<ul>
<li>如果你曾经想知道 CoreCivic 是否在悄悄地以低于其真实价值的价格交易，你并不孤单，本文将逐步探讨这个问题。</li>
<li>尽管年初至今下跌了 13.0%，过去一年下跌了 13.6%，但该股在过去一个月上涨了 10.7%，在五年内上涨了 155.4%，这反映了当预期变化时市场的快速波动。</li>
<li>最近，投资者关注 CoreCivic 在美国矫正和拘留系统中的地位，特别是关于合同续签和政府对私营设施的优先事项变化的讨论。关于移民政策、刑事司法改革和公共部门预算限制如何在长期内重塑对 CoreCivic 服务的需求也在持续讨论中。</li>
<li>目前，CoreCivic 在我们的估值检查中得分为 6/6，表明在我们使用的所有指标中，它都被视为被低估。接下来，我们将详细解析这些方法，最后讨论 “公允价值” 对该业务的真正含义。</li>
</ul>
<p>了解为什么 CoreCivic 在过去一年中 -13.6% 的回报落后于同行。</p>
<h3>方法 1：CoreCivic 折现现金流 (DCF) 分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流（DCF）模型通过预测公司的未来现金流并将其折现回今天的美元来估算公司今天的价值。对于 CoreCivic，该模型采用 2 阶段自由现金流到股本的方法，从过去 12 个月的自由现金流约 1.39 亿美元开始，然后逐步应用变化的增长假设。</p>
<p>利用可用的分析师预测并推算未来几年，Simply Wall St 预计 CoreCivic 的自由现金流将在 2035 年达到约 1.54 亿美元，期间将出现适度下降，然后是低个位数的增长。所有这些未来现金流都转换为现值，然后相加得出每股约 24.50 美元的内在价值估计。</p>
<p>与当前股价相比，这意味着该股的交易价格大约低于其基于 DCF 的公允价值 22.9%，这表明投资者可能没有充分考虑公司的现金生成能力。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流 (DCF) 分析表明 CoreCivic 被低估了 22.9%。将其添加到你的观察列表或投资组合中，或发现基于现金流的 907 只被低估的股票。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 CXW 折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 CoreCivic 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法 2：CoreCivic 市盈率 vs 收益</h3>
<p>对于像 CoreCivic 这样的盈利企业，市盈率（PE）是衡量投资者愿意为每一美元当前收益支付多少的有用方式。一般来说，具有更强增长前景或较低感知风险的公司往往以更高的市盈率交易，而增长缓慢或风险较高的公司通常会获得较低、更保守的市盈率。</p>
<p>CoreCivic 当前的市盈率约为 18.1 倍，基本与同行平均的 18.2 倍持平，低于更广泛的商业服务行业平均的 24.6 倍。为了进一步超越简单的比较，Simply Wall St 还计算了一个公允比率，这是其专有的估算，考虑了 CoreCivic 的收益增长前景、利润率、行业动态、市值和风险特征等因素。这使得公允比率比基本的同行或行业检查更具针对性，因为后者可能会受到异常值或企业之间结构差异的影响。</p>
<p>对于 CoreCivic，公允比率为 28.4 倍，明显高于当前的 18.1 倍，表明市场对该股的定价低于其基本面可能合理的水平。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:CXW 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1448 家内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
<h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的 CoreCivic 故事</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法。让我们向你介绍 Narratives，这是 Simply Wall St 社区页面上的一个简单工具，让你通过将对 CoreCivic 未来收入、收益和利润率的假设与预测和公允价值估计联系起来，来编写数字背后的故事。这可以帮助你通过将公允价值与今天的价格进行比较来决定何时买入或卖出。Narrative 会随着新消息或收益的到来自动更新，因此你的观点保持最新。例如，一位投资者可能会围绕激增的拘留资金、快速的设施重新启用和扩大的利润率构建一个看涨的 CoreCivic 故事，这支持更高的公允价值和接近最乐观分析师的目标，约为每股 38.00 美元。另一位更谨慎的投资者可能会关注监管风险、ESG 压力和合同集中，目标接近最保守分析师的观点，约为 28.00 美元。然而，两者都在使用相同的结构化框架，将定性论点转化为清晰的、以数字为基础的估值。</p>
<p>你认为 CoreCivic 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/earnings-and-revenue-history?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/earnings-and-revenue-history"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:CXW 收益与收入历史</p>
<p>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</p>
<p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
<p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的。它是完全自主的塔，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达服务，覆盖任何地方。</p>
<p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
<p>代表 CiTech 赞助</p>

<p>CoreCivic 的股票最近反弹，尽管过去一年下跌了 13.6%，但在过去一个月中上涨了 10.7%。投资分析表明该股票被低估，DCF 模型显示其公允价值为每股 24.50 美元，当前价格有 22.9% 的折扣。市盈率分析也支持低估的观点，公允比率为 28.4 倍，而当前为 18.1 倍。投资者正在考虑合同续签和美国矫正系统中的政府优先事项等因素</p>

<ul>
<li>If you have ever wondered whether CoreCivic is quietly trading below what it is really worth, you are not alone and this article is going to walk through that question step by step.</li>
<li>Despite being down 13.0% year to date and 13.6% over the last year, the stock has climbed 10.7% in the last month and 155.4% over five years, which reflects how quickly the market can move when expectations change.</li>
<li>Recently, investors have been focused on CoreCivic's position in the U.S. corrections and detention system, especially around contract renewals and shifting government priorities for private facilities. There has also been ongoing discussion about how immigration policy, criminal justice reform, and public sector budget constraints could reshape demand for CoreCivic's services over the long term.</li>
<li>Right now, CoreCivic scores a 6/6 on our valuation checks, suggesting it screens as undervalued across all the measures we use. Next, we will unpack those methods, then finish with a way to think about what “fair value” really means for this business.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>如果你曾经想知道 CoreCivic 是否在悄悄地以低于其真实价值的价格交易，你并不孤单，本文将逐步探讨这个问题。</li>
<li>尽管年初至今下跌了 13.0%，过去一年下跌了 13.6%，但该股在过去一个月上涨了 10.7%，在五年内上涨了 155.4%，这反映了当预期变化时市场的快速波动。</li>
<li>最近，投资者关注 CoreCivic 在美国矫正和拘留系统中的地位，特别是关于合同续签和政府对私营设施的优先事项变化的讨论。关于移民政策、刑事司法改革和公共部门预算限制如何在长期内重塑对 CoreCivic 服务的需求也在持续讨论中。</li>
<li>目前，CoreCivic 在我们的估值检查中得分为 6/6，表明在我们使用的所有指标中，它都被视为被低估。接下来，我们将详细解析这些方法，最后讨论 “公允价值” 对该业务的真正含义。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Find out why CoreCivic's -13.6% return over the last year is lagging behind its peers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>了解为什么 CoreCivic 在过去一年中 -13.6% 的回报落后于同行。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: CoreCivic Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 1：CoreCivic 折现现金流 (DCF) 分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow, or DCF, model estimates what a company is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them back into today’s dollars. For CoreCivic, the model uses a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, starting from last twelve months free cash flow of about $139 million and then applying gradually changing growth assumptions over time.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流（DCF）模型通过预测公司的未来现金流并将其折现回今天的美元来估算公司今天的价值。对于 CoreCivic，该模型采用 2 阶段自由现金流到股本的方法，从过去 12 个月的自由现金流约 1.39 亿美元开始，然后逐步应用变化的增长假设。</p>
</div><p>Using analyst forecasts where available and extrapolating further years, Simply Wall St projects CoreCivic’s free cash flow to reach roughly $154 million in 2035, with modest declines and then low single digit growth along the way. All of these future cash flows are converted into present value in dollars, then summed to arrive at an estimated intrinsic value of about $24.50 per share.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>利用可用的分析师预测并推算未来几年，Simply Wall St 预计 CoreCivic 的自由现金流将在 2035 年达到约 1.54 亿美元，期间将出现适度下降，然后是低个位数的增长。所有这些未来现金流都转换为现值，然后相加得出每股约 24.50 美元的内在价值估计。</p>
</div><p>Compared with the current share price, this implies the stock is trading at roughly a 22.9% discount to its DCF based fair value, which indicates investors may not be fully pricing in the company’s cash generation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与当前股价相比，这意味着该股的交易价格大约低于其基于 DCF 的公允价值 22.9%，这表明投资者可能没有充分考虑公司的现金生成能力。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests CoreCivic is undervalued by 22.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover 907 more undervalued stocks based on cash flows.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流 (DCF) 分析表明 CoreCivic 被低估了 22.9%。将其添加到你的观察列表或投资组合中，或发现基于现金流的 907 只被低估的股票。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>CXW Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 CXW 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for CoreCivic.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 CoreCivic 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: CoreCivic Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 2：CoreCivic 市盈率 vs 收益</h3>
</div><p>For a profitable business like CoreCivic, the price to earnings, or PE, ratio is a useful way to gauge how much investors are willing to pay for each dollar of current earnings. In general, companies with stronger growth prospects or lower perceived risk tend to trade on higher PE multiples, while slower growth or higher risk usually warrants a lower, more conservative PE.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像 CoreCivic 这样的盈利企业，市盈率（PE）是衡量投资者愿意为每一美元当前收益支付多少的有用方式。一般来说，具有更强增长前景或较低感知风险的公司往往以更高的市盈率交易，而增长缓慢或风险较高的公司通常会获得较低、更保守的市盈率。</p>
</div><p>CoreCivic currently trades on a PE of about 18.1x, which is roughly in line with the peer average of 18.2x and below the broader Commercial Services industry average of 24.6x. To go a step further than simple comparisons, Simply Wall St also calculates a Fair Ratio, its proprietary estimate of what a reasonable PE should be after accounting for factors like CoreCivic’s earnings growth outlook, profit margins, industry dynamics, market cap and risk profile. This makes the Fair Ratio more tailored than a basic peer or industry check, which can be skewed by outliers or structural differences between businesses.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>CoreCivic 当前的市盈率约为 18.1 倍，基本与同行平均的 18.2 倍持平，低于更广泛的商业服务行业平均的 24.6 倍。为了进一步超越简单的比较，Simply Wall St 还计算了一个公允比率，这是其专有的估算，考虑了 CoreCivic 的收益增长前景、利润率、行业动态、市值和风险特征等因素。这使得公允比率比基本的同行或行业检查更具针对性，因为后者可能会受到异常值或企业之间结构差异的影响。</p>
</div><p>For CoreCivic, the Fair Ratio is 28.4x, notably higher than the current 18.1x, suggesting the market is pricing the stock below what its fundamentals might justify.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于 CoreCivic，公允比率为 28.4 倍，明显高于当前的 18.1 倍，表明市场对该股的定价低于其基本面可能合理的水平。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: UNDERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被低估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:CXW PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:CXW 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1448 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1448 家内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长的公司。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your CoreCivic Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>提升你的决策能力：选择你的 CoreCivic 故事</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation. Let us introduce you to Narratives, an easy tool on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you write the story behind your numbers by linking your assumptions about CoreCivic’s future revenue, earnings and margins to a forecast and then to a fair value estimate. This can help you decide when to buy or sell by comparing that Fair Value to today’s Price. The Narrative automatically updates as new news or earnings arrive so your view stays current. For example, one investor might build a bullish CoreCivic Narrative around surging detention funding, rapid facility reactivations and expanding margins that supports a higher fair value and a target closer to the most optimistic analyst at about $38.00 per share. Another, more cautious investor could focus on regulatory risk, ESG pressure and contract concentration, landing nearer the most conservative analyst view around $28.00. Yet both are using the same structured framework to turn a qualitative thesis into a clear, numbers-backed valuation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的理解估值的方法。让我们向你介绍 Narratives，这是 Simply Wall St 社区页面上的一个简单工具，让你通过将对 CoreCivic 未来收入、收益和利润率的假设与预测和公允价值估计联系起来，来编写数字背后的故事。这可以帮助你通过将公允价值与今天的价格进行比较来决定何时买入或卖出。Narrative 会随着新消息或收益的到来自动更新，因此你的观点保持最新。例如，一位投资者可能会围绕激增的拘留资金、快速的设施重新启用和扩大的利润率构建一个看涨的 CoreCivic 故事，这支持更高的公允价值和接近最乐观分析师的目标，约为每股 38.00 美元。另一位更谨慎的投资者可能会关注监管风险、ESG 压力和合同集中，目标接近最保守分析师的观点，约为 28.00 美元。然而，两者都在使用相同的结构化框架，将定性论点转化为清晰的、以数字为基础的估值。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for CoreCivic? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为 CoreCivic 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区，看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/earnings-and-revenue-history" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/da40ce65-4491-43d9-8cd4-47f34e367121/chart/earnings-and-revenue-history"/></p>
<p>NYSE:CXW Earnings &amp; Revenue History as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:CXW 收益与收入历史</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</p>
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<div class="lb-trans"><p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
</div><p>The next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的。它是完全自主的塔，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达服务，覆盖任何地方。</p>
</div><p>Get the investor briefing before the next round of contracts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
</div><p>Sponsored On Behalf of CiTech</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>代表 CiTech 赞助</p>
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在 2025 年股价反弹后，CoreCivic 的估值是否仍然具有吸引力？