<p>今年，白银的表现远超黄金，截至 12 月初，价格飙升近 100%。</p>
<p>这一涨势伴随着剧烈波动，受到经济信号变化和贸易关税政策演变的驱动，ING 集团预计在高不确定性持续的情况下，市场将进一步波动。</p>
<p>ING 在其展望报告中表示，白银近期的强劲表现归因于几个关键因素：持续的供应短缺、因其在太阳能技术、电动车和电子产品中的重要作用而推动的强劲工业需求。</p>
<p>此外，投资者对白银的兴趣重新回升，白银被视为比黄金更易获得的替代品。</p>
<p>黄金/白银比率从解放日的高峰 105 显著下降，目前处于年初至今的低点，低于 70。</p>
<p>根据 ING 集团商品策略师 Ewa Manthey 的说法，这一减少表明机构投资者对白银的信心正在增强。</p>
<p><strong>伟大的白银挤压</strong></p>
<p>美国关税的不确定性导致历史性的挤压，将金属从伦敦转移到美国，导致 COMEX 期货在大部分时间内持续高于伦敦价格。</p>
<p>这一变化导致伦敦可用白银库存急剧减少，伦敦是主要的交易中心。</p>
<p>尽管伦敦的白银流入创下纪录，白银市场仍在努力应对历史性的空头挤压带来的影响。</p>
<p>在伦敦，租赁利率（代表借入白银的年成本）仍维持在约 6% 的高位。</p>
<p>这一情况给其他地区带来了压力，10 月份中国的白银出口激增至创纪录的 660 多吨。</p>
<p>因此，与上海期货交易所相关的仓库库存最近达到了近十年来的最低水平，促使大量白银被运往伦敦以缓解那里的压力。</p>
<p>Manthey 在 ING 报告中表示：</p>
<p>白银仍面临关税风险，最近将贵金属纳入美国地质调查局的关键矿物名单，增加了美国进口关税的可能性。</p>
<p><strong>2026 年的顺风</strong></p>
<p>Manthey 补充道：“展望 2026 年，白银将继续受到投资者对贵金属的改善情绪和日益紧张的实物平衡的支持。”</p>
<p>白银有望受益于与黄金类似的宏观因素，包括美元走弱、美联储降息以及由于持续的地缘政治不稳定而增加的避险资产需求。</p>
<p>历史上，白银在货币宽松时期的表现优于黄金，因为实际收益率的下降通常会提升投资者兴趣和工业使用。</p>
<p>但根据 Manthey 的说法，白银的前景也受到与黄金不同的基本面因素的影响。</p>
<p>工业应用消耗了超过一半的白银总供应。</p>
<p>预计中国的太阳能需求将放缓，特别是在经历了几年的强劲增长后，预计安装量将在 2025 年达到最高点。</p>
<p>电气化、必要的电网增强以及白银在汽车部件中日益增加的应用，尤其是在混合动力和电池电动车辆中，进一步增加了对白银的需求。</p>
<p><strong>波动性将持续</strong></p>
<p>Manthey 表示：</p>
<p>白银常被称为 “类固醇上的黄金”——它在百分比上往往比黄金波动更大。</p>
<p>白银的市场规模小于黄金，其需求在工业和投资用途之间分配，使其对经济波动高度敏感。</p>
<p>因此，尽管白银在牛市期间可以显著超越黄金，但在经济下行时也容易出现更大幅度的下跌，ING 报告指出。</p>
<p>预计明年白银将继续保持高波动性。</p>
<p>Manthey 表示：“虽然我们不认为今年的涨幅速度是可持续的，但总体而言，我们预计白银价格将在强劲的工业需求、受限的供应增长和更有利的宏观环境的组合下保持良好支撑。”</p>
<p>我们预计 2026 年价格平均为每盎司 55 美元。</p>

荷兰国际

<p>银在 2023 年的表现优于黄金，价格上涨近 100%。荷兰国际预计，由于经济信号和贸易政策的影响，市场将继续波动。关键因素包括供应短缺、工业需求和投资兴趣。黄金/白银比率下降，表明对银的信心增强。美国关税和地缘政治不稳定可能会影响价格。荷兰国际预测到 2026 年银价将平均达到每盎司 55 美元，这得益于工业需求、供应受限和有利的宏观因素</p>

<p>Silver has dramatically outperformed gold this year, with prices surging by nearly 100% as of early December.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>今年，白银的表现远超黄金，截至 12 月初，价格飙升近 100%。</p>
</div><p>The rally has been marked by sharp swings, driven by shifting economic signals and evolving trade tariff policies, and with high uncertainty persisting, ING Group anticipates further market volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一涨势伴随着剧烈波动，受到经济信号变化和贸易关税政策演变的驱动，ING 集团预计在高不确定性持续的情况下，市场将进一步波动。</p>
</div><p>The recent strength of silver is attributable to several key factors: a continued supply deficit, robust industrial demand driven by its essential role in solar technology, EVs, and electronics, ING said in its outlook report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>ING 在其展望报告中表示，白银近期的强劲表现归因于几个关键因素：持续的供应短缺、因其在太阳能技术、电动车和电子产品中的重要作用而推动的强劲工业需求。</p>
</div><p>Additionally, there has been a resurgence of investment interest in silver as a more accessible alternative to gold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此外，投资者对白银的兴趣重新回升，白银被视为比黄金更易获得的替代品。</p>
</div><p>The gold/silver ratio has dropped significantly from its Liberation Day peak of 105, now sitting at a year-to-date low of below 70.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>黄金/白银比率从解放日的高峰 105 显著下降，目前处于年初至今的低点，低于 70。</p>
</div><p>This reduction suggests a growing confidence in silver among institutional investors, according to Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Group.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>根据 ING 集团商品策略师 Ewa Manthey 的说法，这一减少表明机构投资者对白银的信心正在增强。</p>
</div><p><strong>Great silver squeeze</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>伟大的白银挤压</strong></p>
</div><p>US tariff uncertainty caused a historic squeeze by diverting metal from London to the US, resulting in COMEX futures consistently trading higher than London prices throughout much of the year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美国关税的不确定性导致历史性的挤压，将金属从伦敦转移到美国，导致 COMEX 期货在大部分时间内持续高于伦敦价格。</p>
</div><p>This shift led to a sharp reduction in available silver stocks in London, the main trading center.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一变化导致伦敦可用白银库存急剧减少，伦敦是主要的交易中心。</p>
</div><p>The silver market is still grappling with the effects of a historic short squeeze, despite a record inflow of silver into London.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管伦敦的白银流入创下纪录，白银市场仍在努力应对历史性的空头挤压带来的影响。</p>
</div><p>Lease rates, which represent the annual cost of borrowing silver in London, remain elevated at about 6%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在伦敦，租赁利率（代表借入白银的年成本）仍维持在约 6% 的高位。</p>
</div><p>The situation has put pressure on other regions, as evidenced by Chinese silver exports surging to a record high of over 660 tonnes in October.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这一情况给其他地区带来了压力，10 月份中国的白银出口激增至创纪录的 660 多吨。</p>
</div><p>As a result, stockpiles in warehouses linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange recently reached their lowest level in nearly a decade, prompting a significant amount of silver to be shipped to London to alleviate the strain there.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，与上海期货交易所相关的仓库库存最近达到了近十年来的最低水平，促使大量白银被运往伦敦以缓解那里的压力。</p>
</div><p>Manthey said in the ING report:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 在 ING 报告中表示：</p>
</div><p>There is still a risk of a tariff on silver, with the recent inclusion of the precious metal on the US Geological Survey list of critical minerals increasing the likelihood of US import tariffs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银仍面临关税风险，最近将贵金属纳入美国地质调查局的关键矿物名单，增加了美国进口关税的可能性。</p>
</div><p><strong>Tailwinds in 2026</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>2026 年的顺风</strong></p>
</div><p>“Looking ahead into 2026, silver will continue to be supported by improving investor sentiment towards precious metals and tightening physical balances,” Manthey added.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 补充道：“展望 2026 年，白银将继续受到投资者对贵金属的改善情绪和日益紧张的实物平衡的支持。”</p>
</div><p>Silver is poised to benefit from macro factors similar to those supporting gold, including a weaker US dollar, interest rate cuts by the Fed, and increased demand for safe-haven assets due to ongoing geopolitical instability.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银有望受益于与黄金类似的宏观因素，包括美元走弱、美联储降息以及由于持续的地缘政治不稳定而增加的避险资产需求。</p>
</div><p>Historically, silver has demonstrated superior performance to gold during periods of monetary easing, as a decline in real yields typically boosts both investor interest and industrial usage.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>历史上，白银在货币宽松时期的表现优于黄金，因为实际收益率的下降通常会提升投资者兴趣和工业使用。</p>
</div><p>But silver’s outlook is also shaped by fundamentals that differ from gold, according to Manthey.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但根据 Manthey 的说法，白银的前景也受到与黄金不同的基本面因素的影响。</p>
</div><p>Industrial applications consume over half of the total silver supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>工业应用消耗了超过一半的白银总供应。</p>
</div><p>A slowdown in solar demand is anticipated, particularly in China, following several robust years, with installations projected to reach their highest point in 2025.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计中国的太阳能需求将放缓，特别是在经历了几年的强劲增长后，预计安装量将在 2025 年达到最高点。</p>
</div><p>Further increasing demand for silver are trends like electrification, necessary power grid enhancements, and the rising incorporation of silver in automotive components, particularly within hybrid and battery electric vehicles.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>电气化、必要的电网增强以及白银在汽车部件中日益增加的应用，尤其是在混合动力和电池电动车辆中，进一步增加了对白银的需求。</p>
</div><p><strong>Volatility to continue</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>波动性将持续</strong></p>
</div><p>Manthey said:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 表示：</p>
</div><p>Silver is often nicknamed “gold on steroids” – it tends to move much more than gold in percentage terms.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银常被称为 “类固醇上的黄金”——它在百分比上往往比黄金波动更大。</p>
</div><p>Silver’s market size is smaller than gold’s, and its demand is split between industrial and investment uses, making it highly susceptible to economic fluctuations.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>白银的市场规模小于黄金，其需求在工业和投资用途之间分配，使其对经济波动高度敏感。</p>
</div><p>Consequently, while silver can significantly outperform gold during bull markets, it is also prone to steeper declines in economic downturns, according to the ING report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>因此，尽管白银在牛市期间可以显著超越黄金，但在经济下行时也容易出现更大幅度的下跌，ING 报告指出。</p>
</div><p>This high level of volatility is expected to persist for silver next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>预计明年白银将继续保持高波动性。</p>
</div><p>“While we don’t believe that the pace of gains seen this year is sustainable, overall, we expect silver prices to remain well-supported amid the combination of resilient industrial demand, constrained supply growth, and a more favourable macro environment,” Manthey said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Manthey 表示：“虽然我们不认为今年的涨幅速度是可持续的，但总体而言，我们预计白银价格将在强劲的工业需求、受限的供应增长和更有利的宏观环境的组合下保持良好支撑。”</p>
</div><p>We see prices averaging $55/oz in 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们预计 2026 年价格平均为每盎司 55 美元。</p>
</div>

2026 年白银的波动性预计将持续；荷兰国际预计价格将平均达到每盎司 55 美元