<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1132" height="750" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA"/></p>
<p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
<p>近期就业增长明显放缓，截止到九月的四个月平均每月仅增加 40,000 个职位，而 2024 年则为 170,000 个职位。放缓的主要原因是移民的急剧减少，这一趋势自去年六月拜登上任以来开始，并在特朗普执政期间加速。劳动力增长的潜在速度现在可能在 30,000 到 60,000 之间。</p>
<p>由于尚不清楚需要多少工作岗位才能跟上劳动力市场的增长，因此应更多关注就业增长的分布和家庭调查中的失业率。在过去四个月中，绝大多数的就业增长发生在医疗保健领域，而其他大多数行业则出现了失业。ADP 的十一月报告显示，私营部门在该月出现了职位流失，制造业受到的打击尤其严重。</p>
<p>查看前几个月的增长修正也将很重要。修正是自相关的。前两个月的修正向下意味着，十一月数据中报告的修正也可能是负面的。</p>
<p>失业率从一月份的 4.0% 逐渐上升至九月份的 4.4%。虽然按历史标准来看，这仍然是相对较低的失业率，但变化的方向令人担忧。此外，黑人工人和年轻人等弱势群体的失业率增长幅度更大。</p>
<h3><strong>商品部门的就业可能再次下降</strong></h3>
<p>制造业在过去一年半中一直在裁员。预计这一下降趋势在十一月将继续。除了 ADP 报告外，值得注意的是，九月份制造业的工作时间急剧下降，使得总工作时间指数比去年同期低了超过一个百分点。</p>
<p>建筑业的就业在最近几个月也停滞不前。自年初以来，住宅建筑失去了 30,000 个职位。这一损失已被非住宅建筑和基础设施的增长所抵消。然而，从五月到九月的就业保持平稳。</p>
<p>采矿业的就业也呈下降趋势。尽管特朗普政府大力推动开放更多地区进行租赁并减少钻探的环境障碍，但低油价使得许多地区的生产变得无利可图。该行业的年同比职位流失 14,000 个，相对于整体劳动力市场来说相对微不足道；这占该行业就业的 2% 以上。预计在十一月将继续裁员。</p>
<h3><strong>医疗保健就业持续增长，政府就业可能停滞</strong></h3>
<p>医疗保健行业在十一月可能会继续增加就业，尽管增速低于去年。联邦政府的削减将抑制就业增长，但该行业仍将增加 20,000 到 30,000 个职位。联邦政府因 DOGE 的直接影响而裁员。这些裁员大多在十月份实施，但在十一月可能仍会有进一步的损失。州和地方政府去年是第二大就业增长行业，但预计今年剩余时间和 2026 年将会持平。</p>
<p>餐饮业是 2025 年另一个主要的就业增长行业。在今年早些时候停滞后，最近三个月的就业增长加速，平均每月超过 20,000 个职位。</p>
<h3><strong>工资增长正在减弱</strong></h3>
<p>2023 年和 2024 年名义工资增长平均略高于 4.0%。在 2025 年似乎有所放缓。随着通货膨胀上升，实际工资增长几乎停滞。预计十一月的小时工资年同比增长将进一步放缓，低于 3.5%。</p>
<p>工资增长减弱在低薪餐饮行业尤为明显。该行业的工资在九月份有所回升，但在十一月的数据中可能会逆转。</p>
<h3><strong>失业率将进一步上升</strong></h3>
<p>劳动力市场的疲软可能会使十一月的失业率至少达到 4.5%，甚至更高。这一失业率的上升对弱势群体的影响尤其严重。黑人工人和年轻工人（20 至 24 岁）的失业率预计将进一步上升，当前分别为 7.5% 和 9.2%。</p>
<h3><strong>因自愿辞职导致的失业比例</strong></h3>
<p>因自愿辞职导致的失业比例可能会进一步下降。考虑到失业率，这一比例一直异常低。这表明，工人们对在没有新工作安排的情况下离开当前工作后能否找到新工作的信心不足。九月份的 JOLTS（职位空缺和劳动力流动调查）数据显示，辞职率降至 1.8%。上一次辞职率如此之低是在 2014 年 12 月，当时失业率为 5.6%。</p>
<h3><strong>大学毕业生的失业率可能进一步上升</strong></h3>
<p>大学毕业生的失业率在九月份上升至 2.8%。虽然大学毕业生的失业率仍远低于受教育程度较低人群的失业率，但他们在今年劳动力市场疲软中受到的打击尤为严重。大学毕业生的失业率上一次如此之高是在 2015 年 5 月。随着疫情期间学生债务偿还的暂停结束，以及一些拜登的收入驱动偿还计划被取消，这对年轻毕业生来说可能是特别的困难。</p>
<h3><strong>劳动力市场疲软，工人面临困境</strong></h3>
<p>过去一年，劳动力市场明显疲软。这在因辞职导致的低失业率以及 JOLTS 数据中极低的辞职率中表现得尤为明显。此外，黑人工人和年轻人的失业率急剧上升，表明他们在找工作方面面临严重问题。虽然有一些证据表明工资增长放缓，但九月份的报告显示情况有所好转。目前，除非人工智能泡沫崩溃，否则没有理由担心经济衰退，但劳动力市场在十一月份可能会进一步恶化。</p>
<hr/>
<p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
<p>寻找唐纳德·特朗普的繁荣经济</p>
<p>特朗普的 1% 利率：与金钱的乐趣</p>
<p>特朗普就关税给国家上了一堂经济课</p>

联合健康

<p>就业增长放缓，最近平均每月新增 40,000 个职位，而 2024 年为 170,000 个，原因是移民减少。医疗保健是主要的新增就业部门，而制造业和采矿业则在减少就业。失业率上升至 4.4%，对弱势群体的影响更大。工资增长乏力，实际工资几乎没有增加。11 月的失业率可能上升至 4.5% 或更高，自愿辞职人数减少，显示出工人的不安全感</p>

<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg/query-YXV0bz1jb21wcmVzcyZjcz10aW55c3JnYiZoPTc1MCZ3PTEyNjA" alt="" original-src="https://images.pexels.com/photos/590022/pexels-photo-590022.jpeg?auto=compress&amp;cs=tinysrgb&amp;h=750&amp;w=1260"/></p>
<p><em>Image Source: Pexels</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>图片来源：Pexels</em></p>
</div><p>Job growth has clearly slowed sharply in recent months, with the average for the four months ending in September being just 40,000 jobs a month, compared to 170,000 jobs in 2024. A major cause of the slowdown is the sharp curtailment of immigration, which began last June under Biden and has picked up speed with Trump. The underlying rate of labor force growth is now likely in the range of 30,000 to 60,000.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>近期就业增长明显放缓，截止到九月的四个月平均每月仅增加 40,000 个职位，而 2024 年则为 170,000 个职位。放缓的主要原因是移民的急剧减少，这一趋势自去年六月拜登上任以来开始，并在特朗普执政期间加速。劳动力增长的潜在速度现在可能在 30,000 到 60,000 之间。</p>
</div><p>Since it’s not clear how many jobs are needed to keep even with the growth of the labor market, the focus should be more on the distribution of job growth and the unemployment rate from the household survey. In the last four months, the overwhelming majority of job growth has been in healthcare with most other sectors losing jobs. The ADP November report showed private sector job loss for the month, with manufacturing being especially hard hit.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>由于尚不清楚需要多少工作岗位才能跟上劳动力市场的增长，因此应更多关注就业增长的分布和家庭调查中的失业率。在过去四个月中，绝大多数的就业增长发生在医疗保健领域，而其他大多数行业则出现了失业。ADP 的十一月报告显示，私营部门在该月出现了职位流失，制造业受到的打击尤其严重。</p>
</div><p>It will also be important to look at the revisions to prior months’ growth. Revisions are autocorrelated. The fact that the prior two months revisions were downward means that it’s likely that the revisions reported in the November data will also be negative.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看前几个月的增长修正也将很重要。修正是自相关的。前两个月的修正向下意味着，十一月数据中报告的修正也可能是负面的。</p>
</div><p>The unemployment rate has been inching up from 4.0 percent in January to 4.4 percent in September. While this is still a relatively low unemployment rate by historical standards, the direction of change is a cause for concern. Also, disadvantaged groups like Black workers and young people have seen much larger increases in unemployment.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>失业率从一月份的 4.0% 逐渐上升至九月份的 4.4%。虽然按历史标准来看，这仍然是相对较低的失业率，但变化的方向令人担忧。此外，黑人工人和年轻人等弱势群体的失业率增长幅度更大。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Employment in the Goods Sector is Likely to Fall Again</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>商品部门的就业可能再次下降</strong></h3>
</div><p>The manufacturing sector has been shedding jobs for the last year and a half. The downward trend is likely to continue in November. In addition to the ADP report, it’s also worth noting that hours in manufacturing fell sharply in September, putting the index of aggregate hours more than a full percentage point below its year-ago level.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>制造业在过去一年半中一直在裁员。预计这一下降趋势在十一月将继续。除了 ADP 报告外，值得注意的是，九月份制造业的工作时间急剧下降，使得总工作时间指数比去年同期低了超过一个百分点。</p>
</div><p>Construction employment has also stagnated in recent months. Residential construction has lost 30,000 jobs since the start of the year. This has been more than offset by gains in non-residential construction and infrastructure. Still, employment was flat between May and September.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>建筑业的就业在最近几个月也停滞不前。自年初以来，住宅建筑失去了 30,000 个职位。这一损失已被非住宅建筑和基础设施的增长所抵消。然而，从五月到九月的就业保持平稳。</p>
</div><p>Mining employment has also been trending downward. While the Trump administration has made a big point of opening more areas to leasing and reducing environmental obstacles to drilling, the low price of oil has made production in many areas unprofitable. The 14k year-over-year job loss in the sector is relatively inconsequential relative to the overall labor market; it is more than 2 percent of employment in the sector. It is likely to continue to shed jobs in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>采矿业的就业也呈下降趋势。尽管特朗普政府大力推动开放更多地区进行租赁并减少钻探的环境障碍，但低油价使得许多地区的生产变得无利可图。该行业的年同比职位流失 14,000 个，相对于整体劳动力市场来说相对微不足道；这占该行业就业的 2% 以上。预计在十一月将继续裁员。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Health Care Employment Continues to Grow, Government Employment Likely to Stagnate</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>医疗保健就业持续增长，政府就业可能停滞</strong></h3>
</div><p>The health care sector will likely continue to add jobs in November, although at a slower pace than it did last year. Federal cutbacks will restrain job growth, but the sector will still add 20,000 jobs to 30,000 jobs. The federal government has been shedding jobs as a direct result of DOGE. These cuts mostly had been implemented as of October, but there may still be some further losses in November. State and local governments had been the second leading sector for job growth last year, but employment will likely be treading water the rest of this year and into 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>医疗保健行业在十一月可能会继续增加就业，尽管增速低于去年。联邦政府的削减将抑制就业增长，但该行业仍将增加 20,000 到 30,000 个职位。联邦政府因 DOGE 的直接影响而裁员。这些裁员大多在十月份实施，但在十一月可能仍会有进一步的损失。州和地方政府去年是第二大就业增长行业，但预计今年剩余时间和 2026 年将会持平。</p>
</div><p>Restaurants had been the other major sector for job growth in 2025. After stagnating earlier this year, job growth has sped up, averaging more than 20,000 a month in the last three months.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>餐饮业是 2025 年另一个主要的就业增长行业。在今年早些时候停滞后，最近三个月的就业增长加速，平均每月超过 20,000 个职位。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Wage Growth is Weakening</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>工资增长正在减弱</strong></h3>
</div><p>Nominal wage growth had averaged slightly above 4.0 percent in 2023 and 2024. It seems to have slowed modestly in 2025. With inflation edging higher, real wage growth has slowed to a crawl. It is likely that the year-over-year growth in the hourly wage will slow further in November, with a rate under 3.5 percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2023 年和 2024 年名义工资增长平均略高于 4.0%。在 2025 年似乎有所放缓。随着通货膨胀上升，实际工资增长几乎停滞。预计十一月的小时工资年同比增长将进一步放缓，低于 3.5%。</p>
</div><p>The weakening of wage growth had been especially visible in the low-paying restaurant industry. Wages in this industry have bounced up some in September, but this could be reversed in the November data.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工资增长减弱在低薪餐饮行业尤为明显。该行业的工资在九月份有所回升，但在十一月的数据中可能会逆转。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Unemployment Will Edge Higher</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>失业率将进一步上升</strong></h3>
</div><p>The weakness in the labor market will likely push the unemployment rate in November to at least 4.5 percent, and possibly higher. This rise in unemployment is hitting disadvantaged groups especially hard. The unemployment rate for both Black workers and young workers (ages 20 to 24) are likely to rise further from the current rates of 7.5 percent and 9.2 percent, respectively.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳动力市场的疲软可能会使十一月的失业率至少达到 4.5%，甚至更高。这一失业率的上升对弱势群体的影响尤其严重。黑人工人和年轻工人（20 至 24 岁）的失业率预计将进一步上升，当前分别为 7.5% 和 9.2%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>The Share of Unemployment Due to Quits</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>因自愿辞职导致的失业比例</strong></h3>
</div><p>The portion of unemployment due to voluntary quits is likely to fall further. It has consistently been unusually low given the unemployment rate. This suggests that workers do not feel confident of their ability to get a new job if they leave their current job without a new job lined up. This view is supported by the September data from the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey), which showed the quit rate falling to 1.8 percent. The last time the quit rate was this low was in December of 2014, when the unemployment rate was 5.6 percent.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因自愿辞职导致的失业比例可能会进一步下降。考虑到失业率，这一比例一直异常低。这表明，工人们对在没有新工作安排的情况下离开当前工作后能否找到新工作的信心不足。九月份的 JOLTS（职位空缺和劳动力流动调查）数据显示，辞职率降至 1.8%。上一次辞职率如此之低是在 2014 年 12 月，当时失业率为 5.6%。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Unemployment for College Grads Could Rise Further</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>大学毕业生的失业率可能进一步上升</strong></h3>
</div><p>The unemployment rate for college grads rose to 2.8 percent in September. While the unemployment rate for college grads is still far lower than the rate for people with less education, they have been especially hard hit by the weakening of the labor market this year. The last time the unemployment rate for college grads was this high was in May of 2015. This is likely to be a special hardship for younger grads now that the pandemic moratorium on student debt repayment has ended and some of the Biden income-driven repayment plans have been cancelled.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>大学毕业生的失业率在九月份上升至 2.8%。虽然大学毕业生的失业率仍远低于受教育程度较低人群的失业率，但他们在今年劳动力市场疲软中受到的打击尤为严重。大学毕业生的失业率上一次如此之高是在 2015 年 5 月。随着疫情期间学生债务偿还的暂停结束，以及一些拜登的收入驱动偿还计划被取消，这对年轻毕业生来说可能是特别的困难。</p>
</div><h3><strong>Weakening Labor Market, Bad Times for Workers</strong></h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3><strong>劳动力市场疲软，工人面临困境</strong></h3>
</div><p>The labor market has gotten notably weaker over the last year. This is most visible in the low share of unemployment due to quits, as well as the extraordinarily low quit rate in the JOLTS data. Also, the sharp rise in the unemployment rate of Black workers and young people indicates they are having serious problems finding work. There had been some evidence wage growth had slowed, although the September report showed a somewhat better picture. At the moment, there is no basis for concerns about a recession, absent a collapse of the AI bubble, but the labor market is likely to show further deterioration in November.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>过去一年，劳动力市场明显疲软。这在因辞职导致的低失业率以及 JOLTS 数据中极低的辞职率中表现得尤为明显。此外，黑人工人和年轻人的失业率急剧上升，表明他们在找工作方面面临严重问题。虽然有一些证据表明工资增长放缓，但九月份的报告显示情况有所好转。目前，除非人工智能泡沫崩溃，否则没有理由担心经济衰退，但劳动力市场在十一月份可能会进一步恶化。</p>
</div><hr/>
<div class="lb-trans"><hr/>
</div><p><em>More By This Author:</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>更多来自此作者的文章：</em></p>
</div><p>In Search Of Donald Trump’s Booming Economy</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>寻找唐纳德·特朗普的繁荣经济</p>
</div><p>Trump’s One Percent Interest Rate: Fun With Money</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普的 1% 利率：与金钱的乐趣</p>
</div><p>Trump Gives The Country An Economics Lesson On Tariffs</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>特朗普就关税给国家上了一堂经济课</p>
</div>

2025 年 11 月就业数据预览：我们可以期待什么