<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1152" height="720" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>周二，黄金价格上涨，投资者在美国联邦储备委员会为期两天的会议开始前保持谨慎。</p>
<p>银价上涨，跟随黄金的急剧上涨，周二价格上涨近 2%。</p>
<p>与此同时，油价略微下跌，因市场对供应充足的担忧，以及投资者关注俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的和平谈判。</p>
<p>由于全球最大金属消费国中国的经济政策令市场失望，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的基本金属价格下跌。</p>
<h2>黄金上涨</h2>
<p>周二，黄金价格上涨，投资者预计联邦储备委员会将在 12 月降息。</p>
<p>他们还在关注政策制定者的迹象，因为他们的为期两天的会议今天晚些时候开始，看看是否会暗示未来放松政策的速度放缓。</p>
<p>根据 CME 的 FedWatch 工具，市场预计在联邦储备委员会周三政策会议结束后，降息 25 个基点的可能性为 89.4%。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-88-1024x698.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="698" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-88-1024x698.png"/></p>
<p>来源：CME 集团</p>
<p>然而，主要关注点仍然是关于未来利率走势的前瞻性指引。</p>
<p>历史上，降低利率往往有利于无收益资产，如黄金。</p>
<p>最近的经济指标呈现出混合的局面。</p>
<p>上周的数据表明，美国个人消费支出价格指数（联邦储备委员会偏好的通胀指标）与预测一致，而消费者信心在 12 月有所改善。</p>
<p>相反，11 月私人就业人数经历了两年半以来的最大下降，尽管截至 11 月 28 日的那一周，失业救济申请人数降至三年来的最低水平。</p>
<p>根据国际清算银行（BIS）的报告，零售投资者的投机性购买加剧了自 9 月以来黄金价格的上涨。这种行为导致黄金偏离了其作为避险资产的典型角色。</p>
<p>“相反，黄金价格的上涨与股票等风险资产类别一致，” 德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）商品分析师卡斯滕·弗里茨（Carsten Fritsch）表示。</p>
<h2>油价下跌</h2>
<p>周二，油价略微下跌，延续了前一交易日 2% 的跌幅。</p>
<p>投资者密切关注最新进展，包括解决俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突的和平谈判、对市场供应充足的担忧，以及即将做出的美国利率决策。</p>
<p>根据海关数据，11 月中国原油进口大幅超过国内需求，达到 5089 万吨，相当于每日 1240 万桶。</p>
<p>11 月的进口量是自 2023 年 8 月以来单月最高，按日计算。与去年相比，这一数字增长了 5%，与上个月相比增长了 9%。</p>
<p>周一，油价每桶下跌超过 1 美元。这一下降是由于伊拉克的西库尔纳 2 号油田恢复生产，该油田由卢克石油公司运营，被认为是世界上最大的油田之一。</p>
<p>与此同时，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基将在与法国、德国和英国领导人于伦敦的讨论后，向美国提出修订的和平提案。</p>
<p>截至撰写时，西德克萨斯中质原油价格为每桶 58.72 美元，下跌 0.3%；布伦特原油价格为每桶 62.35 美元，下跌 0.2%。</p>
<h2>基本金属</h2>
<p>中国共产党政治局周一召开会议，制定明年的经济政策，新闻稿指出将 “优先考虑” 国内需求。这一消息最初推动了周一基本金属价格的上涨。</p>
<p>然而，价格随后在当天再次下跌。</p>
<p>“这可能是因为对比今年和去年的新闻稿显示，优先事项变化不大，” 德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）外汇和商品分析师沃尔克马尔·鲍尔（Volkmar Baur）表示。</p>
<p>国内需求仍然是首要任务，类似于去年，尽管目前的重点是 “优先考虑”，而不是之前讨论的 “增加”。这一重点是在近期零售销售增长缓慢和投资同比实际下降的背景下提出的。</p>
<p>鲍尔表示：</p>
<blockquote>
<p>相比之下，周一的数据表明，出口和外贸顺差继续强劲增长，而国内需求则不然。</p>
</blockquote>
<p>铜价以新的历史高点开局，几乎达到了每吨 11,800 美元，自年初以来上涨了 33%。</p>
<p>与此同时，中国报告了强劲的经济表现，创下了第三大月度贸易顺差，得益于出口数据的强劲，较去年增长近 6%。</p>
<p>尽管铜矿进口同比增长近 13%，前 11 个月与去年同期相比增长近 8%（在经历了疲软的 10 月后有所恢复），但根据德国商业银行商品分析师芭芭拉·兰布雷希特（Barbara Lambrecht）的说法，铜的具体数据整体上提供的支持有限。</p>
<p>中国精炼铜产量显著增加——截至 10 月比去年增长 12.5%——是一个关键因素。</p>
<p>兰布雷希特补充道，与铜矿进口的增长相比，精炼铜产量的强劲增长解释了冶炼厂原材料短缺的现象。</p>
<p>商品综述：黄金因降息预期上涨，油价因供应担忧下跌，首发于 Invezz。</p>

<p>黄金价格因市场对美联储会议降息的预期而上涨，而由于供应担忧和地缘政治因素，油价下跌。由于中国经济政策公告未能令市场满意，基本金属价格下跌</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/AI-image-of-commodities.png"/></p>
<p>Gold prices rose on Tuesday as investors waited cautiously ahead of the start of the two-day meeting of the US Federal Reserve.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，黄金价格上涨，投资者在美国联邦储备委员会为期两天的会议开始前保持谨慎。</p>
</div><p>Silver rose, tracking sharp gains in gold as prices increased nearly 2% on Tuesday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>银价上涨，跟随黄金的急剧上涨，周二价格上涨近 2%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, oil prices fell slightly amid concerns over ample supply and as investors monitored the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，油价略微下跌，因市场对供应充足的担忧，以及投资者关注俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的和平谈判。</p>
</div><p>Base metal prices fell on the London Metal Exchange (LME) after the economic policy of the world’s biggest metal consumer, China, disappointed the market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于全球最大金属消费国中国的经济政策令市场失望，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的基本金属价格下跌。</p>
</div><h2>Gold climbs</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>黄金上涨</h2>
</div><p>Gold prices climbed on Tuesday as investors are anticipating an expected interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，黄金价格上涨，投资者预计联邦储备委员会将在 12 月降息。</p>
</div><p>They are also looking for indications from policymakers, as their two-day meeting starts later today, on whether they will signal a slower trajectory for future easing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他们还在关注政策制定者的迹象，因为他们的为期两天的会议今天晚些时候开始，看看是否会暗示未来放松政策的速度放缓。</p>
</div><p>The market anticipates an 89.4% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut following the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting on Wednesday, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 CME 的 FedWatch 工具，市场预计在联邦储备委员会周三政策会议结束后，降息 25 个基点的可能性为 89.4%。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-88-1024x698.png" alt="" original-src="https://invezz.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/image-88-1024x698.png"/></p>
<p>Source: CME Group</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>来源：CME 集团</p>
</div><p>However, the primary interest remains on any forward guidance concerning the future trajectory of rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，主要关注点仍然是关于未来利率走势的前瞻性指引。</p>
</div><p>Historically, reduced interest rates tend to benefit non-yielding assets, such as gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，降低利率往往有利于无收益资产，如黄金。</p>
</div><p>Recent economic indicators have presented a mixed picture.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的经济指标呈现出混合的局面。</p>
</div><p>Last week’s data showed that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, aligned with forecasts, while consumer confidence improved during December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周的数据表明，美国个人消费支出价格指数（联邦储备委员会偏好的通胀指标）与预测一致，而消费者信心在 12 月有所改善。</p>
</div><p>Conversely, November saw private payrolls experience their most significant decline in over two and a half years, although jobless claims dropped to a three-year low for the week ending November 28.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相反，11 月私人就业人数经历了两年半以来的最大下降，尽管截至 11 月 28 日的那一周，失业救济申请人数降至三年来的最低水平。</p>
</div><p>Speculative buying by retail investors has amplified the increase in gold prices since September, according to a Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report. This behavior has caused gold to diverge from its typical role as a safe-haven asset.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据国际清算银行（BIS）的报告，零售投资者的投机性购买加剧了自 9 月以来黄金价格的上涨。这种行为导致黄金偏离了其作为避险资产的典型角色。</p>
</div><p>“Instead, the rise in the price of gold has been in line with risky asset classes such as equities,” said Carsten Fritsch, commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“相反，黄金价格的上涨与股票等风险资产类别一致，” 德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）商品分析师卡斯滕·弗里茨（Carsten Fritsch）表示。</p>
</div><h2>Oil falls</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>油价下跌</h2>
</div><p>Oil prices fell slightly on Tuesday, extending a 2% drop in the prior session.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周二，油价略微下跌，延续了前一交易日 2% 的跌幅。</p>
</div><p>Investors are closely monitoring the latest developments, including ongoing peace negotiations to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, worries about sufficient market supply, and an upcoming decision regarding US interest rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者密切关注最新进展，包括解决俄罗斯与乌克兰冲突的和平谈判、对市场供应充足的担忧，以及即将做出的美国利率决策。</p>
</div><p>In November, China’s crude oil imports dramatically surpassed its domestic requirements, reaching 50.89 million tons, which equates to 12.4 million barrels per day, according to customs data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据海关数据，11 月中国原油进口大幅超过国内需求，达到 5089 万吨，相当于每日 1240 万桶。</p>
</div><p>The import volume in November was the highest recorded in a single month since August 2023 when measured on a daily basis. This figure represents an increase of 5% compared to the previous year and 9% compared to the previous month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>11 月的进口量是自 2023 年 8 月以来单月最高，按日计算。与去年相比，这一数字增长了 5%，与上个月相比增长了 9%。</p>
</div><p>Oil prices dropped by over $1 a barrel on Monday. This decline followed the restoration of production at Iraq’s West Qurna 2 oilfield, operated by Lukoil and recognized as one of the world’s largest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周一，油价每桶下跌超过 1 美元。这一下降是由于伊拉克的西库尔纳 2 号油田恢复生产，该油田由卢克石油公司运营，被认为是世界上最大的油田之一。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, following discussions in London with the leaders of France, Germany, and Britain, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will present a revised peace proposal to the US.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基将在与法国、德国和英国领导人于伦敦的讨论后，向美国提出修订的和平提案。</p>
</div><p>At the time of writing, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil was at $58.72 per barrel, down 0.3%, while Brent was at $62.35 a barrel, down 0.2% from the previous close.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至撰写时，西德克萨斯中质原油价格为每桶 58.72 美元，下跌 0.3%；布伦特原油价格为每桶 62.35 美元，下跌 0.2%。</p>
</div><h2>Base metals</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>基本金属</h2>
</div><p>The Communist Party of China’s Politburo met Monday to set the economic policy for the coming year, with a press release stating that domestic demand will be “prioritised.” This news initially boosted base metal prices on Monday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国共产党政治局周一召开会议，制定明年的经济政策，新闻稿指出将 “优先考虑” 国内需求。这一消息最初推动了周一基本金属价格的上涨。</p>
</div><p>However, prices then fell again during the course of the day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，价格随后在当天再次下跌。</p>
</div><p>“This could be because a close comparison of this year’s and last year’s press releases shows that priorities have not changed much,” Volkmar Baur, FX and commodity analyst at Commerzbank AG, said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“这可能是因为对比今年和去年的新闻稿显示，优先事项变化不大，” 德国商业银行（Commerzbank AG）外汇和商品分析师沃尔克马尔·鲍尔（Volkmar Baur）表示。</p>
</div><p>Domestic demand remains the top priority, similar to last year, although the current emphasis is on ‘prioritisation’ rather than the ‘increase’ discussed previously. This focus comes amid slow growth in recent retail sales and an actual year-on-year decline in investment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国内需求仍然是首要任务，类似于去年，尽管目前的重点是 “优先考虑”，而不是之前讨论的 “增加”。这一重点是在近期零售销售增长缓慢和投资同比实际下降的背景下提出的。</p>
</div><p>Baur said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍尔表示：</p>
</div><blockquote>
<p>In contrast, Monday’s data showed that exports and the foreign trade surplus continue to grow strongly, unlike domestic demand.</p>
</blockquote>
<div class="lb-trans"><blockquote>
<p>相比之下，周一的数据表明，出口和外贸顺差继续强劲增长，而国内需求则不然。</p>
</blockquote>
</div><p>Starting the week at a new record high, copper reached almost $11,800 per ton, marking a 33% increase since the beginning of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>铜价以新的历史高点开局，几乎达到了每吨 11,800 美元，自年初以来上涨了 33%。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, China reported strong economic performance with its third-largest monthly trade surplus ever, fueled by impressive export figures that were nearly 6% higher than the previous year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，中国报告了强劲的经济表现，创下了第三大月度贸易顺差，得益于出口数据的强劲，较去年增长近 6%。</p>
</div><p>Despite an increase in copper ore imports, which were up almost 13% year-over-year and nearly 8% for the first eleven months compared to the same period last year (recovering somewhat after a weak October), the copper-specific figures offered little overall support, according to Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管铜矿进口同比增长近 13%，前 11 个月与去年同期相比增长近 8%（在经历了疲软的 10 月后有所恢复），但根据德国商业银行商品分析师芭芭拉·兰布雷希特（Barbara Lambrecht）的说法，铜的具体数据整体上提供的支持有限。</p>
</div><p>The significant increase in China’s refined copper production—12.5% higher through October than the previous year—was a key factor.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国精炼铜产量显著增加——截至 10 月比去年增长 12.5%——是一个关键因素。</p>
</div><p>This stronger growth in refined production, compared to the growth in copper ore imports, explains the acknowledged shortage of raw materials at smelters,Lambrecht added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>兰布雷希特补充道，与铜矿进口的增长相比，精炼铜产量的强劲增长解释了冶炼厂原材料短缺的现象。</p>
</div><p>The post Commodity wrap: gold climbs on rate cut hopes, oil drops on supply concerns appeared first on Invezz</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>商品综述：黄金因降息预期上涨，油价因供应担忧下跌，首发于 Invezz。</p>
</div>

商品综述：由于降息预期，黄金价格上涨；由于供应问题，石油价格下跌