<p>CF Industries Holdings (CF) 最近一直在下滑，过去三个月股价下跌约 12%，过去一年下跌约 13%，尽管长期回报仍然稳健。</p>
<p>查看我们对 CF Industries Holdings 的最新分析。</p>
<p>最近的下滑，包括 30 天内股价回报为 -8.2% 和年初至今的双位数疲软，表明短期内动能减弱。尽管五年总股东回报超过 100% 仍然凸显了可观的长期财富创造。</p>
<p>如果 CF Industries 的价格走势让你重新评估你的选择，这可能是一个探索高内部持股的快速增长股票作为潜在下一波候选者的好时机。</p>
<p>在盈利承压但股价已从高点回落并低于平均分析师目标价的情况下，关键问题很简单：CF Industries 是否被低估，还是市场已经在定价其未来增长？</p>
<h2>最受欢迎的叙述：17.4% 被低估</h2>
<p>与 CF Industries 最近收盘价 $76.09 相比，最受关注的叙述认为公允价值接近 $92，意味着如果其预测成立，将有显著的上行空间。</p>
<p><em>全球氮气供需平衡紧张，目前受到长期供应侧约束和地缘政治干扰的影响，面临风险，因为来自中国和其他地区的新产能以及政策变化可能导致产能过剩。这可能在未来几年对氮气定价、收入和净利润率施加下行压力。虽然碳捕集和蓝色/绿色氨项目预计将通过税收抵免和产品溢价带来增量 EBITDA，但对政府激励措施和早期清洁氨市场的高度依赖引入了长期的监管和采纳风险，这可能威胁到未来现金流和利润率的稳定性。</em></p>
<p>阅读完整叙述。</p>
<p>想看看平坦的收入、较低的利润率和更高的未来盈利倍数如何仍然带来上行空间吗？完整叙述揭示了其中的数学。</p>
<p><strong>结果：公允价值为 $92.17（被低估）</strong></p>
<p>完整阅读叙述，了解预测背后的原因。</p>
<p>然而，持续的全球食品需求和 CF 的低成本、低碳领导地位可能会使肥料定价和利润率维持在比当前谨慎假设更长的时间内。</p>
<p>了解 CF Industries Holdings 叙述的关键风险。</p>
<h2>另一种价值视角</h2>
<p>虽然叙述指向接近 $92 的公允价值，但我们的 SWS DCF 模型描绘了一个更冷静的画面，CF 的交易价格高于其估计的内在价值。这个差距暗示市场可能已经在考虑比现金流支持的更多增长。你相信哪个故事？</p>
<p>深入了解 SWS DCF 模型如何得出其公允价值。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/913cd070-0ee6-4675-b233-fdb7f9bc662d/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/913cd070-0ee6-4675-b233-fdb7f9bc662d/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 CF 折现现金流</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 每天对全球每只股票进行折现现金流（DCF）分析（例如查看 CF Industries Holdings）。我们展示了完整的计算过程。你可以在你的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪结果，并在变化时收到提醒，或者使用我们的股票筛选器发现 909 只基于现金流的被低估股票。如果你保存一个筛选器，我们甚至会在新公司匹配时提醒你——这样你就不会错过潜在机会。</p>
<h2>自建 CF Industries Holdings 叙述</h2>
<p>如果你对 CF 的故事有不同看法或想自己深入数字，你可以在几分钟内构建一个自定义叙述，按照你的方式进行。</p>
<p>进行 CF Industries Holdings 研究的一个很好的起点是我们的分析，强调 5 个关键回报和 1 个重要警示信号，这可能会影响你的投资决策。</p>
<h2>寻找更多投资想法？</h2>
<p>在你继续之前，通过使用我们强大的筛选器锁定你的下一个机会，发现针对你的策略量身定制的聚焦、数据驱动的股票想法。</p>
<ul>
<li>通过这些 25 只可能改变整个行业的 AI 小盘股，捕捉快速市场变化。</li>
<li>通过关注这些 12 只收益率 &gt; 3% 的股息股票，增强你投资组合的收入流，旨在平衡收益与基本质量。</li>
<li>通过扫描这些 81 只塑造数字资产和区块链基础设施演变的加密货币和区块链股票，提前布局新兴主题。</li>
</ul>
<p><em>这篇文章由 Simply Wall St 撰写，性质一般。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也不考虑你的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为你提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>

CF实业

<p>CF Industries 的股票在过去 3 个月下跌了 12%，在过去一年下跌了 13%，这促使人们重新评估其估值。尽管长期回报良好，但该股票被认为低估了 17.4%，合理价值接近 92 美元，而其最后收盘价为 76.09 美元。市场可能已经在定价未来的增长，同时面临全球氮供应变化和对政府激励措施的依赖风险。分析师建议探索其他内部持股比例高的快速增长股票</p>

<p>CF Industries Holdings (CF) has been grinding lower recently, with the stock down around 12 % over the past 3 months and about 13 % over the past year, despite still solid long term returns.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CF Industries Holdings (CF) 最近一直在下滑，过去三个月股价下跌约 12%，过去一年下跌约 13%，尽管长期回报仍然稳健。</p>
</div><p>See our latest analysis for CF Industries Holdings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看我们对 CF Industries Holdings 的最新分析。</p>
</div><p>That recent slide, including an 8.2 % 30 day share price return and double digit year to date weakness, signals fading momentum in the near term. Even though the five year total shareholder return above 100 % still underscores substantial long run wealth creation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最近的下滑，包括 30 天内股价回报为 -8.2% 和年初至今的双位数疲软，表明短期内动能减弱。尽管五年总股东回报超过 100% 仍然凸显了可观的长期财富创造。</p>
</div><p>If CF Industries price action has you reassessing your options, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential next wave candidates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果 CF Industries 的价格走势让你重新评估你的选择，这可能是一个探索高内部持股的快速增长股票作为潜在下一波候选者的好时机。</p>
</div><p>With earnings under pressure but the share price already off its highs and trading below the average analyst target, the key question now is simple: is CF Industries undervalued or is the market already pricing in its future growth?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在盈利承压但股价已从高点回落并低于平均分析师目标价的情况下，关键问题很简单：CF Industries 是否被低估，还是市场已经在定价其未来增长？</p>
</div><h2>Most Popular Narrative: 17.4% Undervalued</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>最受欢迎的叙述：17.4% 被低估</h2>
</div><p>Compared to CF Industries last close of $76.09, the most followed narrative sees fair value closer to $92, implying meaningful upside if its projections hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与 CF Industries 最近收盘价 $76.09 相比，最受关注的叙述认为公允价值接近 $92，意味着如果其预测成立，将有显著的上行空间。</p>
</div><p><em>The tight global nitrogen supply demand balance, currently driven by chronic supply side constraints and geopolitical disruptions, is at risk as new capacity from China and other regions and policy changes could lead to overcapacity. This could put downward pressure on nitrogen pricing, revenue, and net margins in the coming years. While carbon capture and blue/green ammonia projects are expected to deliver incremental EBITDA from tax credits and product premiums, heavy reliance on government incentives and early stage clean ammonia markets introduces long term regulatory and adoption risks, which may threaten the stability of projected future cash flows and margins.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>全球氮气供需平衡紧张，目前受到长期供应侧约束和地缘政治干扰的影响，面临风险，因为来自中国和其他地区的新产能以及政策变化可能导致产能过剩。这可能在未来几年对氮气定价、收入和净利润率施加下行压力。虽然碳捕集和蓝色/绿色氨项目预计将通过税收抵免和产品溢价带来增量 EBITDA，但对政府激励措施和早期清洁氨市场的高度依赖引入了长期的监管和采纳风险，这可能威胁到未来现金流和利润率的稳定性。</em></p>
</div><p>Read the complete narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读完整叙述。</p>
</div><p>Want to see how flat revenues, slimmer margins, and a higher future earnings multiple still add up to upside from here? The full narrative reveals the math.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>想看看平坦的收入、较低的利润率和更高的未来盈利倍数如何仍然带来上行空间吗？完整叙述揭示了其中的数学。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: Fair Value of $92.17 (UNDERVALUED)</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：公允价值为 $92.17（被低估）</strong></p>
</div><p>Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>完整阅读叙述，了解预测背后的原因。</p>
</div><p>However, persistent global food demand and CF’s low cost, low carbon leadership could sustain fertilizer pricing and margins for longer than current cautious assumptions suggest.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，持续的全球食品需求和 CF 的低成本、低碳领导地位可能会使肥料定价和利润率维持在比当前谨慎假设更长的时间内。</p>
</div><p>Find out about the key risks to this CF Industries Holdings narrative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解 CF Industries Holdings 叙述的关键风险。</p>
</div><h2>Another Lens on Value</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>另一种价值视角</h2>
</div><p>While the narrative points to a fair value near $92, our SWS DCF model paints a cooler picture, with CF trading above its estimated intrinsic value. That gap hints the market may already be baking in more growth than the cash flows support. Which story do you trust?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然叙述指向接近 $92 的公允价值，但我们的 SWS DCF 模型描绘了一个更冷静的画面，CF 的交易价格高于其估计的内在价值。这个差距暗示市场可能已经在考虑比现金流支持的更多增长。你相信哪个故事？</p>
</div><p>Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>深入了解 SWS DCF 模型如何得出其公允价值。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/913cd070-0ee6-4675-b233-fdb7f9bc662d/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/913cd070-0ee6-4675-b233-fdb7f9bc662d/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>CF Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 CF 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out CF Industries Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 909 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 每天对全球每只股票进行折现现金流（DCF）分析（例如查看 CF Industries Holdings）。我们展示了完整的计算过程。你可以在你的观察列表或投资组合中跟踪结果，并在变化时收到提醒，或者使用我们的股票筛选器发现 909 只基于现金流的被低估股票。如果你保存一个筛选器，我们甚至会在新公司匹配时提醒你——这样你就不会错过潜在机会。</p>
</div><h2>Build Your Own CF Industries Holdings Narrative</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>自建 CF Industries Holdings 叙述</h2>
</div><p>If you see CF’s story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom narrative in just minutes, Do it your way.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果你对 CF 的故事有不同看法或想自己深入数字，你可以在几分钟内构建一个自定义叙述，按照你的方式进行。</p>
</div><p>A great starting point for your CF Industries Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>进行 CF Industries Holdings 研究的一个很好的起点是我们的分析，强调 5 个关键回报和 1 个重要警示信号，这可能会影响你的投资决策。</p>
</div><h2>Looking for more investment ideas?</h2>
<div class="lb-trans"><h2>寻找更多投资想法？</h2>
</div><p>Before you move on, lock in your next opportunities by using our powerful screeners to uncover focused, data driven stock ideas tailored to your strategy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在你继续之前，通过使用我们强大的筛选器锁定你的下一个机会，发现针对你的策略量身定制的聚焦、数据驱动的股票想法。</p>
</div><ul>
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</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>通过这些 25 只可能改变整个行业的 AI 小盘股，捕捉快速市场变化。</li>
<li>通过关注这些 12 只收益率 &gt; 3% 的股息股票，增强你投资组合的收入流，旨在平衡收益与基本质量。</li>
<li>通过扫描这些 81 只塑造数字资产和区块链基础设施演变的加密货币和区块链股票，提前布局新兴主题。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇文章由 Simply Wall St 撰写，性质一般。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，仅使用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也不考虑你的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为你提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中没有持仓。</em></p>
</div>

CF 实业（CF）：在近期股价回调后重新审视其估值