<p>纳斯达克的审查定于周五进行，MSCI 将在一月份作出决定</p>
<p>一些分析师表示，Strategy 不符合纳入资格</p>
<p>随着比特币价格回落，Strategy 的股价大幅下跌</p>
<p>作者：Shashwat Chauhan</p>
<p>12 月 12 日（路透社）- 比特币囤积巨头 Strategy（MSTR.O）可能面临在周五的年度重组中被剔除出纳斯达克 100 指数（.NDX）的风险，因其商业模式受到质疑，这对其股价造成了压力，一些分析师本周指出。</p>
<p>在经历了一波热潮后，其市值在今年早些时候达到了 1280 亿美元的峰值，Strategy - 最初是一家软件公司 MicroStrategy，但在 2020 年转向比特币投资 - 于去年 12 月被纳入该指数的科技子类别。</p>
<p>这一决定受到一些市场观察者的质疑，他们认为这种开创性的商业模式更像是一种投资基金，已经催生了数十家模仿者。</p>
<p>Strategy 报告称，截至 9 月 30 日的三个月内净利润为 27.8 亿美元，而去年同期则亏损 3.402 亿美元，主要是由于会计变更使其能够确认比特币持有的收益。与此同时，这家总部位于弗吉尼亚的公司的传统软件业务收入仅为 1.287 亿美元。</p>
<p>“如果 MSTR 被视为控股公司或加密货币公司，而不是其传统的软件公司业务，那么它就可能面临被剔除的风险，” 互动经纪公司的首席市场分析师 Steve Sosnick 表示。</p>
<p>该交易所运营商的纳斯达克 100 指数追踪市值最大的非金融公司，未在周五的公告前对此发表评论。</p>
<p>《信息》在 9 月份报道，纳斯达克已收紧对其上市的数字资产财务公司的要求。它通常不对这些公司纳入其指数的情况发表评论。</p>
<p>Strategy 未对此请求作出回应。</p>
<p>指数重组备受关注，因为它决定了哪些公司能够从数十亿的被动投资者资金中受益。不过，Saylor 通常对潜在的指数剔除表示不以为然，其他一些分析师表示，他们并不预计纳斯达克会在周五删除 Strategy。</p>
<h3>数字资产财务公司的质疑</h3>
<p>人们对加密货币财务公司的可持续性日益担忧，这些公司的股价对比特币的波动极为敏感。Strategy 的股价较 2024 年的峰值下跌了 65%，年初至今下跌了 36%，而比特币（BTC=）今年下跌了 3.6%。</p>
<p>根据路透社的计算，Strategy 的市值截至周四已降至 527 亿美元，而其比特币持有价值超过 610 亿美元。</p>
<p>虽然这不足以在市值方面将 Strategy 排除在外，但 JonesTrading 的首席市场策略师 Mike O’Rourke 在本周的一份报告中表示，Strategy 是因技术原因被纳入的，周五是纳斯达克纠正去年错误的 “绝佳机会”。</p>
<p>如果纳斯达克剔除 Strategy，该公司可能会面临约 16 亿美元的被动基金流出，估计来自 Jefferies 的指数策略负责人 Kaasha Saini。</p>
<p>全球指数提供商 MSCI（MSCI.N）对其基准中数字资产财务公司的存在表示担忧。MSCI 将在一月份决定是否排除 Strategy 及类似公司。</p>
<p>Saylor 本月告诉路透社，Strategy 正在与 MSCI 进行沟通，但如果被排除也无所谓。</p>
<p>一些分析师认为，Strategy 是安全的，因为其市值仍然相对较高。H.C. Wainwright 的分析师 Mike Colonnese 怀疑 Strategy 会被剔除，因为它 “比纳斯达克 100 中的约 30 家公司都要大。”</p>
<p>除了 Strategy，Jefferies 估计制药公司 Biogen（BIIB.O）、IT 解决方案提供商 CDW（CDW.O）和其他四只股票可能会离开纳斯达克 100。根据 LSEG 汇编的数据，这六家公司目前在 100 个成分股中市值最低。</p>
<p>Jefferies 预计，零售巨头沃尔玛（WMT.N）市值为 9327 亿美元，此次不符合纳入资格，因为其在纳斯达克的有效交易首日（12 月 8 日）晚于交易所 11 月 28 日的重新平衡参考日期。</p>
<p>纳斯达克的公告预计将在周五市场收盘后发布，变更将于 12 月 22 日生效。</p>
<p>Strategy 的惊险之旅</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4pIp91G?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1420" height="994" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4pIp91G"/></p>

MSTR

<p>由于对其商业模式和市值的担忧，Strategy 可能在纳斯达克 100 指数的年度重组中被移除。分析师对这家专注于比特币的公司是否符合纳入标准意见不一。其股价大幅下跌，目前市值为 527 亿美元。如果被移除，Strategy 可能面临 16 亿美元的被动基金流出。纳斯达克的决定预计将在周五市场收盘后公布，变动将于 12 月 22 日生效</p>

<p>Nasdaq’s review due on Friday, MSCI in January</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纳斯达克的审查定于周五进行，MSCI 将在一月份作出决定</p>
</div><p>Some analysts say Strategy does not qualify for inclusion</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析师表示，Strategy 不符合纳入资格</p>
</div><p>Strategy shares dropped sharply as bitcoin came off its high</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着比特币价格回落，Strategy 的股价大幅下跌</p>
</div><p>By Shashwat Chauhan</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Shashwat Chauhan</p>
</div><p>Dec 12 (Reuters) - Bitcoin hoarding giant Strategy (MSTR.O) may be at risk of being removed from the Nasdaq 100 index (.NDX) at its annual reshuffle on Friday, amid questions over its business model that have weighed on its share price, some analysts flagged this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12 月 12 日（路透社）- 比特币囤积巨头 Strategy（MSTR.O）可能面临在周五的年度重组中被剔除出纳斯达克 100 指数（.NDX）的风险，因其商业模式受到质疑，这对其股价造成了压力，一些分析师本周指出。</p>
</div><p>After a sizzling rally that pushed its market capitalization to a peak of $128 billion earlier this year, Strategy - which started out as software company MicroStrategy but pivoted to bitcoin investing in 2020 - was included last December under the index’s technology sub-category.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在经历了一波热潮后，其市值在今年早些时候达到了 1280 亿美元的峰值，Strategy - 最初是一家软件公司 MicroStrategy，但在 2020 年转向比特币投资 - 于去年 12 月被纳入该指数的科技子类别。</p>
</div><p>That decision was questioned by some market-watchers who argued that the pioneering business model, which has spawned dozens of copycats, more closely resembles an investment fund.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一决定受到一些市场观察者的质疑，他们认为这种开创性的商业模式更像是一种投资基金，已经催生了数十家模仿者。</p>
</div><p>Strategy reported a net profit of $2.78 billion for the three months ended September 30, compared with a loss of $340.2 million a year earlier, mostly driven by an accounting change that allowed it to book gains on its bitcoin holdings. The Virginia-based company’s revenue from the legacy software business, meanwhile, stood at just $128.7 million.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 报告称，截至 9 月 30 日的三个月内净利润为 27.8 亿美元，而去年同期则亏损 3.402 亿美元，主要是由于会计变更使其能够确认比特币持有的收益。与此同时，这家总部位于弗吉尼亚的公司的传统软件业务收入仅为 1.287 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>“If MSTR is deemed to be a holding company or a cryptocurrency company rather than its legacy business as a software company, then it is susceptible to removal,” said Steve Sosnick, chief market analyst at Interactive Brokers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“如果 MSTR 被视为控股公司或加密货币公司，而不是其传统的软件公司业务，那么它就可能面临被剔除的风险，” 互动经纪公司的首席市场分析师 Steve Sosnick 表示。</p>
</div><p>The exchange operator, whose Nasdaq 100 index tracks the largest non-financial companies by market capitalization, declined to comment ahead of the announcement on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>该交易所运营商的纳斯达克 100 指数追踪市值最大的非金融公司，未在周五的公告前对此发表评论。</p>
</div><p>The Information reported in September that Nasdaq has been tightening requirements for digital asset treasury companies it lists. It has not generally commented on the inclusion of those firms in its indices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>《信息》在 9 月份报道，纳斯达克已收紧对其上市的数字资产财务公司的要求。它通常不对这些公司纳入其指数的情况发表评论。</p>
</div><p>Strategy did not respond to a request for comment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 未对此请求作出回应。</p>
</div><p>Index reshuffles are closely watched, since they dictate which companies benefit from billions of passive investor flows. Saylor, though, has generally dismissed worries over potential index exclusion, and some other analysts said they did not expect Nasdaq to delete Strategy on Friday.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>指数重组备受关注，因为它决定了哪些公司能够从数十亿的被动投资者资金中受益。不过，Saylor 通常对潜在的指数剔除表示不以为然，其他一些分析师表示，他们并不预计纳斯达克会在周五删除 Strategy。</p>
</div><h3>DIGITAL ASSET TREASURY QUESTIONS</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>数字资产财务公司的质疑</h3>
</div><p>Concerns have grown over the sustainability of crypto treasury companies, whose shares have proved extremely sensitive to bitcoin’s gyrations. Strategy shares are down 65% from their 2024 peak and 36% year-to-date, compared with a 3.6% drop in bitcoin (BTC=) this year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人们对加密货币财务公司的可持续性日益担忧，这些公司的股价对比特币的波动极为敏感。Strategy 的股价较 2024 年的峰值下跌了 65%，年初至今下跌了 36%，而比特币（BTC=）今年下跌了 3.6%。</p>
</div><p>Strategy’s market value has fallen to $52.7 billion as of Thursday, while its bitcoin holdings are worth more than $61 billion, according to Reuters calculations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据路透社的计算，Strategy 的市值截至周四已降至 527 亿美元，而其比特币持有价值超过 610 亿美元。</p>
</div><p>While that isn’t enough to exclude Strategy on market capitalization grounds, Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, argued in a note this week that Strategy had been included on a technicality and that Friday was a “perfect opportunity for Nasdaq to correct last year’s mistake.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>虽然这不足以在市值方面将 Strategy 排除在外，但 JonesTrading 的首席市场策略师 Mike O’Rourke 在本周的一份报告中表示，Strategy 是因技术原因被纳入的，周五是纳斯达克纠正去年错误的 “绝佳机会”。</p>
</div><p>If Nasdaq removes Strategy, the company could experience passive fund outflows of about $1.6 billion, according to estimates by Kaasha Saini, head of index strategy at Jefferies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果纳斯达克剔除 Strategy，该公司可能会面临约 16 亿美元的被动基金流出，估计来自 Jefferies 的指数策略负责人 Kaasha Saini。</p>
</div><p>Global index provider MSCI (MSCI.N) has raised concerns about the presence of digital asset treasury companies in its benchmarks. MSCI is due to decide in January on whether to exclude Strategy and similar companies.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>全球指数提供商 MSCI（MSCI.N）对其基准中数字资产财务公司的存在表示担忧。MSCI 将在一月份决定是否排除 Strategy 及类似公司。</p>
</div><p>Saylor told Reuters this month that Strategy was engaging with MSCI, but that if it was excluded it wouldn’t matter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Saylor 本月告诉路透社，Strategy 正在与 MSCI 进行沟通，但如果被排除也无所谓。</p>
</div><p>Some analysts believe that Strategy is safe because its market value is still relatively high. H.C. Wainwright analyst Mike Colonnese doubted Strategy would be removed, since it is “larger than about 30 other companies in the Nasdaq 100.”</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些分析师认为，Strategy 是安全的，因为其市值仍然相对较高。H.C. Wainwright 的分析师 Mike Colonnese 怀疑 Strategy 会被剔除，因为它 “比纳斯达克 100 中的约 30 家公司都要大。”</p>
</div><p>Beyond Strategy, Jefferies estimates drugmaker Biogen (BIIB.O) , IT solutions provider CDW (CDW.O) and four other stocks could depart from the Nasdaq 100. The six companies currently have the lowest market cap among the 100 members, according to data compiled by LSEG.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>除了 Strategy，Jefferies 估计制药公司 Biogen（BIIB.O）、IT 解决方案提供商 CDW（CDW.O）和其他四只股票可能会离开纳斯达克 100。根据 LSEG 汇编的数据，这六家公司目前在 100 个成分股中市值最低。</p>
</div><p>Jefferies expects that retail giant Walmart (WMT.N) , which has a market capitalization of $932.7 billion, is not eligible to be included this time, because its effective first day of trading (December 8) on the Nasdaq was after the exchange’s November 28 reference date for the rebalancing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Jefferies 预计，零售巨头沃尔玛（WMT.N）市值为 9327 亿美元，此次不符合纳入资格，因为其在纳斯达克的有效交易首日（12 月 8 日）晚于交易所 11 月 28 日的重新平衡参考日期。</p>
</div><p>Nasdaq’s announcement is expected after the market close on Friday, with changes effective December 22.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纳斯达克的公告预计将在周五市场收盘后发布，变更将于 12 月 22 日生效。</p>
</div><p>Strategy’s wild ride</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Strategy 的惊险之旅</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://reut.rs/4pIp91G" alt="" original-src="https://reut.rs/4pIp91G"/></p>

分析师指出纳斯达克 100 指数重组策略中存在的风险