---
title: "科技 “缩圈”"
description: "国投林荣雄团队指出，A 股科技板块自二季度以来逐步聚焦于产业趋势明确的方向。AI 应用和机器人在二季度表现不佳，而 AI 硬件如存储、PCB、光模块继续领涨。三季度光模块优势明显，11 月谷歌 Gemini3 崛起使谷歌产业链优于英伟达。这种科技内部缩圈反映出资金涌入高确定性方向，体现风险偏好下降和预期回摆。"
type: "news"
locale: "zh-CN"
url: "https://longbridge.com/zh-CN/news/269639355.md"
published_at: "2025-12-14T23:41:02.000Z"
---

# 科技 “缩圈”

> 国投林荣雄团队指出，A 股科技板块自二季度以来逐步聚焦于产业趋势明确的方向。AI 应用和机器人在二季度表现不佳，而 AI 硬件如存储、PCB、光模块继续领涨。三季度光模块优势明显，11 月谷歌 Gemini3 崛起使谷歌产业链优于英伟达。这种科技内部缩圈反映出资金涌入高确定性方向，体现风险偏好下降和预期回摆。

国投林荣雄团队：

A 股科技板块内部自二季度以来经历了逐步向产业趋势明确的方向聚焦的过程。首先是业绩确定性和产业趋势尚待明确的 AI 应用和机器人，在二季度出现了 “掉队”，存储、PCB、光模块等 AI 硬件继续在科技中领涨；而进入三季度开始，光模块相对于其他硬件链条的优势更为明显。11 月以来，谷歌 Gemini3 的崛起和围绕 TPU 路线的火热讨论，又导致谷歌产业链相对英伟达产业链更占优。

这种科技内部的缩圈，配合市场逐步的缩量，体现出资金涌入高确定性方向的特征，本质也是一种风险偏好的下降和预期的回摆。

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