<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1125" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<h3><strong>日本：预计日本央行将在制造业复苏和通胀压力下加息</strong></h3>
<p>日本央行预计将在 12 月 19 日加息 25 个基点。即将发布的数据应能增强日本央行对经济复苏的信心。随着关税不确定性的减少，我们预计制造业将出现更明显的反弹。这将在企业短期经济观测和采购经理人数据中有所体现。此外，预计 11 月出口将强劲增长，汽车和半导体推动增长 7%。我们预计 11 月通胀将在 3% 左右，服务价格的上涨压力将持续。这将使日本央行保持加息模式。</p>
<h3><strong>中国：工业生产和零售销售预计小幅上升，而固定资产投资继续收缩</strong></h3>
<p>中国将在周一发布 11 月的关键经济数据。我们预计工业生产和零售销售将略微上升，分别达到 5.1% 和 2.9% 的同比增长水平。然而，固定资产投资将继续收缩，年初至今为-2.8%。在没有任何刺激措施的情况下，70 个城市的房价预计将继续近期的下跌。房地产投资可能进一步放缓。由于 2025 年的增长目标看起来相当稳固，近期的刺激措施推出有限。但我们可能会在未来几个月宣布更多支持措施，因为 2026 年被视为一个重要年份——新五年计划的开始。</p>
<h3><strong>台湾：预计中央银行将维持利率不变</strong></h3>
<p>由于数据方面没有显著变化，中国中央银行的季度货币政策会议成为关键焦点。尽管美联储近期多次降息，我们认为中央银行将在周四将基准利率维持在 2.0% 不变。考虑到今年迄今为止增长的意外上行和对新台币稳定性的敏感性，降息的理由不大。市场对此意见一致，经济学家普遍呼吁维持利率不变。特别重要的是：其前瞻指引的任何鹰派或鸽派倾向。</p>
<h3><strong>印度尼西亚：预计印尼央行将降息 25 个基点</strong></h3>
<p>印尼央行可能在周三降息 25 个基点以促进增长。这是在 11 月通胀数据略微放缓以及由于近期美联储降息导致的利率差缩小对印尼盾施加压力的背景下进行的。</p>
<h3><strong>下周亚洲的关键事件</strong></h3>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/6ccc5d47-2fce-485e-b40b-4aada915f960.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="800" height="707" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/6ccc5d47-2fce-485e-b40b-4aada915f960.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>利率火花：一切能否为欧元鹰派对齐？</p>
<p>外汇日报：对美元空头来说可能更糟糕</p>
<p>又一次美联储降息，但分歧正在加大</p>

<p>下周，亚洲将迎来关键利率决策和经济数据。日本央行可能会在制造业复苏和通胀压力下加息。中国 11 月份的数据表明工业生产和零售销售略有上升，但固定资产投资仍在收缩。台湾中央银行可能会维持利率不变，而印度尼西亚央行可能会降息以促进增长。这些发展反映了该地区更广泛的经济趋势</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/4604639/pexels-photo-4604639.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><h3><strong>Japan: BoJ expected to raise rates amid manufacturing recovery and inflationary pressures</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>日本：预计日本央行将在制造业复苏和通胀压力下加息</strong></h3>
</div><p>The Bank of Japan is expected to deliver a 25 bp hike on 19 December. Upcoming data should bolster the BoJ’s belief that the economy is on a recovery path. With the reduction in tariff uncertainties, we expect a more pronounced bounceback in manufacturing. This should be reflected in Tankan and purchasing managers data. Also, November exports are projected to grow robustly, with a 7% gain driven by cars and semiconductors. We expect inflation to stay around 3% in November amid growing pressures from services prices. This will keep the BoJ in rate hike mode.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>日本央行预计将在 12 月 19 日加息 25 个基点。即将发布的数据应能增强日本央行对经济复苏的信心。随着关税不确定性的减少，我们预计制造业将出现更明显的反弹。这将在企业短期经济观测和采购经理人数据中有所体现。此外，预计 11 月出口将强劲增长，汽车和半导体推动增长 7%。我们预计 11 月通胀将在 3% 左右，服务价格的上涨压力将持续。这将使日本央行保持加息模式。</p>
</div><h3><strong>China: IP and retail sales expected to rise slightly while FAI continues to contract</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>中国：工业生产和零售销售预计小幅上升，而固定资产投资继续收缩</strong></h3>
</div><p>China publishes its key economic data for November on Monday. We expect industrial production and retail sales to edge up slightly from October's growth levels to 5.1% and 2.9% year-on-year, respectively. Yet, fixed asset investment will extend its contraction to -2.8% you, year-to-date. Absent any stimulus, the 70-city property prices are expected to extend recent declines. Property investment is likely to decelerate further. The rollout of stimulus has been limited in recent months as the 2025 growth target looks fairly secure. But we could get more support measures announced in the coming months with 2026 seen as an important year — the start of the new Five-Year period.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>中国将在周一发布 11 月的关键经济数据。我们预计工业生产和零售销售将略微上升，分别达到 5.1% 和 2.9% 的同比增长水平。然而，固定资产投资将继续收缩，年初至今为-2.8%。在没有任何刺激措施的情况下，70 个城市的房价预计将继续近期的下跌。房地产投资可能进一步放缓。由于 2025 年的增长目标看起来相当稳固，近期的刺激措施推出有限。但我们可能会在未来几个月宣布更多支持措施，因为 2026 年被视为一个重要年份——新五年计划的开始。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Taiwan: CBC expected to hold the interest rate</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>台湾：预计中央银行将维持利率不变</strong></h3>
</div><p>With little of note on the data front, the Central Bank of China's quarterly monetary policy meeting is the key focus. Despite the Federal Reserve’s multiple cuts in recent months, we believe the CBC will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.0% on Thursday. There's little reason to cut rates given the upside surprise to growth so far this year and recent sensitivity to the stability of the TWD. This opinion is shared by markets, with a unanimous call for a hold from economists. Of particular importance: any hawkish or dovish tilt to its forward guidance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于数据方面没有显著变化，中国中央银行的季度货币政策会议成为关键焦点。尽管美联储近期多次降息，我们认为中央银行将在周四将基准利率维持在 2.0% 不变。考虑到今年迄今为止增长的意外上行和对新台币稳定性的敏感性，降息的理由不大。市场对此意见一致，经济学家普遍呼吁维持利率不变。特别重要的是：其前瞻指引的任何鹰派或鸽派倾向。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Indonesia: BI expected to cut rates by 25bps</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>印度尼西亚：预计印尼央行将降息 25 个基点</strong></h3>
</div><p>Bank Indonesia is likely to cut rates by 25 bps on Wednesday to boost growth. This comes amid a slightly softer inflation print in November and pressure on IDR from narrower rate differentials easing after the recent Fed cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>印尼央行可能在周三降息 25 个基点以促进增长。这是在 11 月通胀数据略微放缓以及由于近期美联储降息导致的利率差缩小对印尼盾施加压力的背景下进行的。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Key events in Asia next week</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>下周亚洲的关键事件</strong></h3>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/6ccc5d47-2fce-485e-b40b-4aada915f960.png" alt="" original-src="https://think.ing.com/uploads/charts/_w800/6ccc5d47-2fce-485e-b40b-4aada915f960.png"/></p>
<hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Rates Spark: Can Everything Align For The Euro Hawks?</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利率火花：一切能否为欧元鹰派对齐？</p>
</div><p>FX Daily: It Could Have Been Worse For Dollar Bears</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>外汇日报：对美元空头来说可能更糟糕</p>
</div><p>Another Fed Cut, But There Is Growing Dissent</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>又一次美联储降息，但分歧正在加大</p>
</div>

亚洲本周展望：日本、印度尼西亚、台湾的利率决策以及中国的重要数据