<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1517424788495-0d03ec42e244/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1000" height="667" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1517424788495-0d03ec42e244/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
<p>标准普尔 500 指数今天下跌了 100 点，而上涨 - 下跌线保持在 50-50。这种组合是不可能的。</p>
<p>科技股正在大幅抛售。博通（Broadcom）在创下历史新高后暴跌。英伟达（Nvidia）陷入困境。微软（Microsoft）不断受到打击。谷歌（Google）突破了预期的下行幅度。</p>
<p>然而，表面上更广泛的市场看起来很平静，因为交易者正在进行轮换游戏。资金涌入金融股、沃尔玛（Walmart）、波音（Boeing）和特斯拉（Tesla），以掩盖科技股的损失。</p>
<p>这是一种虚假的安全感。</p>
<p>我已经观察标准普尔期货在 6820 到 6900 之间波动了近两周。我们现在正处于该波动区间的下边缘。突破 6800 将打开显著下行的空间，因为各个行业之间的相关性开始显现。</p>
<p>以下是下周特别危险的原因：</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>尽管美联储降息，债券市场却在崩溃。</strong> 10 年期收益率正在逼近 4.2%，并且本周收盘时明显高于开盘时。</li>
<li><strong>TLT 连续两周的预期下行幅度降低。</strong> 这表明债券市场出现趋势性抛售。</li>
<li><strong>债券看守者可能很快就会到来。</strong> 利率上升而市场下跌将冲击每个行业。</li>
</ul>
<p>当债券市场压力与科技行业疲软结合时，轮换游戏就结束了。那条 50-50 的上涨 - 下跌线将崩溃。所有支撑市场的金融股和防御性股票将随着被动投资流动而下跌。</p>
<p>我今天在 XLF 上采取了看跌头寸，但没有进行额外交易。我在等待更高程度的相关性，然后再全面调整头寸。</p>
<p>三重魔法日将在下周五到来，数万亿的期权到期。通常情况下，周一和周二是真正的行动开始时刻。</p>
<p><em>视频时长：00:23:59</em></p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
<p>布雷克刚刚发现美联储的真正赢家</p>
<p>美联储发言，市场无动于衷。</p>
<p>为什么明天比今天更重要</p>

<p>标准普尔 500 指数因科技股抛售下跌了 100 点，博通、英伟达、微软和谷歌均出现下滑。尽管表面平静，资金正在转向金融、沃尔玛、波音和特斯拉。债券市场的压力和科技股的疲软可能会结束这种轮换，风险是更广泛的市场下跌。对 XLF 采取了看跌头寸，等待更高的相关性再进行进一步交易。下周五的三重魔法日可能会引发显著的市场波动</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1517424788495-0d03ec42e244/query-YXV0bz1mb3JtYXQmZml0PWNyb3AmaXhpZD1leUpoY0hCZmFXUWlPakV5TURkOSZpeGxpYj1yYi0xLjIuMSZxPTgwJnc9MTAwMA" alt="" original-src="https://images.unsplash.com/photo-1517424788495-0d03ec42e244?ixlib=rb-1.2.1&amp;ixid=eyJhcHBfaWQiOjEyMDd9&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=crop&amp;w=1000&amp;q=80"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Unsplash</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Unsplash</em></p>
</div><p>The S&amp;P 500 dropped 100 points today while the advance-decline line sat at 50-50. That combination should not be possible.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>标准普尔 500 指数今天下跌了 100 点，而上涨 - 下跌线保持在 50-50。这种组合是不可能的。</p>
</div><p>Tech is selling off hard. Broadcom AVGO cratered after hitting all-time highs. Nvidia NVDA is stuck in the mud. Microsoft MSFT keeps taking hits. Google GOOGL broke outside its expected move to the downside.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>科技股正在大幅抛售。博通（Broadcom）在创下历史新高后暴跌。英伟达（Nvidia）陷入困境。微软（Microsoft）不断受到打击。谷歌（Google）突破了预期的下行幅度。</p>
</div><p>Yet the broader market looks calm on the surface because traders are playing the rotation game. Capital is flooding into financials, Walmart WMT, Boeing BA, and Tesla TSLA to mask the damage in tech.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，表面上更广泛的市场看起来很平静，因为交易者正在进行轮换游戏。资金涌入金融股、沃尔玛（Walmart）、波音（Boeing）和特斯拉（Tesla），以掩盖科技股的损失。</p>
</div><p>This is a false sense of security.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这是一种虚假的安全感。</p>
</div><p>I've been watching the S&amp;P futures trade in an 80-point range between 6820 and 6900 for nearly two weeks. We're now sitting right at the lower edge of that volatility box. A crack through 6800 opens the door to significant downside as correlation kicks in across sectors.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我已经观察标准普尔期货在 6820 到 6900 之间波动了近两周。我们现在正处于该波动区间的下边缘。突破 6800 将打开显著下行的空间，因为各个行业之间的相关性开始显现。</p>
</div><p>Here's what makes next week particularly dangerous:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是下周特别危险的原因：</p>
</div><ul>
<li><strong>The bond market is breaking down despite the Fed's rate cut.</strong> The 10-year yield is pushing toward 4.2% and closing the week considerably higher than it started.</li>
<li><strong>Back-to-back weeks of lower-edge expected moves in TLT.</strong> This signals trend-worthy selling in bonds.</li>
<li><strong>Bond vigilantes may be arriving soon.</strong> Interest rates rising while markets sell off will slam every sector.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li><strong>尽管美联储降息，债券市场却在崩溃。</strong> 10 年期收益率正在逼近 4.2%，并且本周收盘时明显高于开盘时。</li>
<li><strong>TLT 连续两周的预期下行幅度降低。</strong> 这表明债券市场出现趋势性抛售。</li>
<li><strong>债券看守者可能很快就会到来。</strong> 利率上升而市场下跌将冲击每个行业。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>When bond market stress combines with tech sector weakness, the rotation game ends. That 50-50 advance-decline line will collapse. All those financials and defensive names propping up the market will get dragged down with the passive investment flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当债券市场压力与科技行业疲软结合时，轮换游戏就结束了。那条 50-50 的上涨 - 下跌线将崩溃。所有支撑市场的金融股和防御性股票将随着被动投资流动而下跌。</p>
</div><p>I took a bearish position in XLF today but held off on additional trades. I'm waiting for higher degrees of correlation before fully repositioning.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我今天在 XLF 上采取了看跌头寸，但没有进行额外交易。我在等待更高程度的相关性，然后再全面调整头寸。</p>
</div><p>Triple witching arrives next Friday with trillions in options expiring. Monday and Tuesday are when the real action typically begins.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>三重魔法日将在下周五到来，数万亿的期权到期。通常情况下，周一和周二是真正的行动开始时刻。</p>
</div><p><em>Video Length: 00:23:59</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>视频时长：00:23:59</em></p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的内容：</em></p>
</div><p>Blake Just Spotted the Fed's Real Winners</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布雷克刚刚发现美联储的真正赢家</p>
</div><p>The Fed Spoke. The Market Shrugged.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储发言，市场无动于衷。</p>
</div><p>Why Tomorrow Matters More Than Today</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为什么明天比今天更重要</p>
</div>

人工智能的恐惧情绪正在升级并开始扩散