<p>中欧的货币在周四重新获得动能，逐渐回升至近期高点，此前美国联邦储备委员会发布的前景比一些人预期的更为温和。</p>
<p>该地区的货币在最近几轮交易中承压，但仍接近数月来的高点，原因多样，从更好的经济数据和紧缩的货币政策到美元疲软，均提升了前景。</p>
<p>捷克克朗和匈牙利福林是该地区今年表现最好的货币，因中央银行的利率维持不变，近期在 12 月初分别达到了 26 个月和 22 个月的高点后有所回落。</p>
<p>周四，随着美元在隔夜交易中的下跌，部分投资者转向新兴市场资产，克朗和福林重新回到了更强的立场，这一切发生在美国降息和分析师认为的鸽派基调之后。</p>
<p>&#34;昨日美联储会议意外的鸽派基调使美元处于防守状态，这可能会使捷克克朗今天受益，&#34; CSOB 银行在一份报告中表示。</p>
<p>&#34;因此，在缺乏国内数据的情况下，回落至 24.20 EUR/CZK 的水平是可能的。&#34;</p>
<p>利率维持不变</p>
<p>到格林威治标准时间 1006 时，捷克克朗上涨 0.1%，报 24.235 兑欧元。上个月其交易强势至 24.106。</p>
<p>捷克中央银行行长在自 5 月以来暂停降息周期的情况下，周四重申了稳定利率的信息。</p>
<p>政策制定者雅库布·赛德勒在《银行业》杂志上表示，稳定利率在一段时间内最为可能，而扬·库比切克在彭博社表示，明年加息的押注可能为时已早。</p>
<p>在匈牙利，利率为欧盟最高的 6.50%，福林兑欧元上涨 0.5%，报 381.85，并距离其近期高点仅有 0.4% 的差距。由于本周数据显示 11 月通胀降幅超出预期，福林持续上涨。</p>
<p>&#34;随着美联储降息，一切又回到了我们之前的状态，&#34;一位布达佩斯交易员表示。</p>
<p>匈牙利政府债务管理局（AKK）在周四的拍卖中出售了价值 950 亿福林（约合 2.9088 亿美元）的政府债券，超出了其原本 55 亿福林（约合 1.684 亿）的三系列债券的发行计划。</p>
<p>基准 10 年期债券的平均收益率为 6.91%。</p>
<p>波兰兹罗提略微下跌，报 4.228 兑欧元，分析师认为目前该货币的上限在此水平，此前在 11 月 25 日达到了七个月来的高点 4.218。</p>
<p>尽管波兰中央银行今年一直在降息，但其经济增长良好，帮助支撑了兹罗提。周三，中央银行成员表示货币政策正进入观望阶段，进一步降息的空间有限。</p>
<p>&#34;我们认为货币政策委员会的言辞不够鸽派，应该支持短期掉期和债券利率的上升，&#34; 百万银行表示。</p>
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>中东欧市场快照（格林威治标准时间 1106）</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>货币</td>
<td>最新交易</td>
<td>前收盘</td>
<td>日变化</td>
<td>2025 年变化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克克朗</td>
<td></td>
<td>24.2350</td>
<td>24.2700</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>+4.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>匈牙利福林</td>
<td></td>
<td>381.8500</td>
<td>383.6000</td>
<td>+0.46%</td>
<td>+7.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰兹罗提</td>
<td></td>
<td>4.2280</td>
<td>4.2265</td>
<td>-0.04%</td>
<td>+1.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>罗马尼亚列伊</td>
<td></td>
<td>5.0899</td>
<td>5.0901</td>
<td>+0.00%</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>塞尔维亚第纳尔</td>
<td></td>
<td>117.2800</td>
<td>117.4500</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>-0.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>注：日变化计算自格林威治标准时间 1800</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>前收盘</td>
<td>日变化</td>
<td>2025 年变化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布拉格</td>
<td></td>
<td>2566.17</td>
<td>2563.9100</td>
<td>+0.09%</td>
<td>+45.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布达佩斯</td>
<td></td>
<td>109398.36</td>
<td>108571.16</td>
<td>+0.76%</td>
<td>+37.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>华沙</td>
<td></td>
<td>3018.96</td>
<td>3021.37</td>
<td>-0.08%</td>
<td>+37.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布加勒斯特</td>
<td></td>
<td>23781.48</td>
<td>23909.91</td>
<td>-0.54%</td>
<td>+42.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>债券</td>
<td>收益率（买入）</td>
<td>收益率变化</td>
<td>与德国国债的利差</td>
<td>利差日变化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和国 2 年期</td>
<td>(CZ2YT=RR)</td>
<td>3.5640</td>
<td>0.0610</td>
<td>+139 个基点</td>
<td>+7 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和国 5 年期</td>
<td>(CZ5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.1380</td>
<td>-0.0050</td>
<td>+166 个基点</td>
<td>+0 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和国 10 年期</td>
<td>(CZ10YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6520</td>
<td>-0.0120</td>
<td>+179 个基点</td>
<td>-1 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰 2 年期</td>
<td>(PL2YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.0580</td>
<td>0.0110</td>
<td>+189 个基点</td>
<td>+2 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰 5 年期</td>
<td>(PL5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6190</td>
<td>-0.0160</td>
<td>+214 个基点</td>
<td>-1 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰 10 年期</td>
<td>(PL10YT=RR)</td>
<td>5.2670</td>
<td>-0.0080</td>
<td>+241 个基点</td>
<td>-1 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>远期利率协议</td>
<td>3x6</td>
<td>6x9</td>
<td>9x12</td>
<td>3 个月银行间</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和国</td>
<td>(CZKFRA), (PRIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.64</td>
<td>3.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰</td>
<td>(PLNFRA), (WIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.76</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.58</td>
<td>4.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>注：FRA 报价为要价</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>

<p>中欧的货币，包括匈牙利福林和捷克克朗，在美国联邦储备委员会的鸽派展望后走强。捷克克朗上涨 0.1%，至每欧元 24.235，而匈牙利福林上涨 0.5%，至每欧元 381.85。匈牙利的债券拍卖筹集了 950 亿福林。波兰兹罗提略有下降，进一步降息的空间有限。布拉格和布达佩斯的股市上涨，而华沙和布加勒斯特则出现下跌。该地区的债券收益率各不相同</p>

<p>Central Europe's currencies regained momentum on Thursday, inching back toward recent highs after the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a less hawkish outlook than some had expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中欧的货币在周四重新获得动能，逐渐回升至近期高点，此前美国联邦储备委员会发布的前景比一些人预期的更为温和。</p>
</div><p>The region's currencies have been under pressure in recent sessions, but remain close to multi-month highs, with a mix of reasons, from better economic data and tight monetary policy to dollar weakness, keeping prospects up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该地区的货币在最近几轮交易中承压，但仍接近数月来的高点，原因多样，从更好的经济数据和紧缩的货币政策到美元疲软，均提升了前景。</p>
</div><p>The crown and forint — the region's best performers this year as central bank interest rates have been put on hold — had retreated recently after hitting 26- and 22-month highs, respectively, early in December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>捷克克朗和匈牙利福林是该地区今年表现最好的货币，因中央银行的利率维持不变，近期在 12 月初分别达到了 26 个月和 22 个月的高点后有所回落。</p>
</div><p>They moved back on stronger footing on Thursday as dollar losses overnight pushed some investors into emerging market assets, following a U.S. rate cut and what analysts view as a dovish tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>周四，随着美元在隔夜交易中的下跌，部分投资者转向新兴市场资产，克朗和福林重新回到了更强的立场，这一切发生在美国降息和分析师认为的鸽派基调之后。</p>
</div><p>&#34;The surprisingly dovish tone of yesterday's Fed meeting sent the dollar on the defensive, which could benefit the Czech crown today,&#34; bank CSOB said in a note.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;昨日美联储会议意外的鸽派基调使美元处于防守状态，这可能会使捷克克朗今天受益，&#34; CSOB 银行在一份报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A return below the level of 24.20 EUR/CZK is therefore likely in the absence of domestic figures.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;因此，在缺乏国内数据的情况下，回落至 24.20 EUR/CZK 的水平是可能的。&#34;</p>
</div><p>INTEREST RATES ON HOLD</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率维持不变</p>
</div><p>The crown  had risen 0.1% to 24.235 to the euro by 1006 GMT. It had traded as strong as 24.106 last month.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>到格林威治标准时间 1006 时，捷克克朗上涨 0.1%，报 24.235 兑欧元。上个月其交易强势至 24.106。</p>
</div><p>Czech central bankers, who have paused a cutting cycle since last reducing rates in May, reinforced messages of stable rates on Thursday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>捷克中央银行行长在自 5 月以来暂停降息周期的情况下，周四重申了稳定利率的信息。</p>
</div><p>Policymaker Jakub Seidler told Bankovnictvi magazine that stable rates were most likely for some time, while Jan Kubicek told Bloomberg that bets on a hike next year might be premature.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>政策制定者雅库布·赛德勒在《银行业》杂志上表示，稳定利率在一段时间内最为可能，而扬·库比切克在彭博社表示，明年加息的押注可能为时已早。</p>
</div><p>In Hungary, where interest rates are at a EU-joint-highest 6.50%, the forint  gained half a percent to 381.85 to the euro, and was within 0.4% of its more recent high. It continued gains since data this week showed inflation eased more than expected in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在匈牙利，利率为欧盟最高的 6.50%，福林兑欧元上涨 0.5%，报 381.85，并距离其近期高点仅有 0.4% 的差距。由于本周数据显示 11 月通胀降幅超出预期，福林持续上涨。</p>
</div><p>&#34;With the Fed rate cut everything went back to where we were before,&#34; a Budapest trader said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;随着美联储降息，一切又回到了我们之前的状态，&#34;一位布达佩斯交易员表示。</p>
</div><p>Hungary's Government Debt Management Agency (AKK) sold 95 billion forints ($290.88 million) worth of government bonds at an auction on Thursday, raising its original offer of three series of bonds with a total value of 55 billion forints ($168.40 million).</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>匈牙利政府债务管理局（AKK）在周四的拍卖中出售了价值 950 亿福林（约合 2.9088 亿美元）的政府债券，超出了其原本 55 亿福林（约合 1.684 亿）的三系列债券的发行计划。</p>
</div><p>The average yield on the benchmark 10-year-bond was 6.91%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基准 10 年期债券的平均收益率为 6.91%。</p>
</div><p>The Polish zloty  trailed, down just a touch at 4.228 per euro around where analysts see a ceiling at the moment after it hit a seven-month high of 4.218 on November 25.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>波兰兹罗提略微下跌，报 4.228 兑欧元，分析师认为目前该货币的上限在此水平，此前在 11 月 25 日达到了七个月来的高点 4.218。</p>
</div><p>While the Polish central bank has been cutting rates this year, its economy has gained, helping buoy the zloty. On Wednesday, central bank members said monetary policy is moving into a wait-and-see phase and scope for further interest rate cuts was limited.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管波兰中央银行今年一直在降息，但其经济增长良好，帮助支撑了兹罗提。周三，中央银行成员表示货币政策正进入观望阶段，进一步降息的空间有限。</p>
</div><p>&#34;We maintain that the Monetary Policy Council's less-than-dovish rhetoric should support an increase in short-term swap and bond rates,&#34; Bank Millennium said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;我们认为货币政策委员会的言辞不够鸽派，应该支持短期掉期和债券利率的上升，&#34; 百万银行表示。</p>
</div><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>CEE MARKETS SNAPSHOT AT 1106 CET</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CURRENCIES</td>
<td>Latest trade</td>
<td>Previous close</td>
<td>Daily change</td>
<td>Change in 2025</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech crown</td>
<td></td>
<td>24.2350</td>
<td>24.2700</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>+4.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hungary forint</td>
<td></td>
<td>381.8500</td>
<td>383.6000</td>
<td>+0.46%</td>
<td>+7.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Polish zloty</td>
<td></td>
<td>4.2280</td>
<td>4.2265</td>
<td>-0.04%</td>
<td>+1.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Romanian leu</td>
<td></td>
<td>5.0899</td>
<td>5.0901</td>
<td>+0.00%</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Serbian dinar</td>
<td></td>
<td>117.2800</td>
<td>117.4500</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>-0.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Note: daily change calculated from 1800 CET</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>STOCKS</td>
<td>Latest</td>
<td>Previous close</td>
<td>Daily change</td>
<td>Change in 2025</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Prague</td>
<td></td>
<td>2566.17</td>
<td>2563.9100</td>
<td>+0.09%</td>
<td>+45.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Budapest</td>
<td></td>
<td>109398.36</td>
<td>108571.16</td>
<td>+0.76%</td>
<td>+37.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Warsaw</td>
<td></td>
<td>3018.96</td>
<td>3021.37</td>
<td>-0.08%</td>
<td>+37.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bucharest</td>
<td></td>
<td>23781.48</td>
<td>23909.91</td>
<td>-0.54%</td>
<td>+42.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>BONDS</td>
<td>Yield (bid)</td>
<td>Yield change</td>
<td>Spread vs Bund</td>
<td>Daily change in spread</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech Rep 2-year</td>
<td>(CZ2YT=RR)</td>
<td>3.5640</td>
<td>0.0610</td>
<td>+139bps</td>
<td>+7bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech Rep 5-year</td>
<td>(CZ5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.1380</td>
<td>-0.0050</td>
<td>+166bps</td>
<td>+0bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech Rep 10-year</td>
<td>(CZ10YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6520</td>
<td>-0.0120</td>
<td>+179bps</td>
<td>-1bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Poland 2-year</td>
<td>(PL2YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.0580</td>
<td>0.0110</td>
<td>+189bps</td>
<td>+2bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Poland 5-year</td>
<td>(PL5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6190</td>
<td>-0.0160</td>
<td>+214bps</td>
<td>-1bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Poland 10-year</td>
<td>(PL10YT=RR)</td>
<td>5.2670</td>
<td>-0.0080</td>
<td>+241bps</td>
<td>-1bps</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS</td>
<td>3x6</td>
<td>6x9</td>
<td>9x12</td>
<td>3M interbank</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Czech Rep</td>
<td>(CZKFRA), (PRIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.64</td>
<td>3.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Poland</td>
<td>(PLNFRA), (WIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.76</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.58</td>
<td>4.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="lb-trans"><table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
<th></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>中东欧市场快照（格林威治标准时间 1106）</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>货币</td>
<td>最新交易</td>
<td>前收盘</td>
<td>日变化</td>
<td>2025 年变化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克克朗</td>
<td></td>
<td>24.2350</td>
<td>24.2700</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>+4.02%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>匈牙利福林</td>
<td></td>
<td>381.8500</td>
<td>383.6000</td>
<td>+0.46%</td>
<td>+7.75%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰兹罗提</td>
<td></td>
<td>4.2280</td>
<td>4.2265</td>
<td>-0.04%</td>
<td>+1.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>罗马尼亚列伊</td>
<td></td>
<td>5.0899</td>
<td>5.0901</td>
<td>+0.00%</td>
<td>-2.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>塞尔维亚第纳尔</td>
<td></td>
<td>117.2800</td>
<td>117.4500</td>
<td>+0.14%</td>
<td>-0.28%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>注：日变化计算自格林威治标准时间 1800</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>股票</td>
<td>最新</td>
<td>前收盘</td>
<td>日变化</td>
<td>2025 年变化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布拉格</td>
<td></td>
<td>2566.17</td>
<td>2563.9100</td>
<td>+0.09%</td>
<td>+45.79%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布达佩斯</td>
<td></td>
<td>109398.36</td>
<td>108571.16</td>
<td>+0.76%</td>
<td>+37.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>华沙</td>
<td></td>
<td>3018.96</td>
<td>3021.37</td>
<td>-0.08%</td>
<td>+37.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>布加勒斯特</td>
<td></td>
<td>23781.48</td>
<td>23909.91</td>
<td>-0.54%</td>
<td>+42.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>债券</td>
<td>收益率（买入）</td>
<td>收益率变化</td>
<td>与德国国债的利差</td>
<td>利差日变化</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和国 2 年期</td>
<td>(CZ2YT=RR)</td>
<td>3.5640</td>
<td>0.0610</td>
<td>+139 个基点</td>
<td>+7 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和国 5 年期</td>
<td>(CZ5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.1380</td>
<td>-0.0050</td>
<td>+166 个基点</td>
<td>+0 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和国 10 年期</td>
<td>(CZ10YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6520</td>
<td>-0.0120</td>
<td>+179 个基点</td>
<td>-1 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰 2 年期</td>
<td>(PL2YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.0580</td>
<td>0.0110</td>
<td>+189 个基点</td>
<td>+2 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰 5 年期</td>
<td>(PL5YT=RR)</td>
<td>4.6190</td>
<td>-0.0160</td>
<td>+214 个基点</td>
<td>-1 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰 10 年期</td>
<td>(PL10YT=RR)</td>
<td>5.2670</td>
<td>-0.0080</td>
<td>+241 个基点</td>
<td>-1 个基点</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>远期利率协议</td>
<td>3x6</td>
<td>6x9</td>
<td>9x12</td>
<td>3 个月银行间</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>捷克共和国</td>
<td>(CZKFRA), (PRIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.59</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.64</td>
<td>3.54</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>波兰</td>
<td>(PLNFRA), (WIBOR=)</td>
<td>3.76</td>
<td>3.61</td>
<td>3.58</td>
<td>4.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>注：FRA 报价为要价</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</div>

福林领涨，中欧货币走向更坚实的基础