<ul>
<li>想知道在经历了巨大的涨幅后，ASML Holding 是否仍然值得购买，或者现在是否明智的做法是等待更好的入场时机？</li>
<li>该股票在过去一周下跌了 2.8%，但在过去一个月仍上涨了 3.8%，年初至今上涨了 34.1%，过去一年上涨了 35.9%，进一步巩固了其长期增长的故事。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在 ASML 在提供先进光刻工具方面的主导地位，以及对中国持续出口限制的影响，投资者对此密切关注。同时，人工智能数据中心和高性能计算等长期主题也使其技术的需求预期始终处于聚光灯下。</li>
<li>目前，ASML 在我们的低估检查中得分为 3 分（满分 6 分），这表明市场可能部分考虑了其优势，但并未完全反映。接下来，我们将深入探讨不同的估值方法对该股票的看法，然后以更实用的方式思考 ASML 的真实价值。</li>
</ul>
<p>ASML Holding 在过去一年中实现了 35.9% 的回报。看看这与半导体行业的其他公司相比如何。</p>
<h3>方法一：ASML Holding 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来的现金流并将其折现回今天，来估算企业的价值。对于 ASML Holding，该模型采用基于现金流预测的两阶段自由现金流到股东的方法。</p>
<p>ASML 在过去 12 个月产生了约 86 亿欧元的自由现金流，分析师预计这一数字将稳步上升，Simply Wall St 预测到 2035 年将达到约 230 亿欧元。这些预测反映了随着对支持人工智能和高性能芯片的先进光刻工具需求的增长，强劲的预期增长。</p>
<p>当这些未来现金流折现回今天时，DCF 模型得出的每股内在价值约为 704 欧元。与当前市场价格相比，这意味着 ASML 在现金流基础上大约被高估了 31.4%，暗示市场已经在定价一个非常乐观的增长路径。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明 ASML Holding 可能被高估了 31.4%。发现 907 只被低估的股票或创建您自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 ASML 折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 ASML Holding 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法二：ASML Holding 市盈率与收益</h3>
<p>对于像 ASML 这样的盈利企业，市盈率是判断估值的一个有用方式，因为它将投资者支付的价格直接与公司产生的利润联系起来。一般来说，增长较快和风险较低的公司可以合理化更高的市盈率。相反，增长较慢或不确定性较高的公司通常需要较低、更保守的倍数。</p>
<p>ASML 目前的市盈率约为 37.9 倍。这高于大多数半导体行业的平均水平约 34.7 倍，但低于同行组的平均水平约 42.4 倍。进一步说，Simply Wall St 为 ASML 计算了一个专有的公允比率为 43.0 倍，这反映了其特定的盈利增长、盈利能力、行业定位、市值和风险特征。这一量身定制的公允比率比简单地与同行或行业进行比较更具洞察力，因为它调整了使 ASML 与众不同的特征，而不是假设所有芯片股票都应享有相同的倍数。</p>
<p>ASML 的市盈率为 37.9 倍，而估计的公允比率为 43.0 倍，因此该股票在市盈率基础上显得略微被低估。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 ENXTAM:ASML 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1448 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
<h3>升级您的决策：选择您的 ASML Holding 叙述</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向您介绍叙述，这是一种简单的框架，可以让您将对 ASML Holding 的看法转化为一个由公允价值、收入增长、收益和利润率等数字支持的故事。叙述将您对企业的看法（例如人工智能需求、出口风险或竞争威胁）与财务预测和公允价值估算联系起来，这样您就可以清楚地看到您的假设如何转化为买入、持有或卖出的立场。在 Simply Wall St，叙述易于使用，并且存在于社区页面，数百万投资者可以建立和比较他们的观点，然后快速检查他们的公允价值是否高于或低于今天的价格。由于叙述会随着新的收益、新闻或指导的到来而动态更新，您对 ASML 的看法永远不会过时，您可以实时调整您的决策。例如，一个 ASML 叙述可能会将公允价值视为约 500 欧元，伴随谨慎的增长，而另一个可能会在更强的人工智能和高 NA 采用假设下看到超过 1000 欧元的公允价值，这两者可以共存并随着新数据的到来而演变。</p>
<p>然而，对于 ASML Holding，我们将为您提供两个领先的 ASML Holding 叙述的预览：</p>
<p><strong>🐂 ASML Holding 牛市案例</strong></p>
<p>公允价值：€1,000.00</p>
<p>与最后收盘价相比的隐含低估：-7.5%</p>
<p>预测收入增长：17.26%</p>
<ul>
<li>将 ASML 视为长期复合增长者，在 EUV 工具方面拥有垄断地位，推动人工智能、智能手机和数据中心的先进芯片。</li>
<li>突出 2025 年第二季度的强劲执行、不断增长的订单积压和高利润的经常性服务收入，平滑了周期。</li>
<li>将最近的股价疲软和管理层对短期谨慎的指导视为耐心投资者的买入机会。</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>🐻 ASML Holding 熊市案例</strong></p>
<p>公允价值：€864.91</p>
<p>与最后收盘价相比的隐含高估：7.0%</p>
<p>预测收入增长：9.65%</p>
<ul>
<li>强调 ASML 在极紫外光（EUV）领域的主导地位和强劲的增长前景已被市场广泛认可。</li>
<li>指出地缘政治紧张局势、出口管制以及中国推动半导体自给自足作为中期战略风险。</li>
<li>认为在高昂的前瞻市盈率下，投资者可能在为完美支付溢价，当前价格留下的安全边际有限。</li>
</ul>
<p>你认为 ASML Holding 还有更多故事吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1044" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>ENXTAM:ASML 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
<p><em>这篇文章来自 Simply Wall St，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不构成财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 对提到的任何股票没有持仓。</em></p>
<p>用于国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
<p>下一波机器人技术不是类人机器人，而是能够在 30 分钟内在任何地方提供 5G、ISR 和雷达的全自动塔。</p>
<p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
<p>由 CiTech 赞助</p>

阿斯麦

ASME

<p>ASML 控股的股票表现出强劲的增长，但面临来自中国出口限制的挑战。尽管最近有所下跌，但年初至今仍保持上涨。投资分析表明，基于现金流折现（DCF）模型，ASML 的估值被高估了 31.4%，但在市盈率（PE）基础上则略显低估。对人工智能和高性能计算的长期需求支撑了其增长。建议投资者考虑估值叙述，以做出明智的决策</p>

<ul>
<li>Wondering if ASML Holding is still worth buying after its huge run, or if the smart move now is to wait for a better entry point?</li>
<li>The stock has slipped 2.8% over the last week but is still up 3.8% over the past month, with a hefty 34.1% gain year to date and 35.9% over the last year, reinforcing its long term growth story.</li>
<li>Recent headlines have focused on ASML's dominant role in supplying advanced lithography tools for cutting edge chips and the impact of ongoing export restrictions to China, which investors are watching closely. At the same time, long term themes like AI data centers and high performance computing are keeping demand expectations for its technology firmly in the spotlight.</li>
<li>Right now, ASML scores a 3 out of 6 on our undervaluation checks, which suggests the market might be partially pricing in its strengths but not fully. Next, we will dig into what different valuation methods say about the stock and then finish with an even more practical way to think about ASML's true value.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>想知道在经历了巨大的涨幅后，ASML Holding 是否仍然值得购买，或者现在是否明智的做法是等待更好的入场时机？</li>
<li>该股票在过去一周下跌了 2.8%，但在过去一个月仍上涨了 3.8%，年初至今上涨了 34.1%，过去一年上涨了 35.9%，进一步巩固了其长期增长的故事。</li>
<li>最近的头条新闻集中在 ASML 在提供先进光刻工具方面的主导地位，以及对中国持续出口限制的影响，投资者对此密切关注。同时，人工智能数据中心和高性能计算等长期主题也使其技术的需求预期始终处于聚光灯下。</li>
<li>目前，ASML 在我们的低估检查中得分为 3 分（满分 6 分），这表明市场可能部分考虑了其优势，但并未完全反映。接下来，我们将深入探讨不同的估值方法对该股票的看法，然后以更实用的方式思考 ASML 的真实价值。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>ASML Holding delivered 35.9% returns over the last year. See how this stacks up to the rest of the Semiconductor industry.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML Holding 在过去一年中实现了 35.9% 的回报。看看这与半导体行业的其他公司相比如何。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: ASML Holding Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法一：ASML Holding 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back to today, using a required rate of return. For ASML Holding, the model uses a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach based on cash flow projections.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流模型通过预测企业未来的现金流并将其折现回今天，来估算企业的价值。对于 ASML Holding，该模型采用基于现金流预测的两阶段自由现金流到股东的方法。</p>
</div><p>ASML generated trailing twelve month free cash flow of about €8.6 billion, and analysts expect this to rise steadily, with Simply Wall St extrapolating to roughly €23.0 billion by 2035. These projections reflect strong anticipated growth as demand builds for advanced lithography tools supporting AI and high performance chips.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 在过去 12 个月产生了约 86 亿欧元的自由现金流，分析师预计这一数字将稳步上升，Simply Wall St 预测到 2035 年将达到约 230 亿欧元。这些预测反映了随着对支持人工智能和高性能芯片的先进光刻工具需求的增长，强劲的预期增长。</p>
</div><p>When these future cash flows are discounted back to today, the DCF model arrives at an estimated intrinsic value of about €704 per share. Compared with the current market price, this implies ASML is roughly 31.4% overvalued on a cash flow basis, suggesting the market is already pricing in a very optimistic growth path.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当这些未来现金流折现回今天时，DCF 模型得出的每股内在价值约为 704 欧元。与当前市场价格相比，这意味着 ASML 在现金流基础上大约被高估了 31.4%，暗示市场已经在定价一个非常乐观的增长路径。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests ASML Holding may be overvalued by 31.4%. Discover 907 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明 ASML Holding 可能被高估了 31.4%。发现 907 只被低估的股票或创建您自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>ASML Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 ASML 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for ASML Holding.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 ASML Holding 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: ASML Holding Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法二：ASML Holding 市盈率与收益</h3>
</div><p>For profitable businesses like ASML, the Price to Earnings ratio is a useful way to judge valuation because it links what investors pay directly to the profits the company generates. In general, faster growing and lower risk companies can justify a higher PE ratio. In contrast, slower growth or higher uncertainty usually calls for a lower, more conservative multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像 ASML 这样的盈利企业，市盈率是判断估值的一个有用方式，因为它将投资者支付的价格直接与公司产生的利润联系起来。一般来说，增长较快和风险较低的公司可以合理化更高的市盈率。相反，增长较慢或不确定性较高的公司通常需要较低、更保守的倍数。</p>
</div><p>ASML currently trades on a PE of about 37.9x. That sits above the broader Semiconductor industry average of roughly 34.7x, but below the peer group average of around 42.4x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 43.0x for ASML, which reflects its specific mix of earnings growth, profitability, industry positioning, market cap and risk profile. This tailored Fair Ratio is more insightful than a blunt comparison to peers or the sector because it adjusts for the characteristics that make ASML different rather than assuming all chip stocks deserve the same multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 目前的市盈率约为 37.9 倍。这高于大多数半导体行业的平均水平约 34.7 倍，但低于同行组的平均水平约 42.4 倍。进一步说，Simply Wall St 为 ASML 计算了一个专有的公允比率为 43.0 倍，这反映了其特定的盈利增长、盈利能力、行业定位、市值和风险特征。这一量身定制的公允比率比简单地与同行或行业进行比较更具洞察力，因为它调整了使 ASML 与众不同的特征，而不是假设所有芯片股票都应享有相同的倍数。</p>
</div><p>With ASML trading at 37.9x versus an estimated Fair Ratio of 43.0x, the shares appear modestly undervalued on a PE basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ASML 的市盈率为 37.9 倍，而估计的公允比率为 43.0 倍，因此该股票在市盈率基础上显得略微被低估。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>ENXTAM:ASML PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 ENXTAM:ASML 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1448 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1448 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your ASML Holding Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>升级您的决策：选择您的 ASML Holding 叙述</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework that lets you turn your view of ASML Holding into a story backed by numbers like fair value, revenue growth, earnings and margins. A Narrative links what you believe about the business, for example AI demand, export risks or competitive threats, to a financial forecast and then to a fair value estimate, so you can clearly see how your assumptions translate into a buy, hold or sell stance. On Simply Wall St, Narratives are easy to use and live inside the Community page, where millions of investors can build and compare their views, then quickly check whether their Fair Value is above or below today’s Price. Because Narratives update dynamically as new earnings, news or guidance arrive, your view of ASML never goes stale and you can adjust your decisions in real time. For example, one ASML Narrative might see fair value at about €500 with cautious growth, while another might see more than €1,000 on stronger AI and High NA adoption assumptions, and both can coexist and evolve as new data comes in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向您介绍叙述，这是一种简单的框架，可以让您将对 ASML Holding 的看法转化为一个由公允价值、收入增长、收益和利润率等数字支持的故事。叙述将您对企业的看法（例如人工智能需求、出口风险或竞争威胁）与财务预测和公允价值估算联系起来，这样您就可以清楚地看到您的假设如何转化为买入、持有或卖出的立场。在 Simply Wall St，叙述易于使用，并且存在于社区页面，数百万投资者可以建立和比较他们的观点，然后快速检查他们的公允价值是否高于或低于今天的价格。由于叙述会随着新的收益、新闻或指导的到来而动态更新，您对 ASML 的看法永远不会过时，您可以实时调整您的决策。例如，一个 ASML 叙述可能会将公允价值视为约 500 欧元，伴随谨慎的增长，而另一个可能会在更强的人工智能和高 NA 采用假设下看到超过 1000 欧元的公允价值，这两者可以共存并随着新数据的到来而演变。</p>
</div><p>For ASML Holding, however, we will make it really easy for you with previews of two leading ASML Holding Narratives:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，对于 ASML Holding，我们将为您提供两个领先的 ASML Holding 叙述的预览：</p>
</div><p><strong>🐂 ASML Holding Bull Case</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>🐂 ASML Holding 牛市案例</strong></p>
</div><p>Fair Value: €1,000.00</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公允价值：€1,000.00</p>
</div><p>Implied Undervaluation vs Last Close: -7.5%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与最后收盘价相比的隐含低估：-7.5%</p>
</div><p>Forecast Revenue Growth: 17.26%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测收入增长：17.26%</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Frames ASML as a long term compounder with a monopoly in EUV tools that power advanced chips for AI, smartphones and data centers.</li>
<li>Highlights strong Q2 2025 execution, a growing backlog and high margin recurring service revenue that smooths the cycle.</li>
<li>Views recent share price weakness and management’s cautious near term guidance as a buy the dip opportunity for patient investors.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>将 ASML 视为长期复合增长者，在 EUV 工具方面拥有垄断地位，推动人工智能、智能手机和数据中心的先进芯片。</li>
<li>突出 2025 年第二季度的强劲执行、不断增长的订单积压和高利润的经常性服务收入，平滑了周期。</li>
<li>将最近的股价疲软和管理层对短期谨慎的指导视为耐心投资者的买入机会。</li>
</ul>
</div><p><strong>🐻 ASML Holding Bear Case</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>🐻 ASML Holding 熊市案例</strong></p>
</div><p>Fair Value: €864.91</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>公允价值：€864.91</p>
</div><p>Implied Overvaluation vs Last Close: 7.0%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与最后收盘价相比的隐含高估：7.0%</p>
</div><p>Forecast Revenue Growth: 9.65%</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预测收入增长：9.65%</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Emphasizes that ASML’s dominant EUV position and strong growth outlook are already well recognized by the market.</li>
<li>Points to geopolitical tension, export controls and China’s push for semiconductor self sufficiency as medium term strategic risks.</li>
<li>Argues that at a rich forward PE multiple, investors may be paying up for perfection, leaving limited margin of safety at current prices.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>强调 ASML 在极紫外光（EUV）领域的主导地位和强劲的增长前景已被市场广泛认可。</li>
<li>指出地缘政治紧张局势、出口管制以及中国推动半导体自给自足作为中期战略风险。</li>
<li>认为在高昂的前瞻市盈率下，投资者可能在为完美支付溢价，当前价格留下的安全边际有限。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for ASML Holding? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为 ASML Holding 还有更多故事吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/c344c3ca-7ee5-40c2-8de8-b1cb37c1c5fc/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>ENXTAM:ASML 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ENXTAM:ASML 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇文章来自 Simply Wall St，内容具有一般性。<strong>我们提供基于历史数据和分析师预测的评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不构成财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 对提到的任何股票没有持仓。</em></p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>用于国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
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在经历了 2025 年的强劲反弹以及面临中国市场阻力之后，现在考虑投资 ASML 是否为时已晚？