<p>数字货币正经历显著的下跌，流动性减弱阻碍了上涨，并加速了每一次下跌。</p>
<p>过去一周，加密货币明显保持谨慎，主要头条未能激发反弹，至少没有达到分析师和交易者的预期。</p>
<p><strong>未能提振加密货币的降息</strong></p>
<p>本周所有目光仍集中在 12 月 10 日的 FOMC 会议上。</p>
<p>你会期待降息能提振整个加密货币市场，特别是由于预测的第四季度牛市。</p>
<p>通常，较低的借贷成本和新的流动性会重新激发对风险资产的兴趣。</p>
<p>然而，本周的情况并非如此。</p>
<p>在美联储实施预期中的 25 个基点降息后，加密货币短暂飙升，但由于比特币未能突破 92,000 美元至 94,000 美元之间的关键阻力位，迅速失去动力。</p>
<p>为何表现令人惊讶/失望？尽管降息是利好，但市场对美联储主席的语气做出了反应。</p>
<p>值得注意的是，杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调了持续的高通胀和恶化的劳动力市场，暗示中央银行并不准备比预期更早地重新开放流动性。</p>
<p>Wise Advice@wiseadvicesumit·关注 https://twitter.com/wiseadvicesumit/status/1999075220813156775 回复 @wiseadvicesumit</p>
<p>鲍威尔的语气偏鹰派鲍威尔重申了风险：✓ 就业下行风险上升 ✓ 通胀仍然高企 ✓ 商品通胀回升 ✓ 利率现在处于 “合理中性区间”，但降息可能暂停市场对此反应强烈。</p>
<p>在 Twitter 上查看回复 2025 年 12 月 11 日下午 4:44https://help.twitter.com/en/twitter-for-websites-ads-info-and-privacy17 回复复制链接查看 3 条回复</p>
<p>此外，新预测表明我们在未来一年内可能只有一次降息。</p>
<p>鹰派语气在降息后仍然对风险资产施加了卖压。</p>
<p>然而，这并不新鲜。这种趋势在最近的会议后反复出现。</p>
<p>比特币在 2023 年中旬暴跌，尽管当时通胀放缓，违背了分析师的预期。</p>
<p>在 2020 年 3 月，比特币在激进的法币印刷中一天内损失了大约 40%。</p>
<p>因此，市场并不仅仅对政策做出反应。</p>
<p>最重要的是市场参与者对未来几轮流动性的预期。</p>
<p><strong>流动性比头条更重要</strong></p>
<p>在充足的流动性下，数字代币蓬勃发展。当资金流入市场时，价格上涨，买家在没有太多阻力的情况下推动市场。</p>
<p>另一方面，当流动性减弱时，即使是小规模的卖出活动也会显著影响价格。</p>
<p>过去几轮交易可以证明这一点。</p>
<p>尽管加密货币交易所交易基金（ETFs）录得了可观的资金流入，但在美联储未准备承诺长期流动性后，趋势迅速转变。</p>
<p>比特币 ETF 在 12 月 10 日（FOMC 会议日）录得 2.24 亿美元的流入，次日则转为负值。</p>
<p>SoSoValue 数据显示，比特币基金在 12 月 11 日录得了 7734 万美元的流出。</p>
<p>影响是什么？加密市场出现波动、下跌和不可预测的价格波动。</p>
<p>即使是模因代币也损失了数十亿美元，因为投机交易者撤退。</p>
<p><strong>为何波动如此剧烈？</strong></p>
<p>流动性不足意味着价格波动更大。</p>
<p>交易活动的减少，无论是由于风险规避情绪、机构的不确定性，还是假期放缓，都会缩小市场深度。</p>
<p>风险资产对这种情况非常敏感。</p>
<p>单笔鲸鱼交易可以引发 5% 的价格波动，而突发的 ETF 资金流出则可能引发大幅横盘波动。</p>
<p>此外，像鲍威尔这样的高层人物的评论可以在几分钟内引发波动。</p>
<p><strong>低流动性下的交易者策略</strong></p>
<p>暂时忘记复杂的指标。</p>
<p>当前市场需要一种战略性的方法，理解流动性如何影响市场情绪。</p>
<p>以下是如何在当前加密货币环境中导航。</p>
<p>首先，在尘埃落定后再行动。追逐初始走势是最糟糕的事情之一。</p>
<p>最新趋势已经证明了这一点。例如，比特币在降息后飙升，但几分钟后又暴跌。</p>
<p>其次，缺乏足够成交量的价格行为毫无意义。市场恶化会产生虚假的反弹，困住交易者。</p>
<p>最后但同样重要的是，在波动市场中小额入场很重要。</p>
<p>精明的交易者绝不会全仓进场，而是会在波动加剧时逐步加仓。现在最好的事情是做好准备。</p>
<p>聪明的钱在战略性地买入下跌，因为市场在流动性复苏后准备迎接下一次大幅波动。</p>
<p>与此同时，有一点是明确的：加密货币不再仅仅受关键头条的影响，而是流动性预期。</p>

<p>尽管最近美联储降息，加密货币仍面临看跌趋势，原因在于流动性减弱。市场对美联储主席鲍威尔在通胀和劳动力市场上的鹰派言论反应消极，导致卖压增加。流动性预期而非新闻头条对加密货币的走势至关重要。建议交易者采取战略性行动，关注流动性影响，避免虚假反弹。聪明资金正在逢低买入，预期未来流动性将恢复</p>

<p>Digital currencies are experiencing significant bearishness, with faded liquidity preventing upsides and accelerating every dip.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数字货币正经历显著的下跌，流动性减弱阻碍了上涨，并加速了每一次下跌。</p>
</div><p>Cryptocurrencies remained unmistakably cautious the past week, with major headlines failing to spark rallies, at least as analysts and traders expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一周，加密货币明显保持谨慎，主要头条未能激发反弹，至少没有达到分析师和交易者的预期。</p>
</div><p><strong>The rate cut that failed to lift crypto</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>未能提振加密货币的降息</strong></p>
</div><p>All eyes remained on the December 10 FOMC this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>本周所有目光仍集中在 12 月 10 日的 FOMC 会议上。</p>
</div><p>You will expect a rate cut to bolster the entire crypto space, especially due to the forecasted Q4 bull runs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你会期待降息能提振整个加密货币市场，特别是由于预测的第四季度牛市。</p>
</div><p>Generally, lower borrowing costs and new liquidity renew interest in risk-on assets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通常，较低的借贷成本和新的流动性会重新激发对风险资产的兴趣。</p>
</div><p>However, that was not the script this week.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，本周的情况并非如此。</p>
</div><p>Cryptos soared briefly after the Fed executed the awaited 25-basis-point cut, but lost steam quickly as BTC failed to overcome the crucial resistance between $92,000 and $94,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在美联储实施预期中的 25 个基点降息后，加密货币短暂飙升，但由于比特币未能突破 92,000 美元至 94,000 美元之间的关键阻力位，迅速失去动力。</p>
</div><p>Why the surprise/disappointing performance? While the rate cut was bullish, markets reacted to the Fed Chair’s tone.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>为何表现令人惊讶/失望？尽管降息是利好，但市场对美联储主席的语气做出了反应。</p>
</div><p>Notably, Jerome Powell emphasised lingering high inflation and deteriorated labour markets, hinting that the central bank isn’t prepared to reopen liquidity taps sooner than anticipated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>值得注意的是，杰罗姆·鲍威尔强调了持续的高通胀和恶化的劳动力市场，暗示中央银行并不准备比预期更早地重新开放流动性。</p>
</div><p>Wise Advice@wiseadvicesumit·Followhttps://twitter.com/wiseadvicesumit/status/1999075220813156775Replying to @wiseadvicesumit</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Wise Advice@wiseadvicesumit·关注 https://twitter.com/wiseadvicesumit/status/1999075220813156775 回复 @wiseadvicesumit</p>
</div><p>POWELL’S TONE WAS HAWKISHPowell doubled down on risks: ✓ Employment downside risks rising ✓ Inflation still elevated ✓ Goods inflation picking back up ✓ Rates now in a “plausible neutral range” but cuts likely on pauseMarkets hated it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鲍威尔的语气偏鹰派鲍威尔重申了风险：✓ 就业下行风险上升 ✓ 通胀仍然高企 ✓ 商品通胀回升 ✓ 利率现在处于 “合理中性区间”，但降息可能暂停市场对此反应强烈。</p>
</div><p>Watch on TwitterView replies4:44 pm · 11 Dec 2025https://help.twitter.com/en/twitter-for-websites-ads-info-and-privacy17ReplyCopy linkRead 3 replies</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 Twitter 上查看回复 2025 年 12 月 11 日下午 4:44https://help.twitter.com/en/twitter-for-websites-ads-info-and-privacy17 回复复制链接查看 3 条回复</p>
</div><p>Also, new projections suggested that we may have only one rate cut in the coming year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，新预测表明我们在未来一年内可能只有一次降息。</p>
</div><p>The hawkish tone triggered selling pressure in risk assets, even after a rate cut.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>鹰派语气在降息后仍然对风险资产施加了卖压。</p>
</div><p>Nevertheless, nothing is new. Such trends have repeated after recent meetings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，这并不新鲜。这种趋势在最近的会议后反复出现。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin plunged in mid-2023 during a week that experienced slowed inflation, going against analysts’ expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币在 2023 年中旬暴跌，尽管当时通胀放缓，违背了分析师的预期。</p>
</div><p>BTC lost roughly 40% in a day in March 2020 amidst aggressive fiat printing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在 2020 年 3 月，比特币在激进的法币印刷中一天内损失了大约 40%。</p>
</div><p>Therefore, markets do not respond to policies only.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，市场并不仅仅对政策做出反应。</p>
</div><p>What matters the most is how much liquidity market players expect in the coming sessions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最重要的是市场参与者对未来几轮流动性的预期。</p>
</div><p><strong>Liquidity is crucial than headlines</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>流动性比头条更重要</strong></p>
</div><p>Digital tokens flourish during adequate liquidity. Prices surge when money enters the market, and buyers move the market without much resistance.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在充足的流动性下，数字代币蓬勃发展。当资金流入市场时，价格上涨，买家在没有太多阻力的情况下推动市场。</p>
</div><p>On the other hand, even minor selling activities can significantly influence prices when liquidity fades.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>另一方面，当流动性减弱时，即使是小规模的卖出活动也会显著影响价格。</p>
</div><p>The past few sessions can testify to that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去几轮交易可以证明这一点。</p>
</div><p>While crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded considerable inflows, the trend shifted swiftly after the indication that the Fed wasn’t ready to commit to long-term liquidity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管加密货币交易所交易基金（ETFs）录得了可观的资金流入，但在美联储未准备承诺长期流动性后，趋势迅速转变。</p>
</div><p>Bitcoin ETFs saw inflows amounting to $224 million on December 10 (the FOMC day) and flipped negative the following day.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>比特币 ETF 在 12 月 10 日（FOMC 会议日）录得 2.24 亿美元的流入，次日则转为负值。</p>
</div><p>SoSoValue data shows BTC funds logged $77.34 million in outflows on December 11.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>SoSoValue 数据显示，比特币基金在 12 月 11 日录得了 7734 万美元的流出。</p>
</div><p>The impact? Choppy, bearish, and unpredictable price movements across the crypto board.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>影响是什么？加密市场出现波动、下跌和不可预测的价格波动。</p>
</div><p>Even meme tokens lost billions as speculative traders retreated.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>即使是模因代币也损失了数十亿美元，因为投机交易者撤退。</p>
</div><p><strong>Why the intense volatility?</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>为何波动如此剧烈？</strong></p>
</div><p>Well, low liquidity translates to sharper swings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>流动性不足意味着价格波动更大。</p>
</div><p>Faded trader activity, whether due to risk-off mood, uncertainty among institutions, or holiday slowdowns, shrinks market depth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>交易活动的减少，无论是由于风险规避情绪、机构的不确定性，还是假期放缓，都会缩小市场深度。</p>
</div><p>Risk assets are sensitive to such cases.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>风险资产对这种情况非常敏感。</p>
</div><p>A single whale transaction can catalyse a 5% price move, whereas sudden ETF outflows can trigger substantial sideways action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>单笔鲸鱼交易可以引发 5% 的价格波动，而突发的 ETF 资金流出则可能引发大幅横盘波动。</p>
</div><p>Also, comments from top figures like Powell can spark volatility within minutes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，像鲍威尔这样的高层人物的评论可以在几分钟内引发波动。</p>
</div><p><strong>The trader playbook during low liquidity</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>低流动性下的交易者策略</strong></p>
</div><p>Forget about complicated indicators for now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>暂时忘记复杂的指标。</p>
</div><p>The current market needs a strategic approach and understanding of how liquidity influences market sentiments.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当前市场需要一种战略性的方法，理解流动性如何影响市场情绪。</p>
</div><p>Here’s how to navigate the current crypto landscape.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>以下是如何在当前加密货币环境中导航。</p>
</div><p>Firstly, move after the dust settles. One of the worst things can be chasing the initial move.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>首先，在尘埃落定后再行动。追逐初始走势是最糟糕的事情之一。</p>
</div><p>The latest trends have proved it. For instance, BTC price soared after the rate cut, only to dump minutes later.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最新趋势已经证明了这一点。例如，比特币在降息后飙升，但几分钟后又暴跌。</p>
</div><p>Secondly, price actions without adequate volumes are nothing. Deteriorated markets print false rallies that trap traders.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其次，缺乏足够成交量的价格行为毫无意义。市场恶化会产生虚假的反弹，困住交易者。</p>
</div><p>Last but not least, small entries matter during choppy markets.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>最后但同样重要的是，在波动市场中小额入场很重要。</p>
</div><p>Savvy traders will never go all-in. Rather, they scale slowly while navigating volatility surges. The best thing now is to prepare.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>精明的交易者绝不会全仓进场，而是会在波动加剧时逐步加仓。现在最好的事情是做好准备。</p>
</div><p>Smart money is strategically buying dips as markets brace for the next massive move after liquidity resurgence.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>聪明的钱在战略性地买入下跌，因为市场在流动性复苏后准备迎接下一次大幅波动。</p>
</div><p>Meanwhile, one thing is clear: crypto is no longer moving on crucial headlines, but liquidity expectations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，有一点是明确的：加密货币不再仅仅受关键头条的影响，而是流动性预期。</p>
</div>

交易者指南：为何美联储的流动性信号对加密货币的重要性空前