<p>房地美报告称，30 年期固定利率抵押贷款平均利率从上周的 6.19% 上升至 6.22%。自 2022 年 10 月以来的近期周期低点为 6.09%。</p>
<h3><strong>当前市场快照</strong></h3>
<p>房地产市场继续在波动的利率和顽固的价格之间导航。尽管美联储昨天将利率下调了 25 个基点，但本周抵押贷款利率却朝相反方向移动，突显了美联储政策与长期债券收益率之间常常存在的脱节。</p>
<ul>
<li>抵押贷款利率：根据房地美的数据，本周 30 年期固定抵押贷款平均利率上升至 6.22%，高于上周的 6.19%。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>库存水平：</strong> 房屋供应正在缓慢恢复，但仍约 <strong>低于疫情前水平的 13%</strong>。我们看到地区差异，南部和西部的库存激增（在丹佛和奥斯丁等城市超过疫情前的正常水平），而东北部则仍然紧张。</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong>价格趋势：</strong> 全国中位挂牌价格同比基本持平，约为 <strong>424,000 美元</strong>。然而，约 <strong>20% 的挂牌</strong> 正在降价，这表明卖家不得不调整预期以满足紧张的买家。</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>可负担性危机</strong></h3>
<p>可负担性仍然是潜在买家的主要阻力。尽管美联储正在放松政策，但接近历史高点的房价和超过 6% 的抵押贷款利率使得月供保持在高位。</p>
<ul>
<li>拖欠前景：最近的信用报告显示，随着&#34;可负担性挤压&#34;考验借款人的韧性，抵押贷款拖欠率在 2026 年之前可能会小幅上升。</li>
<li>买家行为：Zillow 的一份新报告指出，许多买家在急于确保购房时跳过了&#34;利率购物&#34;阶段，这可能使他们在波动的利率环境中损失了可观的节省。</li>
</ul>
<h3><strong>鲍威尔主席谈住房：&#34;锁定&#34;效应与供应</strong></h3>
<p>在昨天的会议后新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔直接谈到了房地产市场，提供了一个令人警醒的观点，解释了为什么较低的美联储利率没有立即解决该领域的问题。</p>
<p><strong>1. &#34;锁定&#34;效应抑制供应</strong> 鲍威尔强调，由于数百万美国人持有 2% 至 3% 利率的抵押贷款，房地产市场实际上处于&#34;冻结&#34;状态。即使美联储降息，目前的市场利率（接近 6%）也太高，无法吸引这些业主出售和搬迁，从而使转售库存人造地保持在低位。</p>
<p><strong>2. 通胀与住房服务</strong> 鲍威尔指出，尽管美联储在通胀方面取得了一定进展，但 <strong>住房服务通胀</strong> 仍然顽固。他将当前的政策立场描述为&#34;适度限制性&#34;，这有助于冷却经济，但他承认，仅靠货币政策无法解决结构性住房供应不足的问题。</p>
<p><strong>3. 关税影响</strong> 在谈到最近的通胀数据时，鲍威尔将当前的&#34;热度&#34;归因于关税，称其为&#34;一次性价格上涨&#34;。然而，他警告说，如果这些政策变化导致建筑材料或劳动力短缺（通过移民变化）成本上升，可能会进一步加剧住房供应短缺。</p>
<h3><strong>2026 年展望</strong></h3>
<p>未来住房的道路在很大程度上取决于国债收益率与美联储政策之间的相互作用。尽管美联储发出了&#34;鸽派但依赖数据&#34;的信号，但主导抵押贷款利率的债券市场对长期通胀风险仍持谨慎态度。现在，买家应预计利率将保持在 <strong>6% 的范围内</strong>，随着收入增长逐渐追赶房价，可负担性只会逐步改善。</p>

房地美

<p>房地美报告称，30 年期固定抵押贷款利率上升至 6.22%。尽管美联储降息，抵押贷款利率却上升，突显出与美联储政策之间的脱节。住房库存正在恢复，但仍低于疫情前的水平，且存在地区差异。可负担性是一个主要问题，高房价和抵押贷款利率使得购房困难。美联储主席鲍威尔提到 “锁定” 效应和关税对住房供应的影响。2026 年的前景取决于国债收益率和美联储政策，预计利率将保持在 6% 左右</p>

<p>Freddie Mac is reporting that the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage average rate rose to 6.22% from 6.19% in the prior week. The recent cycle lows going back to October 2022 is at 6.09%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地美报告称，30 年期固定利率抵押贷款平均利率从上周的 6.19% 上升至 6.22%。自 2022 年 10 月以来的近期周期低点为 6.09%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Current Market Snapshot</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>当前市场快照</strong></h3>
</div><p>The housing market continues to navigate a complex environment of fluctuating rates and sticky prices. While the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points yesterday, mortgage rates have moved in the opposite direction this week, highlighting the disconnect that often exists between Fed policy and long-term bond yields.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>房地产市场继续在波动的利率和顽固的价格之间导航。尽管美联储昨天将利率下调了 25 个基点，但本周抵押贷款利率却朝相反方向移动，突显了美联储政策与长期债券收益率之间常常存在的脱节。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Mortgage Rates: According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.22% this week, up from 6.19% the previous week.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>抵押贷款利率：根据房地美的数据，本周 30 年期固定抵押贷款平均利率上升至 6.22%，高于上周的 6.19%。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Inventory Levels:</strong> Housing supply is slowly recovering but remains approximately <strong>13% below pre-pandemic levels</strong>. We are seeing regional disparities, with inventory surging in the South and West (rising above pre-pandemic norms in cities like Denver and Austin) while remaining tight in the Northeast.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>库存水平：</strong> 房屋供应正在缓慢恢复，但仍约 <strong>低于疫情前水平的 13%</strong>。我们看到地区差异，南部和西部的库存激增（在丹佛和奥斯丁等城市超过疫情前的正常水平），而东北部则仍然紧张。</li>
</ul>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>Price Trends:</strong> National median list prices are largely flat year-over-year at approximately <strong>$424,000</strong>. However, about <strong>20% of listings</strong> are seeing price cuts, suggesting sellers are having to adjust expectations to meet stretched buyers.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>价格趋势：</strong> 全国中位挂牌价格同比基本持平，约为 <strong>424,000 美元</strong>。然而，约 <strong>20% 的挂牌</strong> 正在降价，这表明卖家不得不调整预期以满足紧张的买家。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3><strong>The Affordability Crunch</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>可负担性危机</strong></h3>
</div><p>Affordability remains the primary headwind for prospective buyers. Despite the Fed's easing cycle, the combination of home prices near record highs and mortgage rates above 6% keeps monthly payments elevated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>可负担性仍然是潜在买家的主要阻力。尽管美联储正在放松政策，但接近历史高点的房价和超过 6% 的抵押贷款利率使得月供保持在高位。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Delinquencies Outlook: Recent credit reports suggest a modest rise in mortgage delinquencies heading into 2026 as the &#34;affordability squeeze&#34; tests borrower resilience.</li>
<li>Buyer Behavior: A new report from Zillow indicates that many buyers are skipping the &#34;rate shopping&#34; phase in a rush to secure homes, potentially costing them significant savings in a volatile rate environment.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>拖欠前景：最近的信用报告显示，随着&#34;可负担性挤压&#34;考验借款人的韧性，抵押贷款拖欠率在 2026 年之前可能会小幅上升。</li>
<li>买家行为：Zillow 的一份新报告指出，许多买家在急于确保购房时跳过了&#34;利率购物&#34;阶段，这可能使他们在波动的利率环境中损失了可观的节省。</li>
</ul>
</div><h3><strong>Chair Powell on Housing: The &#34;Lock-In&#34; Effect and Supply</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>鲍威尔主席谈住房：&#34;锁定&#34;效应与供应</strong></h3>
</div><p>During yesterday’s post-meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed the housing market directly, offering a sobering view on why lower Fed rates haven't immediately fixed the sector's issues.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在昨天的会议后新闻发布会上，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔直接谈到了房地产市场，提供了一个令人警醒的观点，解释了为什么较低的美联储利率没有立即解决该领域的问题。</p>
</div><p><strong>1. The &#34;Lock-In&#34; Effect is Stifling Supply</strong> Powell emphasized that the housing market is effectively &#34;frozen&#34; because millions of Americans are holding onto mortgages with rates between 2% and 3%. Even as the Fed cuts rates, current market rates (near 6%) are too high to entice these owners to sell and move, keeping resale inventory artificially low.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>1. &#34;锁定&#34;效应抑制供应</strong> 鲍威尔强调，由于数百万美国人持有 2% 至 3% 利率的抵押贷款，房地产市场实际上处于&#34;冻结&#34;状态。即使美联储降息，目前的市场利率（接近 6%）也太高，无法吸引这些业主出售和搬迁，从而使转售库存人造地保持在低位。</p>
</div><p><strong>2. Inflation &amp; Housing Services</strong> Powell noted that while the Fed has made progress on inflation, <strong>housing services inflation</strong> remains sticky. He described the current policy stance as &#34;modestly restrictive,&#34; which is helping to cool the economy, but he acknowledged that monetary policy alone cannot fix structural housing supply deficits.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2. 通胀与住房服务</strong> 鲍威尔指出，尽管美联储在通胀方面取得了一定进展，但 <strong>住房服务通胀</strong> 仍然顽固。他将当前的政策立场描述为&#34;适度限制性&#34;，这有助于冷却经济，但他承认，仅靠货币政策无法解决结构性住房供应不足的问题。</p>
</div><p><strong>3. The Tariff Impact</strong> When addressing recent inflation data, Powell attributed much of the current &#34;heat&#34; to tariffs, describing them as a &#34;one-time price increase.&#34; However, he warned that if these policy shifts lead to higher costs for construction materials or labor shortages (via immigration changes), it could exacerbate the housing supply shortage further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>3. 关税影响</strong> 在谈到最近的通胀数据时，鲍威尔将当前的&#34;热度&#34;归因于关税，称其为&#34;一次性价格上涨&#34;。然而，他警告说，如果这些政策变化导致建筑材料或劳动力短缺（通过移民变化）成本上升，可能会进一步加剧住房供应短缺。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Outlook for 2026</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>2026 年展望</strong></h3>
</div><p>The path forward for housing depends heavily on the interplay between Treasury yields and Fed policy. While the Fed is signaling a &#34;dovish but data-dependent&#34; path, the bond market—which dictates mortgage rates—remains wary of long-term inflation risks. For now, buyers should expect rates to remain in the <strong>6% range</strong>, with affordability improving only gradually as income growth catches up to home prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>未来住房的道路在很大程度上取决于国债收益率与美联储政策之间的相互作用。尽管美联储发出了&#34;鸽派但依赖数据&#34;的信号，但主导抵押贷款利率的债券市场对长期通胀风险仍持谨慎态度。现在，买家应预计利率将保持在 <strong>6% 的范围内</strong>，随着收入增长逐渐追赶房价，可负担性只会逐步改善。</p>
</div>

住房市场更新：利率上升，购房负担能力依然紧张