<ul>
<li>如果你在考虑 Spotify Technology 在大幅上涨后是否仍然值得投资，或者是否已经错过了轻松获利的机会，那么你来对地方了，我们将深入分析当前股价的真实含义。</li>
<li>该股票刚刚收盘于约 598.87 美元，今年迄今已上涨 30.8%，三年内上涨 727.6%，尽管在过去一个月中下跌了 6.4%，但在过去一周内反弹了 6.8%。</li>
<li>这些波动发生在投资者消化 Spotify 向盈利转型的过程中，以及其在美国和欧洲等主要市场的价格上涨，以及在有声书和播客领域的战略投资，这些都在重塑其收入结构。同时，关于流媒体市场的讨论以及来自苹果和亚马逊的竞争也让市场情绪保持活跃，为该股票增添了兴奋和不确定性。</li>
<li>根据我们的框架，Spotify 在估值检查中得分为 3/6，表明在某些指标上看起来被低估，但并非所有指标。接下来，我们将分析不同的估值方法对这一价格标签的看法，然后回到一种比任何单一模型更强大的价值判断方式。</li>
</ul>
<p>Spotify Technology 在过去一年中实现了 24.7% 的回报。看看这与娱乐行业其他公司的表现如何。</p>
<h3>方法 1：Spotify Technology 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流（DCF）模型通过预测公司未来能够产生的现金流，并将这些现金流折现回今天，来估算公司的价值。对于 Spotify，使用的模型是基于现金流预测的两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法。</p>
<p>Spotify 在过去十二个月中产生了约 29 亿欧元的自由现金流，分析师的预测和外推表明，到 2035 年，这一数字可能上升到约 92 亿欧元。分析师提供了未来几年的详细估计，此外 Simply Wall St 还使用逐渐放缓的增长假设延续这一趋势，以避免不切实际的长期高增长率。</p>
<p>当这些预测的现金流折现回今天时，DCF 模型得出的每股内在价值约为 689.47 美元，约比最近的股价 598.87 美元高出 13.1%。基于这一点，Spotify 看起来被适度低估，但并不是深度便宜。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明，Spotify Technology 被低估了 13.1%。将其添加到你的观察列表或投资组合中，或发现基于现金流的 904 只更多被低估的股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 SPOT 折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 Spotify Technology 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法 2：Spotify Technology 市盈率</h3>
<p>对于像 Spotify 这样的盈利公司，市盈率是一个有用的衡量标准，因为它将投资者今天支付的价格与公司实际产生的利润联系起来。预期增长越高，感知风险越低，投资者通常愿意以更高的市盈率支付更多。</p>
<p>Spotify 当前的市盈率约为 74.81 倍，远高于更广泛的娱乐行业平均水平约 20.83 倍，略低于其同行平均水平约 77.24 倍。这表明投资者已经在考虑强劲的增长和相对有利的前景，相较于典型的媒体股票。</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 的公允比率框架进一步估算了考虑到 Spotify 特定的盈利增长特征、利润率、规模、行业和风险因素后，Spotify 的市盈率应为多少。对于 Spotify，该公允比率约为 34.99 倍，明显低于当前的 74.81 倍。基于这一点，股票相对于当前隐含的增长和风险水平显得昂贵。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:SPOT 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1447 家内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
<h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的 Spotify Technology 叙述</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，让我们来介绍叙述。通过叙述，你可以用简单的语言描述你对公司的看法，并将这个故事与未来收入、盈利、利润率和最终公允价值估计的具体预测联系起来。</p>
<p>叙述将三个部分连接在一起：你相信的商业故事、从这个故事流出的数字，以及一个让你能够将期望与当前股价进行比较的公允价值。</p>
<p>在 Simply Wall St，叙述存在于社区页面，旨在易于使用。你可以快速输入你的假设，查看结果预测和公允价值，并根据公允价值与价格之间的差距决定股票是否看起来值得买入、持有或卖出。</p>
<p>由于叙述在新信息（如盈利结果、产品公告或宏观新闻）到达时会动态更新，它们帮助你保持你的论点最新，而不是依赖于静态的单一模型。</p>
<p>对于 Spotify Technology，一位投资者可能会构建一个支持公允价值在 485 美元左右的叙述，如果他们对利润率和竞争持谨慎态度。另一位投资者可能会假设更强的用户增长、定价能力和经营杠杆，看到接近 910 美元的路径。两位投资者都可以透明地看到他们的故事如何转化为数字。</p>
<p>你认为 Spotify Technology 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1044" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:SPOT 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
<p>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章是一般性的。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</p>
<p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
<p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的，而是完全自主的塔楼，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达服务，覆盖任何地方。</p>
<p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
<p>由 CiTech 赞助</p>

SPOT

<p>Spotify 的股票在三年内上涨了 727.6%，最近的价格为 598.87 美元。尽管最近出现了一些下跌，公司仍在通过在有声书和播客领域的战略举措推动盈利。现金流折现分析表明该股票被低估了 13.1%，而高市盈率则表明与行业平均水平相比可能被高估。投资者在考虑 Spotify 的增长潜力时，也面临来自苹果和亚马逊的竞争</p>

<ul>
<li>If you are wondering whether Spotify Technology is still worth considering after its big run, or if the easy money has already been made, you are in the right place to unpack what the current share price really implies.</li>
<li>The stock just closed around $598.87 and has surged 30.8% year to date and 727.6% over three years, even though it has dipped 6.4% over the last month and bounced 6.8% in the past week.</li>
<li>Those swings are happening as investors digest Spotify's push into profitability, its price hikes across key markets like the US and Europe, and strategic bets on audiobooks and podcasting that are reshaping its revenue mix. At the same time, market chatter about the streaming landscape and competition from Apple and Amazon is keeping sentiment lively, adding both excitement and uncertainty around the stock.</li>
<li>On our framework Spotify scores a 3/6 valuation check score, suggesting it looks undervalued on some metrics but not all. Next we will break down what different valuation approaches say about that price tag, and then circle back to a more powerful way to judge value than any single model alone.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果你在考虑 Spotify Technology 在大幅上涨后是否仍然值得投资，或者是否已经错过了轻松获利的机会，那么你来对地方了，我们将深入分析当前股价的真实含义。</li>
<li>该股票刚刚收盘于约 598.87 美元，今年迄今已上涨 30.8%，三年内上涨 727.6%，尽管在过去一个月中下跌了 6.4%，但在过去一周内反弹了 6.8%。</li>
<li>这些波动发生在投资者消化 Spotify 向盈利转型的过程中，以及其在美国和欧洲等主要市场的价格上涨，以及在有声书和播客领域的战略投资，这些都在重塑其收入结构。同时，关于流媒体市场的讨论以及来自苹果和亚马逊的竞争也让市场情绪保持活跃，为该股票增添了兴奋和不确定性。</li>
<li>根据我们的框架，Spotify 在估值检查中得分为 3/6，表明在某些指标上看起来被低估，但并非所有指标。接下来，我们将分析不同的估值方法对这一价格标签的看法，然后回到一种比任何单一模型更强大的价值判断方式。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Spotify Technology delivered 24.7% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Entertainment industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Spotify Technology 在过去一年中实现了 24.7% 的回报。看看这与娱乐行业其他公司的表现如何。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: Spotify Technology Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 1：Spotify Technology 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth by projecting the cash it can generate in the future and then discounting those cash flows back to today. For Spotify, the model used is a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流（DCF）模型通过预测公司未来能够产生的现金流，并将这些现金流折现回今天，来估算公司的价值。对于 Spotify，使用的模型是基于现金流预测的两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法。</p>
</div><p>Spotify generated about €2.9 billion in free cash flow over the last twelve months, and analyst forecasts combined with extrapolations suggest this could rise to roughly €9.2 billion by 2035. Analysts provide detailed estimates for the next few years, and beyond that Simply Wall St extends the trend using gradually slowing growth assumptions, which helps avoid unrealistically high long term growth rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Spotify 在过去十二个月中产生了约 29 亿欧元的自由现金流，分析师的预测和外推表明，到 2035 年，这一数字可能上升到约 92 亿欧元。分析师提供了未来几年的详细估计，此外 Simply Wall St 还使用逐渐放缓的增长假设延续这一趋势，以避免不切实际的长期高增长率。</p>
</div><p>When those projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about $689.47 per share, which is roughly 13.1% above the recent share price of $598.87. On this basis, Spotify appears modestly undervalued, though not a deep bargain.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当这些预测的现金流折现回今天时，DCF 模型得出的每股内在价值约为 689.47 美元，约比最近的股价 598.87 美元高出 13.1%。基于这一点，Spotify 看起来被适度低估，但并不是深度便宜。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Spotify Technology is undervalued by 13.1%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 904 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明，Spotify Technology 被低估了 13.1%。将其添加到你的观察列表或投资组合中，或发现基于现金流的 904 只更多被低估的股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>SPOT Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 SPOT 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Spotify Technology.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 Spotify Technology 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: Spotify Technology Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 2：Spotify Technology 市盈率</h3>
</div><p>For profitable companies like Spotify, the price to earnings ratio is a useful yardstick because it links what investors pay today to the profits the business is actually generating. The higher the expected growth and the lower the perceived risk, the more investors are usually willing to pay in the form of a higher PE multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像 Spotify 这样的盈利公司，市盈率是一个有用的衡量标准，因为它将投资者今天支付的价格与公司实际产生的利润联系起来。预期增长越高，感知风险越低，投资者通常愿意以更高的市盈率支付更多。</p>
</div><p>Spotify currently trades on a PE of about 74.81x, which is well above the broader Entertainment industry average of around 20.83x and slightly below its peer group average of roughly 77.24x. That indicates investors are already baking in strong growth and a relatively favorable outlook compared to the typical media stock.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Spotify 当前的市盈率约为 74.81 倍，远高于更广泛的娱乐行业平均水平约 20.83 倍，略低于其同行平均水平约 77.24 倍。这表明投资者已经在考虑强劲的增长和相对有利的前景，相较于典型的媒体股票。</p>
</div><p>Simply Wall St’s Fair Ratio framework goes a step further by estimating what Spotify’s PE multiple should be, given its specific earnings growth profile, profit margins, size, industry and risk factors. For Spotify, that Fair Ratio is around 34.99x, which is materially lower than the current 74.81x. On this basis the shares appear expensive relative to the level of growth and risk currently implied.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 的公允比率框架进一步估算了考虑到 Spotify 特定的盈利增长特征、利润率、规模、行业和风险因素后，Spotify 的市盈率应为多少。对于 Spotify，该公允比率约为 34.99 倍，明显低于当前的 74.81 倍。基于这一点，股票相对于当前隐含的增长和风险水平显得昂贵。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:SPOT PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:SPOT 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1447 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1447 家内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Spotify Technology Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的 Spotify Technology 叙述</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives. With Narratives, you describe your view of a company in plain language and link that story to specific forecasts for future revenue, earnings, margins and ultimately a fair value estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法，让我们来介绍叙述。通过叙述，你可以用简单的语言描述你对公司的看法，并将这个故事与未来收入、盈利、利润率和最终公允价值估计的具体预测联系起来。</p>
</div><p>A Narrative connects three pieces together: the business story you believe, the numbers that flow from that story and a fair value that lets you compare your expectations to the current share price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>叙述将三个部分连接在一起：你相信的商业故事、从这个故事流出的数字，以及一个让你能够将期望与当前股价进行比较的公允价值。</p>
</div><p>On Simply Wall St, Narratives live in the Community page and are designed to be easy to use. You can quickly plug in your assumptions, see the resulting forecasts and fair value, and decide whether the stock looks like a buy, a hold or a sell based on the gap between Fair Value and Price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Simply Wall St，叙述存在于社区页面，旨在易于使用。你可以快速输入你的假设，查看结果预测和公允价值，并根据公允价值与价格之间的差距决定股票是否看起来值得买入、持有或卖出。</p>
</div><p>Because Narratives are updated dynamically when new information such as earnings results, product announcements or macro news arrives, they help you keep your thesis current instead of relying on a static one off model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于叙述在新信息（如盈利结果、产品公告或宏观新闻）到达时会动态更新，它们帮助你保持你的论点最新，而不是依赖于静态的单一模型。</p>
</div><p>For Spotify Technology, one investor might build a Narrative that supports a fair value around $485 if they are cautious on margins and competition. Another investor might see a path closer to $910 by assuming stronger user growth, pricing power and operating leverage. Both investors can transparently see how their story translates into numbers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 Spotify Technology，一位投资者可能会构建一个支持公允价值在 485 美元左右的叙述，如果他们对利润率和竞争持谨慎态度。另一位投资者可能会假设更强的用户增长、定价能力和经营杠杆，看到接近 910 美元的路径。两位投资者都可以透明地看到他们的故事如何转化为数字。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for Spotify Technology? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为 Spotify Technology 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/b3162c90-7031-4c3b-a01e-6e190f69a213/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:SPOT 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NYSE:SPOT 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章是一般性的。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</p>
</div><p>Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and Disaster</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
</div><p>The next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的，而是完全自主的塔楼，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达服务，覆盖任何地方。</p>
</div><p>Get the investor briefing before the next round of contracts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
</div><p>Sponsored On Behalf of CiTech</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由 CiTech 赞助</p>
</div>

在 Spotify 三年内上涨 727.6% 并推动盈利之后，它是否仍然具有吸引力？