--- title: "Goldman Sachs 2026 U.S. Stock Sector Outlook: Industrial Technology Stocks Remain \"Hot Cakes,\" Automotive Stocks Need \"Careful Selection\"" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269217769.md" description: "Goldman Sachs released its 2026 outlook report, predicting that industrial technology stocks will continue to outperform the market due to cyclical recovery and long-term growth opportunities, while automotive stocks, having reached historical norms in sales and showing weak growth, require selective investment. In 2025, industrial technology stocks rose by 63%, and automotive stocks by 23%, both exceeding the S&P 500 index. A reduction in interest rates in 2026 may support valuations, with an expected U.S. economic growth of 2-2.5%" datetime: "2025-12-10T10:54:04.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269217769.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269217769.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269217769.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269217769.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269217769.md) # Goldman Sachs 2026 U.S. Stock Sector Outlook: Industrial Technology Stocks Remain "Hot Cakes," Automotive Stocks Need "Careful Selection" According to the Zhitong Finance APP, Goldman Sachs recently released a 2026 outlook report for the U.S. automotive and industrial technology sectors, indicating that the overall performance of the sector will be impressive in 2025, with industrial technology stocks and automotive stocks both outperforming the S&P 500 index. Looking ahead to 2026, Goldman Sachs expects that industrial technology stocks will continue to outperform the market due to cyclical recovery and long-term growth opportunities in data centers/artificial intelligence (AI), energy infrastructure, and robotics automation; however, for the automotive sector, given that industry sales are at historically normal levels and future growth is weak, investors should adopt a selective strategy, focusing on stocks with company-specific drivers. **Strong performance in 2025, but significant volatility characteristics** The report points out that from the beginning of 2025 to the present, the median stock price of automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and tier-one suppliers covered by Goldman Sachs has risen by 23%, while the median increase for industrial technology stocks has reached 63%, compared to a mere 16% increase in the S&P 500 index during the same period. This performance reflects both end-demand trends and benefits from valuation multiple expansion. However, the industry has experienced significant volatility throughout the year. Automotive stocks saw a sharp decline in spring due to the impact of tariff policies, followed by a gradual recovery as tariff levels were lowered, while data center-related stocks exhibited volatility due to changes in expectations for large-scale capital expenditures. **2026 Outlook: Industrial technology stocks lead, automotive stocks focus on selection** For 2026, Goldman Sachs expects that interest rate cuts will provide valuation support, but the actual impact on stock performance will depend on the macroeconomic context—historical data shows that if rate cuts are not driven by economic recession, similar to the situation in 1995-1997, the covered stocks tend to perform well. Currently, Goldman Sachs anticipates further rate cuts in 2026, with its economics team believing that the risk of a U.S. economic recession is limited, projecting real GDP growth of 2-2.5% in 2026. Specifically, Goldman Sachs predicts that industrial technology stocks will continue to outperform the market in 2026. On one hand, the end of the destocking cycle will bring about a cyclical recovery in the industry; on the other hand, long-term growth opportunities in data centers/AI, energy infrastructure, and robotics and automation will continue to be released. The firm has significantly raised its capital expenditure estimates for major hyperscale companies, expecting growth rates of 79% and 36% for 2025 and 2026, respectively. Additionally, some industrial technology companies covered by the firm (such as Keysight Technologies (KEYS.US), Amphenol (APH.US), and TE Connectivity (TEL.US), all rated "Buy") are typically more defensive during economic downturns, meaning these stocks are expected to show relative advantages in tightening market conditions. In contrast, Goldman Sachs recommends a selective strategy for automotive stocks, as current global automotive production is at historically normal levels, and subsequent sales growth is expected to moderate. Investors should focus on companies with individual driving factors. The firm expects global automotive production and sales to maintain low single-digit growth in 2025 and 2026, with industry sales expectations for this year and next year remaining roughly flat compared to the beginning of the year. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about targets such as General Motors (GM.US), BorgWarner (BWA.US), and Visteon (VC.US). Although interest rate declines will benefit the industry, this will manifest more in product price structure optimization rather than sales growth At the same time, Chinese domestic automakers are accelerating their international expansion, and the business exposure of supply chain companies to these manufacturers will become an important competitive advantage. **Key Themes and Industry Trends** Goldman Sachs also focused on analyzing two major themes: data centers and physical AI. Goldman Sachs stated that the data center and AI infrastructure market will remain strong in 2025. Although the return on investment related to AI from hyperscale companies has been a hot topic in the market, the more specific focus in terms of coverage is the ability of growth companies to achieve substantial profit margins (especially against the backdrop of changes in capital expenditure growth rates and technological iterations such as Rubin, Rubin Ultra, and ASIC chips). In the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) and power and cooling sectors, Goldman Sachs expects the combination of new technologies/products, services, and economies of scale to drive continuous improvement in profit margins for companies including Flex (FLEX.US), Jabil (JBL.US), and Vertiv Holdings (VRT.US); as for the electronic components sector, companies like Amphenol and TE Connectivity will continue to benefit from opportunities to enhance the value of individual device components. In the field of autonomous driving and physical AI, Goldman Sachs indicated that the pace of commercialization of autonomous driving technology has significantly accelerated, with the focus shifting from technical feasibility to scalability and profitability. By 2025, the number of cities operated by leading companies has increased from 3 in the U.S. at the beginning of the year to 8, including international markets outside of China, and is expected to reach about 20 by the end of 2026. The impact on profits for related companies (including autonomous driving service providers, automakers, and parts suppliers) will increasingly become critical. For Tesla (TSLA.US), Goldman Sachs believes that the company has a significant cost advantage in the autonomous taxi market, but the range of software adaptation and mileage will be key to its profitability. In addition, Tesla's layout in the field of physical AI is increasingly leaning towards humanoid robots—Goldman Sachs believes this market has broad prospects, but it will take at least several more years to achieve large-scale deployment. Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot plan aims to start mass production of the third generation in 2026, gradually launching the fourth and fifth generation products in 2027-2028, with a long-term target annual production capacity of 1 billion units ### 相关股票 - [S&P 500 (.SPX.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/.SPX.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [Hedge funds face worst monthly drawdown in over four years, Goldman Sachs tells clients](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281433591.md) - [Two ETF Goliaths Driving the Markets This Month](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281411078.md) - [Industrials Down on Energy-Shock Duration Fears - Industrials Roundup](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281578755.md) - [Comet Industries Land Sale Boosts Momentum at Kamloops Industrial Park](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281279440.md) - [Adani Enterprises’ Subsidiary Sells 50% Stake in Vishakha Industries to Promoter-Group Firm](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281264079.md)