right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛的首席策略师在 31 年后退休。他目前看到的泡沫。</p>
</div><p>Wall Street wants in on the 'Trump Accounts' for babies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>华尔街想要参与婴儿的 “特朗普账户”。</p>
</div><p>Bessent says Federal Reserve Board could 'veto' future regional presidents.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Bessent 表示，美联储理事会可能会 “否决” 未来的地区主席。</p>
</div><p>The chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>图表</p>
</div><p>This JPMorgan chart shows how retail investors had the edge over markets this year. The analysts split out the ETFs that they deduced retail investors put their money in. &#34;In ETFs - which represented 75% of retail's invested dollars this year, retail investors outperformed both SPY SPY and QQQ QQQ, thanks to their larger tech bias and successful risk-taking in precious metals during the September and October gold rush,&#34; they said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这张摩根大通的图表显示，零售投资者今年在市场上占据了优势。分析师分拆出他们推测零售投资者投入资金的 ETF。“在 ETF 中——代表了今年零售投资者投资的 75% 的资金，零售投资者的表现超过了 SPY 和 QQQ，这要归功于他们对科技的更大偏好以及在 9 月和 10 月黄金热潮中成功的风险投资，” 他们说。</p>
</div><p>Top tickers</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>热门股票</p>
</div><p>These were the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m.:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至早上 6 点，这些是 MarketWatch 上搜索最多的股票代码：</p>
</div><p>Random reads</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随机阅读</p>
</div><p>&#34;Full-blown rampage.&#34; Raccoon's boozy break-in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“全面狂暴。” 浣熊的醉酒闯入。</p>
</div><p>A tax-dodging snail empire.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一个逃税的蜗牛帝国。</p>
</div><p>The adorable baby llama is a Kyrgyzstan superstar.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可爱的婴儿驼羊是吉尔吉斯斯坦的超级明星。</p>
</div><p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Barbara Kollmeyer</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（结束）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>12-04-25 0713ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12-04-25 0713ET</p>
</div>

Strategist who nailed stocks, bonds and oil this year warns of 'optimism shakeout' in early 2026

- 策略师 Warren Pies 预测 2026 年 AI 发展将推动牛市扩展。  
- 他认为市场乐观情绪过高，需在明年上半年进行调整。  
- Pies 预计 S&P 500 将在未来 15 至 18 个月内突破 8000 点。

今年成功预测股票、债券和石油走势的策略师警告称，2026 年初可能会出现 ‘乐观情绪的动摇’