<ul>
<li>想知道在 TE Connectivity 经历了大幅上涨后，是否仍然值得购买，或者你是否已经晚到了派对上？本文将探讨当前价格实际上反映了什么。</li>
<li>即使在过去一周小幅回调约-1.8% 和过去一个月-3.0% 之后，该股票今年迄今仍上涨了令人印象深刻的 63.7%，过去一年上涨了 55.7%，三年和五年内的涨幅更是翻了一番。</li>
<li>最近的市场兴趣受到 TE Connectivity 在电动车、工业自动化和更广泛的连接设备转型等关键长期趋势中的定位影响，其连接器和传感器的需求依然强劲。同时，投资者也在重新评估这种长期增长故事在股价中反映了多少。</li>
<li>目前，TE Connectivity 在我们的估值检查中仅得分 1/6，这表明市场可能在定价时充满了乐观情绪。我们将分析不同的估值方法对此的看法。请坚持到最后，我们不仅会比较这些方法，还会探讨一种更全面的方式来解读估值对该股票的真正意义。</li>
</ul>
<p>TE Connectivity 在我们的估值检查中仅得分 1/6。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
<h3>方法 1：TE Connectivity 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流模型通过预测公司的未来现金流并将其折现回今天的美元价值来估算公司的价值。对于 TE Connectivity，该模型以过去 12 个月的自由现金流约为 33 亿美元为起点，预计到 2030 年将增长至约 39 亿美元，基于分析师对未来几年的预测，并在此基础上进行外推增长。</p>
<p>使用这种两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法，Simply Wall St 得出的每股内在价值约为 187.79 美元。与当前市场价格相比，DCF 表明 TE Connectivity 的估值约高出 22.6%。这意味着投资者已经为电动车、自动化和连接设备的预期增长支付了相当一部分费用。</p>
<p>仅从这个框架来看，股票的定价似乎更倾向于乐观，而不是提供明确的安全边际。</p>
<p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明 TE Connectivity 可能高估了 22.6%。发现 903 只被低估的股票或创建自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 TEL 折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 TE Connectivity 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法 2：TE Connectivity 价格与收益</h3>
<p>对于像 TE Connectivity 这样的盈利公司，市盈率（P/E）是一个有用的衡量标准，因为它将投资者支付的价格直接与公司当前产生的利润联系起来。当投资者预期更强劲的增长或认为收益更可靠时，较高的市盈率是合理的，而较低的市盈率通常反映出增长缓慢或风险较高。</p>
<p>TE Connectivity 目前的市盈率约为 36.7 倍。这远高于电子行业整体平均的约 24.8 倍，但与其直接同行组的平均 37.2 倍大致相符。为了进一步细化这一情况，Simply Wall St 使用了一种专有的 “公允比率” 模型，该模型在考虑收益增长、行业、利润率、市值和公司特定风险等因素后，估算出合理的市盈率应该是多少。</p>
<p>基于此，TE Connectivity 的公允比率为 30.1 倍，低于当前市场的 36.7 倍。这一差距表明，投资者支付的溢价远高于其基本面通常所能支持的水平，即使在考虑其增长和质量特征之后。</p>
<p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TEL 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1443 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
<h3>升级你的决策：选择你的 TE Connectivity 叙述</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向你介绍叙述，这是一种将你对 TE Connectivity 故事的看法与其未来收入、收益和利润率的具体预测联系起来的简单方法，然后再与你自己的公允价值估计相结合。</p>
<p>Simply Wall St 上的叙述本质上是用数字书写的投资故事。你设定假设，如增长率、利润率和未来估值倍数，以反映你认为 AI 数据中心、电动车普及和电网升级等趋势将如何影响 TE Connectivity。</p>
<p>这些叙述存在于 Simply Wall St 的社区页面上，数百万投资者都在使用。它们使得在与实时市场价格比较时，轻松判断你的公允价值是否表明该股票是买入、持有还是卖出。</p>
<p>当新信息到达时，它们也会动态更新。如果 TE Connectivity 发布了强于预期的收益或宣布了一项重大合同，你的叙述的预测和公允价值会自动反映这一变化。</p>
<p>例如，一个 TE Connectivity 的叙述可能假设强劲的 AI 和电动车驱动的增长，并支持接近分析师目标上限约 247 美元的公允价值。一个更谨慎的叙述可能更接近于低端约 155 美元。将两者与当前价格进行比较，有助于澄清你认为目前上涨或下跌的可能性更大。</p>
<p>你认为 TE Connectivity 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1044" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:TEL 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
<p>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不意图作为财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</p>
<p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
<p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的。它是完全自主的塔，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达服务，覆盖任何地方。</p>
<p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
<p>代表 CiTech 赞助</p>

泰科电子

<p>TE Connectivity 的股票在 2025 年迄今已上涨 63.7%，这得益于其在电动车、工业自动化和连接设备中的作用。尽管近期有所回调，但根据折现现金流分析和与行业平均水平相比的高市盈率，该股票被认为是高估的。市场可能在定价时过于乐观，这意味着新投资者的安全边际有限</p>

<ul>
<li>Wondering if TE Connectivity is still worth buying after its big run up, or if you are turning up late to the party? This piece will walk through what the current price is really baking in.</li>
<li>Even after a small pullback of around -1.8% over the last week and -3.0% over the past month, the stock is still up an impressive 63.7% year to date and 55.7% over the last year, more than doubling over three years and five years.</li>
<li>Recent market interest has been shaped by TE Connectivity's positioning in key secular trends such as electric vehicles, industrial automation, and the broader shift toward connected devices, where demand for its connectors and sensors has remained resilient. At the same time, investors have been reassessing how much of that long term growth story is already reflected in the share price.</li>
<li>Right now, TE Connectivity scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks, suggesting the market may be pricing in a lot of optimism. We will break down what different valuation approaches say about that. Stick around to the end, where we will not only compare those methods but also look at a more holistic way to interpret what valuation really means for this stock.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>想知道在 TE Connectivity 经历了大幅上涨后，是否仍然值得购买，或者你是否已经晚到了派对上？本文将探讨当前价格实际上反映了什么。</li>
<li>即使在过去一周小幅回调约-1.8% 和过去一个月-3.0% 之后，该股票今年迄今仍上涨了令人印象深刻的 63.7%，过去一年上涨了 55.7%，三年和五年内的涨幅更是翻了一番。</li>
<li>最近的市场兴趣受到 TE Connectivity 在电动车、工业自动化和更广泛的连接设备转型等关键长期趋势中的定位影响，其连接器和传感器的需求依然强劲。同时，投资者也在重新评估这种长期增长故事在股价中反映了多少。</li>
<li>目前，TE Connectivity 在我们的估值检查中仅得分 1/6，这表明市场可能在定价时充满了乐观情绪。我们将分析不同的估值方法对此的看法。请坚持到最后，我们不仅会比较这些方法，还会探讨一种更全面的方式来解读估值对该股票的真正意义。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>TE Connectivity scores just 1/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TE Connectivity 在我们的估值检查中仅得分 1/6。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: TE Connectivity Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 1：TE Connectivity 折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a company is worth by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting those back to today in $ terms. For TE Connectivity, the model starts with last twelve month free cash flow of about $3.3 billion and projects this to rise to roughly $3.9 billion by 2030, based on analyst forecasts for the next few years and then extrapolated growth thereafter.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流模型通过预测公司的未来现金流并将其折现回今天的美元价值来估算公司的价值。对于 TE Connectivity，该模型以过去 12 个月的自由现金流约为 33 亿美元为起点，预计到 2030 年将增长至约 39 亿美元，基于分析师对未来几年的预测，并在此基础上进行外推增长。</p>
</div><p>Using this 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, Simply Wall St arrives at an intrinsic value of about $187.79 per share. Compared with the current market price, the DCF suggests TE Connectivity is around 22.6% overvalued. This implies investors are already paying up for a good deal of the expected growth in electric vehicles, automation, and connected devices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>使用这种两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法，Simply Wall St 得出的每股内在价值约为 187.79 美元。与当前市场价格相比，DCF 表明 TE Connectivity 的估值约高出 22.6%。这意味着投资者已经为电动车、自动化和连接设备的预期增长支付了相当一部分费用。</p>
</div><p>On this framework alone, the shares look priced for optimism rather than offering a clear margin of safety.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>仅从这个框架来看，股票的定价似乎更倾向于乐观，而不是提供明确的安全边际。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests TE Connectivity may be overvalued by 22.6%. Discover 903 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明 TE Connectivity 可能高估了 22.6%。发现 903 只被低估的股票或创建自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>TEL Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 TEL 折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for TE Connectivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出 TE Connectivity 的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: TE Connectivity Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法 2：TE Connectivity 价格与收益</h3>
</div><p>For profitable companies like TE Connectivity, the price to earnings (P/E) ratio is a useful yardstick because it links what investors pay directly to the profits the business is generating today. A higher P/E can be justified when investors expect stronger growth or see the earnings as more reliable, while lower P/Es often reflect slower growth or higher perceived risk.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像 TE Connectivity 这样的盈利公司，市盈率（P/E）是一个有用的衡量标准，因为它将投资者支付的价格直接与公司当前产生的利润联系起来。当投资者预期更强劲的增长或认为收益更可靠时，较高的市盈率是合理的，而较低的市盈率通常反映出增长缓慢或风险较高。</p>
</div><p>TE Connectivity currently trades on a P/E of about 36.7x. That is well above the broader Electronic industry average of roughly 24.8x, but broadly in line with its immediate peer group, which averages around 37.2x. To refine this picture, Simply Wall St uses a proprietary “Fair Ratio” model, which estimates what a reasonable P/E should be once factors like earnings growth, industry, profit margins, market cap, and company specific risks are taken into account.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>TE Connectivity 目前的市盈率约为 36.7 倍。这远高于电子行业整体平均的约 24.8 倍，但与其直接同行组的平均 37.2 倍大致相符。为了进一步细化这一情况，Simply Wall St 使用了一种专有的 “公允比率” 模型，该模型在考虑收益增长、行业、利润率、市值和公司特定风险等因素后，估算出合理的市盈率应该是多少。</p>
</div><p>On this basis, TE Connectivity’s Fair Ratio is 30.1x, below the current market multiple of 36.7x. That gap suggests investors are paying a premium well above what its fundamentals alone would typically support, even after considering its growth and quality profile.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基于此，TE Connectivity 的公允比率为 30.1 倍，低于当前市场的 36.7 倍。这一差距表明，投资者支付的溢价远高于其基本面通常所能支持的水平，即使在考虑其增长和质量特征之后。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：高估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NYSE:TEL PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的 NYSE:TEL 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1443 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1443 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your TE Connectivity Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>升级你的决策：选择你的 TE Connectivity 叙述</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple way to connect your view of TE Connectivity’s story to concrete forecasts for its future revenue, earnings, and margins, and then to your own fair value estimate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，还有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向你介绍叙述，这是一种将你对 TE Connectivity 故事的看法与其未来收入、收益和利润率的具体预测联系起来的简单方法，然后再与你自己的公允价值估计相结合。</p>
</div><p>A Narrative on Simply Wall St is essentially your investment storyline written in numbers. You set assumptions like growth rates, margins, and future valuation multiples that reflect how you think trends such as AI data centers, EV adoption, and grid upgrades will play out for TE Connectivity.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Simply Wall St 上的叙述本质上是用数字书写的投资故事。你设定假设，如增长率、利润率和未来估值倍数，以反映你认为 AI 数据中心、电动车普及和电网升级等趋势将如何影响 TE Connectivity。</p>
</div><p>These Narratives live in the Community page on Simply Wall St and are used by millions of investors. They make it easy to see whether your Fair Value suggests the stock is a buy, hold, or sell when compared with the live market price.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些叙述存在于 Simply Wall St 的社区页面上，数百万投资者都在使用。它们使得在与实时市场价格比较时，轻松判断你的公允价值是否表明该股票是买入、持有还是卖出。</p>
</div><p>They also update dynamically when new information arrives. If TE Connectivity posts stronger than expected earnings or announces a major contract, your Narrative’s forecast and Fair Value automatically reflect that change.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当新信息到达时，它们也会动态更新。如果 TE Connectivity 发布了强于预期的收益或宣布了一项重大合同，你的叙述的预测和公允价值会自动反映这一变化。</p>
</div><p>For example, one TE Connectivity Narrative might assume robust AI and EV driven growth and support a Fair Value near the top end of analyst targets around $247. A more cautious Narrative might lean closer to the low end near $155. Comparing both to the current price helps clarify whether you believe upside or downside is more likely right now.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>例如，一个 TE Connectivity 的叙述可能假设强劲的 AI 和电动车驱动的增长，并支持接近分析师目标上限约 247 美元的公允价值。一个更谨慎的叙述可能更接近于低端约 155 美元。将两者与当前价格进行比较，有助于澄清你认为目前上涨或下跌的可能性更大。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for TE Connectivity? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>你认为 TE Connectivity 的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/ffbd0154-e9c9-4967-8674-b3366ac4c0c0/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NYSE:TEL 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>NYSE:TEL 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不意图作为财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买卖任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</p>
</div><p>Mobile Infrastructure for Defense and Disaster</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>国防和灾难的移动基础设施</p>
</div><p>The next wave in robotics isn't humanoid. Its fully autonomous towers delivering 5G, ISR, and radar in under 30 minutes, anywhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>下一波机器人技术不是类人型的。它是完全自主的塔，在 30 分钟内提供 5G、ISR 和雷达服务，覆盖任何地方。</p>
</div><p>Get the investor briefing before the next round of contracts</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在下一轮合同之前获取投资者简报</p>
</div><p>Sponsored On Behalf of CiTech</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>代表 CiTech 赞助</p>
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在 2025 年，泰科电子的股价已经在年初至今上涨了 63%，现在是否已经错过了投资的最佳时机？