<ul>
<li>想知道阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰是否仍然是您投资组合中的长期必备品，还是最近的涨幅让它看起来有些昂贵？这份分析将探讨当前股价实际上意味着什么。</li>
<li>该股票在过去一个月上涨了 4.8%，年初至今上涨了 17.5%，但仍在从过去三年 29.3% 的下滑中恢复。这使得当前 19.2% 的年收益率尤其引人关注。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰加大对其核心农业供应链的投入，并扩展更高利润的营养和生物燃料领域。这表明公司在战略上推动平衡周期性商品风险与更稳定的收益驱动因素。同时，关于全球粮食安全和贸易流动的持续讨论使得投资者关注像阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰这样的公司，这些公司处于谷物和油籽生态系统的核心。</li>
<li>根据我们的检查，阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰在估值方面仅得 2/6 分，这表明它在仅几个指标上被视为低估，但这只是起点。接下来，我们将分析不同的估值方法对该股票的看法，然后以更全面的方式思考阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的真实价值。</li>
</ul>
<p>阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰在我们的估值检查中仅得 2/6 分。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
<h3>方法 1：阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来能够产生的现金流并将这些现金流折现回今天来估算企业的价值。对于阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰，最新的 12 个月自由现金流约为 47 亿美元，这构成了这里使用的两阶段自由现金流到股权模型的起点。</p>
<p>分析师对 2027 年的明确预测显示，自由现金流预计到那时将达到约 22 亿美元，而 Simply Wall St 进一步推测这些估计到 2035 年。到 2035 年，预计自由现金流将趋向于约 10 亿美元，反映出随着商品条件正常化和增长放缓，近期高现金生成的适度回落。</p>
<p>当所有这些预测的现金流被折现回去时，该模型得出的内在价值约为每股 48.81 美元。根据这一 DCF 估计，该股票相对于当前价格被认为大约高估 20.9%，这表明投资者已经为阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰未来现金流潜力的相当一部分付出了代价。</p>
<p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰可能被高估 20.9%。发现 906 只被低估的股票或创建您自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法 2：阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰价格与收益</h3>
<p>对于像阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰这样的盈利且成熟的公司，市盈率是衡量投资者愿意为每一美元当前收益支付多少的有用方式。它直接与底线相关，这通常比单纯的收入更稳定且可比较。</p>
<p>正常或合理的市盈率通常反映了收益预期增长的速度以及这些收益的风险程度。更快的增长和更低的风险通常会合理化更高的倍数，而较慢或更波动的收益则应以折扣交易。阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰目前的市盈率约为 23.9 倍，略高于食品行业平均水平约 21.8 倍，但略低于同行组平均水平约 25.0 倍。</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 对阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的公允比率约为 23.9 倍，这是其对阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰在考虑收益增长、利润率、行业、市场资本和公司特定风险等因素后应交易的市盈率倍数的专有估计。这比简单的同行或行业比较更具针对性，因为它调整了阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰自身的特征，而不是假设所有食品股票都应获得相同的倍数。由于该股票的实际市盈率几乎与这一公允比率完全一致，市场似乎今天对阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的定价相当合理。</p>
<p><strong>结果：大致合理</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:ADM 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1442 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
<h3>提升您的决策能力：选择您的阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰叙述</h3>
<p>早些时候我们提到有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向您介绍叙述，这是一种将您对阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰故事的看法与具体的财务预测和明确的公允价值估计相结合的简单方式。</p>
<p>叙述是您为公司构建的结构化故事，您阐明您认为收入、收益和利润率将如何演变，这些假设随后转化为预测财务数据和公允价值，您可以将其与今天的股价进行比较，以决定阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰是否看起来值得买入、持有或卖出。</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 上的叙述，向数百万投资者提供，易于使用，并随着新数据、收益或新闻的到来动态更新，因此您的故事和估值与现实保持同步，而不是过时。</p>
<p>例如，一个阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的叙述可能假设政策支持生物燃料和利润扩张使公允价值接近最近目标的高端，约 70 美元。另一个更谨慎的叙述可能关注需求阻力和利润压力，接近低端约 54 美元。这些公允价值与当前价格之间的差异为每位投资者提供了明确的个性化信号，以解读该股票。</p>
<p>你认为阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的故事还有更多内容吗？快来我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/community-fair-value?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="580" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/community-fair-value"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纽约证券交易所：ADM 社区公允价值</p>
<p><em>这篇文章来自 Simply Wall St，内容为一般性信息。<strong>我们基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章不构成财务建议。</strong> 这并不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>

阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰

<p>阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰 (ADM) 在过去一年中上涨了 19.2%，引发了对其估值的质疑。尽管最近进行了战略扩张，ADM 在估值检查中得分为 2/6，表明可能被高估。折现现金流分析显示，ADM 的估值高出 20.9%，而其市盈率与行业标准相符。投资者应考虑 ADM 在农业供应链和生物燃料领域的叙述和战略举措，以获得全面的估值视角</p>

<ul>
<li>Wondering if Archer-Daniels-Midland is still a long term staple for your portfolio or if the recent run makes it look a bit rich? This breakdown will walk through what the current share price is really implying.</li>
<li>The stock is up 4.8% over the last month and 17.5% year to date, yet it is still working its way back from a 3 year decline of 29.3%. That makes the current 19.2% 1 year gain especially interesting.</li>
<li>Recent headlines have centered on ADM doubling down on its core agricultural supply chain and expanding higher margin nutrition and biofuels segments. This signals a strategic push to balance cyclical commodity exposure with more stable earnings drivers. At the same time, ongoing discussions about global food security and trade flows have kept investor attention on companies like ADM that sit at the heart of the grain and oilseed ecosystem.</li>
<li>On our checks, ADM scores just 2/6 for valuation, suggesting it screens as undervalued on only a couple of metrics, but that is just the starting point. Next we will unpack what different valuation approaches say about the stock today, and then finish with a more holistic way to think about ADM's true worth.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>想知道阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰是否仍然是您投资组合中的长期必备品，还是最近的涨幅让它看起来有些昂贵？这份分析将探讨当前股价实际上意味着什么。</li>
<li>该股票在过去一个月上涨了 4.8%，年初至今上涨了 17.5%，但仍在从过去三年 29.3% 的下滑中恢复。这使得当前 19.2% 的年收益率尤其引人关注。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰加大对其核心农业供应链的投入，并扩展更高利润的营养和生物燃料领域。这表明公司在战略上推动平衡周期性商品风险与更稳定的收益驱动因素。同时，关于全球粮食安全和贸易流动的持续讨论使得投资者关注像阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰这样的公司，这些公司处于谷物和油籽生态系统的核心。</li>
<li>根据我们的检查，阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰在估值方面仅得 2/6 分，这表明它在仅几个指标上被视为低估，但这只是起点。接下来，我们将分析不同的估值方法对该股票的看法，然后以更全面的方式思考阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的真实价值。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Archer-Daniels-Midland scores just 2/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰在我们的估值检查中仅得 2/6 分。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: Archer-Daniels-Midland Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 1：阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>The Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and discounting those cash flows back to today. For Archer-Daniels-Midland, the latest twelve month Free Cash Flow sits at about $4.7 billion, which forms the starting point for the 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity model used here.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来能够产生的现金流并将这些现金流折现回今天来估算企业的价值。对于阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰，最新的 12 个月自由现金流约为 47 亿美元，这构成了这里使用的两阶段自由现金流到股权模型的起点。</p>
</div><p>Analysts have explicit forecasts through 2027, with Free Cash Flow expected to reach around $2.2 billion by then, and Simply Wall St extrapolates these estimates further out to 2035. By 2035, projected Free Cash Flow trends toward roughly $1.0 billion, reflecting a moderation from recent elevated cash generation as commodity conditions normalize and growth slows over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析师对 2027 年的明确预测显示，自由现金流预计到那时将达到约 22 亿美元，而 Simply Wall St 进一步推测这些估计到 2035 年。到 2035 年，预计自由现金流将趋向于约 10 亿美元，反映出随着商品条件正常化和增长放缓，近期高现金生成的适度回落。</p>
</div><p>When all of these projected cash flows are discounted back, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of about $48.81 per share. Based on this DCF estimate, the stock screens as roughly 20.9% overvalued relative to its current price, which indicates that investors are already paying for a sizable portion of ADM’s future cash flow potential.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当所有这些预测的现金流被折现回去时，该模型得出的内在价值约为每股 48.81 美元。根据这一 DCF 估计，该股票相对于当前价格被认为大约高估 20.9%，这表明投资者已经为阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰未来现金流潜力的相当一部分付出了代价。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Archer-Daniels-Midland may be overvalued by 20.9%. Discover 906 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰可能被高估 20.9%。发现 906 只被低估的股票或创建您自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>ADM Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Archer-Daniels-Midland.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: Archer-Daniels-Midland Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 2：阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰价格与收益</h3>
</div><p>For profitable, established companies like Archer-Daniels-Midland, the price to earnings ratio is a useful way to gauge what investors are willing to pay for each dollar of current earnings. It ties directly to the bottom line, which tends to be more stable and comparable across businesses than revenue alone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰这样的盈利且成熟的公司，市盈率是衡量投资者愿意为每一美元当前收益支付多少的有用方式。它直接与底线相关，这通常比单纯的收入更稳定且可比较。</p>
</div><p>A normal or fair PE ratio typically reflects how quickly earnings are expected to grow and how risky those earnings are. Faster growth and lower risk usually justify a higher multiple, while slower or more volatile earnings should trade on a discount. ADM currently trades on a PE of about 23.9x, which is slightly above the Food industry average of around 21.8x but a touch below the peer group average of roughly 25.0x.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>正常或合理的市盈率通常反映了收益预期增长的速度以及这些收益的风险程度。更快的增长和更低的风险通常会合理化更高的倍数，而较慢或更波动的收益则应以折扣交易。阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰目前的市盈率约为 23.9 倍，略高于食品行业平均水平约 21.8 倍，但略低于同行组平均水平约 25.0 倍。</p>
</div><p>Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio for ADM comes in at about 23.9x, which is its proprietary estimate of the PE multiple ADM should trade on after accounting for factors like earnings growth, margins, industry, market cap, and company specific risks. This is more tailored than a simple peer or industry comparison, because it adjusts for ADM’s own profile rather than assuming all Food stocks deserve the same multiple. With the stock’s actual PE almost exactly in line with this Fair Ratio, the market appears to be pricing ADM quite sensibly today.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 对阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的公允比率约为 23.9 倍，这是其对阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰在考虑收益增长、利润率、行业、市场资本和公司特定风险等因素后应交易的市盈率倍数的专有估计。这比简单的同行或行业比较更具针对性，因为它调整了阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰自身的特征，而不是假设所有食品股票都应获得相同的倍数。由于该股票的实际市盈率几乎与这一公允比率完全一致，市场似乎今天对阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的定价相当合理。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: ABOUT RIGHT</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：大致合理</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:ADM PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:ADM 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1442 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1442 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Archer-Daniels-Midland Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升您的决策能力：选择您的阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰叙述</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of Archer-Daniels-Midland's story with a concrete financial forecast and a clear fair value estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>早些时候我们提到有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向您介绍叙述，这是一种将您对阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰故事的看法与具体的财务预测和明确的公允价值估计相结合的简单方式。</p>
</div><p>A Narrative is your own structured storyline for the company, where you spell out how you think revenue, earnings, and margins will evolve, and those assumptions are then turned into projected financials and a fair value you can compare to today’s share price to decide whether ADM looks like a buy, a hold, or a sell.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>叙述是您为公司构建的结构化故事，您阐明您认为收入、收益和利润率将如何演变，这些假设随后转化为预测财务数据和公允价值，您可以将其与今天的股价进行比较，以决定阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰是否看起来值得买入、持有或卖出。</p>
</div><p>Narratives on Simply Wall St, available to millions of investors on the Community page, are easy to use and are updated dynamically as new data, earnings, or news arrive, so your story and valuation stay in sync with reality instead of going stale.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 上的叙述，向数百万投资者提供，易于使用，并随着新数据、收益或新闻的到来动态更新，因此您的故事和估值与现实保持同步，而不是过时。</p>
</div><p>For example, one ADM Narrative might assume policy support for biofuels and margin expansion justify a fair value close to the high end of recent targets around $70. Another more cautious Narrative might focus on demand headwinds and margin pressure and land nearer the low end around $54. The difference between those fair values and the current price gives each investor a clear, personalized signal on how to interpret the stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一个阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的叙述可能假设政策支持生物燃料和利润扩张使公允价值接近最近目标的高端，约 70 美元。另一个更谨慎的叙述可能关注需求阻力和利润压力，接近低端约 54 美元。这些公允价值与当前价格之间的差异为每位投资者提供了明确的个性化信号，以解读该股票。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for Archer-Daniels-Midland? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰的故事还有更多内容吗？快来我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/community-fair-value" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/e5b0a45e-ec54-4955-9930-f80d178e3ff1/chart/community-fair-value"/></p>
<p>NYSE:ADM Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纽约证券交易所：ADM 社区公允价值</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇文章来自 Simply Wall St，内容为一般性信息。<strong>我们基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章不构成财务建议。</strong> 这并不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
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阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰最近 19.2% 的涨幅是否合理，是否由其现金流和盈利前景所支撑？