<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/06/10/16/35/mark-804936_960_720.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/06/10/16/35/mark-804936_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>或许没有哪个消费品能比鸡蛋更好地反映美国的可负担性问题。</p>
<p>这款早餐主食的高昂价格甚至可能改变 2024 年的总统选举。在选民投票时，鸡蛋价格自年初以来上涨了 46%。</p>
<p>价格上涨使得 <strong>Cal-Maine Foods</strong>（CALM）的现金流大幅增加。这使得公司能够在 2025 年向股东支付 8.72 美元的股息，收益率达到 10.2%。</p>
<p>但公司能否继续支付如此优厚的收益？</p>
<p>Cal-Maine Foods 是美国最大的鸡蛋生产商，市场份额为 14%。</p>
<p>在截至 5 月的 2025 财年，公司自由现金流如同在炉子上煮了一整天的水煮蛋般爆炸式增长，从前一年的 3.04 亿美元增长了 250%，达到了 10.6 亿美元。</p>
<p>然而，在本财年，自由现金流预计将减半，降至 5.12 亿美元。这不仅低于去年的总额，而且显著低于 2023 年的数字。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://dkwegfj7whlol.cloudfront.net/oxford/wr/20251210_WR-Cal-Maine.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://dkwegfj7whlol.cloudfront.net/oxford/wr/20251210_WR-Cal-Maine.jpg"/></p>
<p>在上一个财年，Cal-Maine 向股东支付了 3.3 亿美元的股息，派息比率仅为 31%。但今年可能会出现问题。华尔街预测股息将达到 7.89 亿美元，这比预计的现金流多出 1.5 倍。</p>
<p>因此，公司的自由现金流正在缩减，今年将无法支持预计的股息支付。</p>
<p>但对公司派息的最大威胁是其股息政策。</p>
<p>Cal-Maine 采用可变股息政策。它将季度利润的三分之一支付给股东作为股息。</p>
<p>按每股收益计算，预计今年利润将下降 60%。</p>
<p>任何采用可变股息政策的公司都会看到其股息的波动。Cal-Maine 的派息在过去两个季度已经被削减，从 5 月的 3.50 美元降至 11 月的 1.38 美元。</p>
<p>现在鸡蛋价格已经回落，Cal-Maine 的收益和现金流也随之下降，公司的股息肯定会受到影响。</p>
<p><strong>股息安全评级：F</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://dkwegfj7whlol.cloudfront.net/oxford/wr/grade-guide.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://dkwegfj7whlol.cloudfront.net/oxford/wr/grade-guide.jpg"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>我朋友的 25 万美元错误</p>
<p>我在房地产投资中的关键以及我下一个购买的地方</p>
<p>这位股息贵族的派息是否面临危险？</p>

Cal-Maine食品

<p>Cal-Maine 食品，作为美国最大的鸡蛋生产商，面临着由于自由现金流和利润下降而难以维持 10.2% 股息收益率的挑战。在 2025 财年，自由现金流激增 250%，达到 10.6 亿美元，但预计今年将减半。该公司的可变股息政策将分红与利润挂钩，已经导致了减息。随着鸡蛋价格和收益的下降，Cal-Maine 的股息可能会进一步减少，获得了 F 级股息安全评级</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/06/10/16/35/mark-804936_960_720.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2015/06/10/16/35/mark-804936_960_720.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>Perhaps no consumer product has captured the affordability problems in America better than eggs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>或许没有哪个消费品能比鸡蛋更好地反映美国的可负担性问题。</p>
</div><p>The breakfast staple’s sky-high prices may have even shifted the presidential election in 2024. By the time voters went to the polls, egg prices were up 46% since the beginning of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这款早餐主食的高昂价格甚至可能改变 2024 年的总统选举。在选民投票时，鸡蛋价格自年初以来上涨了 46%。</p>
</div><p>Rising prices caused <strong>Cal-Maine Foods</strong>‘ (CALM) cash flow to blow the roof off of the hen house. That enabled the company to pay shareholders $8.72 in dividends in 2025, which comes out to a 10.2% yield.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>价格上涨使得 <strong>Cal-Maine Foods</strong>（CALM）的现金流大幅增加。这使得公司能够在 2025 年向股东支付 8.72 美元的股息，收益率达到 10.2%。</p>
</div><p>But can the company continue to pay such an eggcellent yield?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但公司能否继续支付如此优厚的收益？</p>
</div><p>Cal-Maine Foods is the largest producer of eggs in the United States, with a 14% market share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Cal-Maine Foods 是美国最大的鸡蛋生产商，市场份额为 14%。</p>
</div><p>In fiscal 2025, which ended in May, the company’s free cash flow exploded like a hard-boiled egg left on the stove all day, growing 250% from $304 million the prior year to $1.06 billion.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在截至 5 月的 2025 财年，公司自由现金流如同在炉子上煮了一整天的水煮蛋般爆炸式增长，从前一年的 3.04 亿美元增长了 250%，达到了 10.6 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>This fiscal year, however, free cash flow is eggspected to be sliced in half to $512 million. That’s not only lower than last year’s total, but it’s significantly lower than 2023’s number.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，在本财年，自由现金流预计将减半，降至 5.12 亿美元。这不仅低于去年的总额，而且显著低于 2023 年的数字。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://dkwegfj7whlol.cloudfront.net/oxford/wr/20251210_WR-Cal-Maine.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://dkwegfj7whlol.cloudfront.net/oxford/wr/20251210_WR-Cal-Maine.jpg"/></p>
<p>In the last fiscal year, Cal-Maine paid shareholders $330 million in dividends for a low 31% payout ratio. But this year could be a problem. Wall Street forecasts $789 million in dividends, which is 1 1/2 times the expected amount of cash flow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在上一个财年，Cal-Maine 向股东支付了 3.3 亿美元的股息，派息比率仅为 31%。但今年可能会出现问题。华尔街预测股息将达到 7.89 亿美元，这比预计的现金流多出 1.5 倍。</p>
</div><p>So the company’s free cash flow is shrinking, and this year it won’t support the projected dividend payment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，公司的自由现金流正在缩减，今年将无法支持预计的股息支付。</p>
</div><p>But the biggest threat to the company’s payout is its dividend policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对公司派息的最大威胁是其股息政策。</p>
</div><p>Cal-Maine has a variable policy. It pays one-third of its quarterly profits to shareholders in dividends.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Cal-Maine 采用可变股息政策。它将季度利润的三分之一支付给股东作为股息。</p>
</div><p>On an earnings per share basis, profits are forecast to drop 60% this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>按每股收益计算，预计今年利润将下降 60%。</p>
</div><p>Any company with a variable dividend policy is going to see fluctuations in its dividend. Cal-Maine’s payout has already been cut in each of the past two quarters, falling from $3.50 in May to $1.38 in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>任何采用可变股息政策的公司都会看到其股息的波动。Cal-Maine 的派息在过去两个季度已经被削减，从 5 月的 3.50 美元降至 11 月的 1.38 美元。</p>
</div><p>Now that the price of eggs has come down, bringing Cal-Maine’s earnings and cash flow with it, the company’s dividend is sure to follow.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>现在鸡蛋价格已经回落，Cal-Maine 的收益和现金流也随之下降，公司的股息肯定会受到影响。</p>
</div><p><strong>Dividend Safety Rating: F</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>股息安全评级：F</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://dkwegfj7whlol.cloudfront.net/oxford/wr/grade-guide.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://dkwegfj7whlol.cloudfront.net/oxford/wr/grade-guide.jpg"/></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>My Friend’s $250,000 Mistake</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我朋友的 25 万美元错误</p>
</div><p>My Keys To Real Estate Investing And Where I’m Buying Next</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我在房地产投资中的关键以及我下一个购买的地方</p>
</div><p>Is This Dividend Aristocrat’s Payout In Jeopardy?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这位股息贵族的派息是否面临危险？</p>
</div>

Cal-Maine 的 10% 收益率是否即将崩溃？