<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="605" height="340" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
<p>在甲骨文发布财报的前 24 小时，有人以恰好一个行权价购买了 24,000 份看跌期权：$190。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152529.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="773" height="108" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152529.png"/></p>
<p>第二天早上，甲骨文股价跳空下跌，正好停在那个位置。这是运气吗？内幕消息吗？都不是。他们只是理解了大多数交易者在财报失望后对股票行为的忽视。</p>
<h3><strong>无人谈论的布局</strong></h3>
<p>甲骨文在财报前上涨。股价从 190 上涨到 210，受到了财报前的动能推动。分析师们持乐观态度。但考虑一下可能的结果：</p>
<ul>
<li>如果甲骨文意外向上，股价可能上涨 5%。这个涨幅在价格中已经基本反映出来。上行空间有限。</li>
<li>如果甲骨文失望，股价将迅速回落至 190。所有预期的收益将蒸发。你将在一个过夜跳空中失去整个财报前的涨幅。</li>
</ul>
<p>数学是不对称的。上行空间限制在大约 5%。下行则是干净的 10% 回到之前的支撑位。而且下行会更快更猛烈地到来。</p>
<h3><strong>为什么$190 很重要</strong></h3>
<p>$190 这个水平是甲骨文在财报前上涨之前的交易价格。它是一个自然支撑位。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152533.png?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="782" height="505" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152533.png"/></p>
<p>当股票在财报前上涨后失望时，它们不会逐渐下跌。它们通常会跳空回到起始位置。这种情况反复发生。</p>
<p>Ghost Prints 监控控制台标记了在那个确切行权价的 24,000 份看跌期权。有人为均值回归进行了布局。这不是崩盘。也不是内幕消息。只是认识到$190 这个水平是如果消息失望，股票将落到的地方。</p>
<p>看跌期权并没有导致股价停在$190。看跌期权是在那里布局的，因为成熟的交易者理解这是均值回归将带它到达的地方。</p>
<h3><strong>打印实际上告诉了我们什么</strong></h3>
<p>这就是如何解读机构流动。你不是在寻找知道财报数字的人。你是在寻找围绕不对称结果的布局。</p>
<p>打印揭示了哪个动作会更大。不是哪个方向是保证的。偏斜倾向于下行 - 更大的幅度，更快的移动，更清晰的目标。正如我在交易时段所说：“这会完美吗？不，没有什么是 100% 的。我们只是试图让自己处于那个位置。”</p>
<h3><strong>伽马如何加速移动</strong></h3>
<p>甲骨文未能达标。股价跳空下跌。然后机制开始发挥作用。那 24,000 份看跌期权向着行权价移动。卖出这些合约的市场做市商不得不通过做空股票来对冲他们的风险敞口。</p>
<p>随着甲骨文股价向$190 下跌，对冲需求增加。更多的卖压。伽马挤压加速了向已经反映在价格中的目标的下跌。</p>
<p>期权并没有决定目的地。它们加速了到达一个基本均值回归已经指向的水平的过程。</p>
<h3><strong>台湾半导体制造的不同之处</strong></h3>
<p>台湾半导体制造显示出不同的布局。有人在股票接近$200 的高位时购买了 8,000 份$175 的看跌期权。同样的方向性押注。完全不同的布局。</p>
<p>我特别注意到台湾半导体的看跌期权缺乏伽马挤压的潜力。在$175 时，股票在$200，这些看跌期权的 delta 大约为 0.03。几乎不需要对冲。没有反馈循环。</p>
<p>台湾半导体的打印反映了情绪 - 有人想要下行保护。但没有有意义的 delta，就没有机械压力将股票拉向那个行权价。</p>
<p>并不是每个看跌期权的打印都会创造一个目标。甲骨文的布局是特定的：看跌期权接近之前的支撑位，在跳空后接近行权价，具有足够的 delta 来迫使对冲。台湾半导体没有这种情况。</p>
<h3><strong>框架，而不是预测</strong></h3>
<p>打印并不预测结果。它揭示了在概率不对称时哪个结果提供更好的风险回报。</p>
<p>甲骨文验证了这个框架：识别自然回归水平，认识到期权布局与该水平一致，并理解伽马可以加速但并不决定方向。</p>
<p>目标不是预测。是概率。甲骨文展示了当偏斜、布局和基本面一致时会发生什么。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>在想要你死的市场中生存</p>
<p>人工智能恐惧升级并开始蔓延</p>
<p>布莱克刚刚发现美联储的真正赢家</p>

甲骨文

<p>这篇文章讨论了期权交易者在甲骨文财报发布前的战略定位，强调了 190 美元水平作为自然支撑的重要性。交易者在这一行权价购买了 24,000 份看跌期权，预计如果甲骨文的财报令人失望，将会出现均值回归。由于市场做市商对其头寸进行对冲，股票下跌至 190 美元，形成了伽马挤压。这一情景展示了期权定位如何与基本面水平相结合，加速股票波动，强调了概率而非预测的重要性</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg" alt="" original-src="https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/12/13/22/15/chart-1905225__340.jpg"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pixabay</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pixabay</em></p>
</div><p>24 hours before Oracle's earnings, someone bought 24,000 puts at exactly one strike: $190.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在甲骨文发布财报的前 24 小时，有人以恰好一个行权价购买了 24,000 份看跌期权：$190。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152529.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152529.png"/></p>
<p>The next morning, Oracle gapped down and stopped right there. Was it luck? Insider knowledge? Neither. They just understood something most traders miss about how stocks behave after disappointing earnings.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第二天早上，甲骨文股价跳空下跌，正好停在那个位置。这是运气吗？内幕消息吗？都不是。他们只是理解了大多数交易者在财报失望后对股票行为的忽视。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Setup Nobody Talked About</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>无人谈论的布局</strong></h3>
</div><p>Oracle rallied into earnings. The stock climbed from 190 to 210 on pre-earnings momentum. Analysts were bullish. But consider the possible outcomes:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文在财报前上涨。股价从 190 上涨到 210，受到了财报前的动能推动。分析师们持乐观态度。但考虑一下可能的结果：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>If Oracle surprises to the upside, maybe the stock rallies 5%. That move is largely baked into the price already. Limited upside.</li>
<li>If Oracle disappoints, the stock snaps back to 190. All that anticipated gain evaporates. You give back the entire pre-earnings rally in one overnight gap.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果甲骨文意外向上，股价可能上涨 5%。这个涨幅在价格中已经基本反映出来。上行空间有限。</li>
<li>如果甲骨文失望，股价将迅速回落至 190。所有预期的收益将蒸发。你将在一个过夜跳空中失去整个财报前的涨幅。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The math was asymmetric. Upside capped at around 5%. Downside was a clean 10% back to prior support. And the downside would hit faster and harder.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>数学是不对称的。上行空间限制在大约 5%。下行则是干净的 10% 回到之前的支撑位。而且下行会更快更猛烈地到来。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Why $190 Mattered</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>为什么$190 很重要</strong></h3>
</div><p>That $190 level was where Oracle traded before the pre-earnings rally started. It was natural support.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>$190 这个水平是甲骨文在财报前上涨之前的交易价格。它是一个自然支撑位。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152533.png" alt="" original-src="https://theotrade.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Screenshot-2025-12-12-152533.png"/></p>
<p>When stocks disappoint after running into earnings, they don't drift lower gradually. They often gap back to where they started. This happens repeatedly.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当股票在财报前上涨后失望时，它们不会逐渐下跌。它们通常会跳空回到起始位置。这种情况反复发生。</p>
</div><p>The Ghost Prints Surveillance Console flagged 24,000 puts at that exact strike. Someone positioned for mean reversion. This was not a crash. Not insider knowledge. Just recognition that the $190 level was where the stock would land if the news disappointed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Ghost Prints 监控控制台标记了在那个确切行权价的 24,000 份看跌期权。有人为均值回归进行了布局。这不是崩盘。也不是内幕消息。只是认识到$190 这个水平是如果消息失望，股票将落到的地方。</p>
</div><p>The puts didn't cause the stock to stop at $190. The puts were positioned there because sophisticated traders understood that's where mean reversion would take it.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>看跌期权并没有导致股价停在$190。看跌期权是在那里布局的，因为成熟的交易者理解这是均值回归将带它到达的地方。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What the Print Actually Told Us</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>打印实际上告诉了我们什么</strong></h3>
</div><p>This is how you read institutional flow. You're not looking for someone who knows the earnings numbers. You're looking for positioning around asymmetric outcomes.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这就是如何解读机构流动。你不是在寻找知道财报数字的人。你是在寻找围绕不对称结果的布局。</p>
</div><p>The print revealed which move would be bigger. Not which direction was guaranteed. The skew favored the downside - larger magnitude, faster move, cleaner target. As I said during the trading session: &#34;Is it gonna be perfect? No, nothing is 100%. We're just trying to put ourselves in that position.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>打印揭示了哪个动作会更大。不是哪个方向是保证的。偏斜倾向于下行 - 更大的幅度，更快的移动，更清晰的目标。正如我在交易时段所说：“这会完美吗？不，没有什么是 100% 的。我们只是试图让自己处于那个位置。”</p>
</div><h3><strong>How Gamma Accelerated the Move</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>伽马如何加速移动</strong></h3>
</div><p>Oracle missed. The stock gapped lower. Then the mechanics kicked in. Those 24,000 puts moved toward the money. Market makers who sold those contracts had to hedge their exposure by shorting shares.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文未能达标。股价跳空下跌。然后机制开始发挥作用。那 24,000 份看跌期权向着行权价移动。卖出这些合约的市场做市商不得不通过做空股票来对冲他们的风险敞口。</p>
</div><p>As Oracle dropped toward $190, hedging requirements increased. More selling pressure. The gamma squeeze accelerated the decline toward the target that was already baked in.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>随着甲骨文股价向$190 下跌，对冲需求增加。更多的卖压。伽马挤压加速了向已经反映在价格中的目标的下跌。</p>
</div><p>The options didn't determine the destination. They accelerated the journey to a level that fundamental mean reversion was already pointing toward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>期权并没有决定目的地。它们加速了到达一个基本均值回归已经指向的水平的过程。</p>
</div><h3><strong>What's Different About Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>台湾半导体制造的不同之处</strong></h3>
</div><p>Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing showed different positioning. Someone bought 8,000 puts at the $175 strike while the stock traded near highs around $200. Same directional bet. Different setup entirely.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台湾半导体制造显示出不同的布局。有人在股票接近$200 的高位时购买了 8,000 份$175 的看跌期权。同样的方向性押注。完全不同的布局。</p>
</div><p>I specifically noted that the Taiwan Semiconductor puts lacked gamma squeeze potential. At $175 with the stock at $200, those puts had roughly 0.03 delta. Almost no hedging required. No feedback loop.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我特别注意到台湾半导体的看跌期权缺乏伽马挤压的潜力。在$175 时，股票在$200，这些看跌期权的 delta 大约为 0.03。几乎不需要对冲。没有反馈循环。</p>
</div><p>The Taiwan Semiconductor print reflects sentiment - someone wants downside protection. But without meaningful delta, there's no mechanical pressure pulling the stock toward that strike.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>台湾半导体的打印反映了情绪 - 有人想要下行保护。但没有有意义的 delta，就没有机械压力将股票拉向那个行权价。</p>
</div><p>Not every put print creates a target. The Oracle setup was specific: puts near prior support, close to the money after a gap, with enough delta to force hedging. Taiwan Semiconductor doesn't have that.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>并不是每个看跌期权的打印都会创造一个目标。甲骨文的布局是特定的：看跌期权接近之前的支撑位，在跳空后接近行权价，具有足够的 delta 来迫使对冲。台湾半导体没有这种情况。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Framework, Not the Prediction</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>框架，而不是预测</strong></h3>
</div><p>The print doesn't predict outcomes. It reveals which outcome offers better risk-reward when the probabilities are asymmetric.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>打印并不预测结果。它揭示了在概率不对称时哪个结果提供更好的风险回报。</p>
</div><p>Oracle validated the framework: identify the natural reversion level, recognize when options positioning aligns with that level, and understand that gamma can accelerate but doesn't determine direction.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>甲骨文验证了这个框架：识别自然回归水平，认识到期权布局与该水平一致，并理解伽马可以加速但并不决定方向。</p>
</div><p>The goal isn't prediction. It's probability. Oracle showed what happens when skew, positioning, and fundamentals align.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>目标不是预测。是概率。甲骨文展示了当偏斜、布局和基本面一致时会发生什么。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>Surviving Markets That Want You Dead</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在想要你死的市场中生存</p>
</div><p>A.I. Fear Escalates And Begins To Spread</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>人工智能恐惧升级并开始蔓延</p>
</div><p>Blake Just Spotted the Fed's Real Winners</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>布莱克刚刚发现美联储的真正赢家</p>
</div>

为什么 190 美元是甲骨文需要关注的关键水平