--- title: "Why is silver the \"new gold\"? Because the world has gone crazier" type: "News" locale: "zh-CN" url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269475433.md" description: "The German Ministry of Finance has canceled the issuance plan for commemorative silver coins due to the surge in silver prices to $53 per ounce, exceeding the face value of the coins. After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, silver prices continued to rise to $63.86 per ounce, nearly double that of the same period last year. The increase in silver prices is mainly due to rising industrial demand and supply-demand imbalances, and the designation of silver as a strategic commodity by the United States has also exacerbated this phenomenon" datetime: "2025-12-12T06:00:12.000Z" locales: - [zh-CN](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269475433.md) - [en](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269475433.md) - [zh-HK](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269475433.md) --- > 支持的语言: [English](https://longbridge.com/en/news/269475433.md) | [繁體中文](https://longbridge.com/zh-HK/news/269475433.md) # Why is silver the "new gold"? Because the world has gone crazier A few months ago, the German Ministry of Finance took a striking measure: it canceled the long-planned Christmas issuance of the "Three Wise Men" commemorative silver coin, as well as another commemorative silver medal celebrating the monorail. What was the reason? As explained by the German Ministry of Finance, the price of silver soared to $53 per ounce in October, leading to the conclusion that "the material value of Germany's €20 and €25 denomination silver coins has now significantly exceeded their respective face values." In simple terms: issuing these coins no longer makes economic sense. Since then, the price of silver has continued to soar. In fact, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, silver prices reached $63.86 per ounce on Wednesday—almost double the level of the same time last year. This easily surpasses gold's nearly 60% increase this year—despite gold having attracted all the attention. Indeed, in trading terms, the rise in silver prices has been so "parabolic" that similar surges have only occurred twice in recent history: once in the late 1970s (during the oil and inflation shocks) and once in 2008 (during the global financial crisis). **What is noteworthy this time is that the surge in silver prices has not been accompanied by a collapse in the stock or bond markets; or at least, not yet. On the positive side, this makes the pattern seem unusual; on the negative side, it could be an ominous sign.** How can this phenomenon be explained? The answer lies in a mix of fear and greed, as well as an increase in financialization. Starting with greed: over the past year, industrial demand for silver has steadily risen, particularly from sectors such as electric vehicles and computing chips. If history serves as a guide, this will ultimately lead to supply expansion (i.e., more mining). However, since this cannot be realized quickly, there is currently a supply-demand imbalance. Moreover, the recent designation of silver as a strategic commodity by the White House has raised concerns about impending tariffs, further exacerbating this imbalance. As a result, **there has been a hoarding phenomenon domestically in the United States**. This, in turn, has intensified shortages in other regions, leading to strange price discrepancies between London and New York. Unsurprisingly, rumors have circulated that savvy financiers have been exploiting this price difference for arbitrage. If this is the case, it vaguely recalls the speculative dislocation that erupted in 1980—namely, the price distortions caused by aggressive financiers attempting to lock in profits, when a trading team known as the Hunt brothers launched a (notorious) short squeeze in the silver market. There is a third factor behind the surge in silver prices: as noted by the Bank for International Settlements this week, **retail frenzy is heating up**. Most notably, a "fear of missing out" is prompting investors to bet on AI-related fields as well as gold or cryptocurrencies. And as the prices of these assets have surged, some investors now seem to be turning to silver, especially as they realize that silver has practical uses—unlike many other speculative assets. This gives it double the appeal. It can be said that **silver is becoming the new gold** On the other hand, there is fear. Even though inflation still exceeds its 2% target, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates three times this year, and concerns about "fiscal dominance" are growing—meaning the government will force the central bank to lower rates to make it easier to service its ever-expanding debt. "This is all inflationary," warned Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TD Securities, in an email to clients this week, noting that in addition to cutting rates, the Fed also committed to restarting the purchase of government bonds this week. This has pushed up long-term bond yields in the U.S. and elsewhere for 2025, even as short-term rates decline. "We find this pattern of rising long-term rates during past Fed rate-cutting cycles to be extremely unusual," pointed out Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo. This has also led some investors to view gold and silver bars as a **"currency devaluation trade,"** hedging against the risks of inflation or even sovereign default eroding the value of fiat currency. Some, like U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, believe these concerns are unfounded. Last week, he posted a lively message on social media, accompanied by a cartoon character Franklin the Turtle (symbolizing the traditional financial wisdom of slow and steady wins the race), urging American savers to buy more government bonds, as he believes they are a reliable store of value. Moreover, as financial historians might point out, silver or gold certainly cannot guarantee to be more reliable assets. On the contrary, due to extremely thin market liquidity, silver prices have fluctuated greatly in the past, leading traders to jokingly refer to this precious metal as a "widowmaker," as it can cause significant losses. The Hunt brothers are one example: after a dramatic surge in 1980, prices plummeted, leading to their bankruptcy. This scenario could happen again. But for now, fear and greed still prevail, exacerbated by the uncertainty brought about by U.S. President Trump potentially taking action against the Fed or adjusting tariffs. In this sense, the failed Christmas commemorative coin is a powerful symbol of our times, where exuberance and unease intertwine in the markets, which is not the kind of "commemoration" the German Treasury wanted. _The above views are from Gillian Tett, a columnist and member of the editorial board of the Financial Times._ ### 相关股票 - [Pro Ultr Silver (AGQ.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/AGQ.US.md) - [iShares Silver Tr (SLV.US)](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/quote/SLV.US.md) ## 相关资讯与研究 - [What are the most profitable ways to sell your silver investments?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281562543.md) - [The DeCarley Perspective...We weren’t kidding when we said, “They are game-stopping silver.”](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281551815.md) - [Silver ETFs Log a Brutal Month — Which Fund Stands Out for a Rebound Play?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281559738.md) - [Americas Gold And Silver Bets Big On Growth](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281666534.md) - [GDX vs. SLV: Which Metals ETF Should You Buy?](https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/281561782.md)