<ul>
<li>想知道万豪国际在每股约 298 美元的价格是否仍然是一个明智的投资，或者大部分轻松获利的机会是否已经过去？</li>
<li>该股票在过去一周上涨了约 2.1%，过去一个月上涨了 4.5%，年初至今上涨了 8.8%，在三年内累计增长了 100.2%，五年内增长了 140.4%。</li>
<li>这种强劲表现的很大一部分得益于稳定的旅行需求以及万豪在高费用、轻资产特许经营和管理合同方面的推动，这提升了利润率并使增长的资本需求降低。同时，投资者也在关注公司如何扩展其忠诚度生态系统和奢侈品市场，以吸引和留住高消费的客户，包括在全球经济可能放缓的时期。</li>
<li>尽管有着稳健的长期回报背景，我们的框架显示万豪目前在我们的估值检查中仅得 0/6 分。在本文中，我们将分析不同的估值方法对该股票的看法，然后以更直观的方式将这些数字与长期叙事联系起来。</li>
</ul>
<p>万豪国际在我们的估值检查中仅得 0/6 分。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
<h3>方法一：万豪国际折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
<p>折现现金流模型通过预测未来现金流并将其折现回现在来估算企业今天的价值。对于万豪国际，该模型采用了两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法，基于过去 12 个月的 19.1 亿美元自由现金流和分析师预测到 2029 年自由现金流将上升至约 42 亿美元。在明确的分析师窗口之外，Simply Wall St 推测未来十年美元自由现金流的额外年度增长。</p>
<p>当所有这些预测的现金流折现回今天时，模型得出的内在价值大约为每股 264.89 美元。考虑到该股票的交易价格约为 298 美元，这意味着万豪在 DCF 基础上被高估了约 12.8%。这表明投资者目前为该模型合理解释的现金流支付了溢价。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
<p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明万豪国际可能被高估了 12.8%。发现 908 只被低估的股票或创建您自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/dcf?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1706" height="760" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的万豪折现现金流</p>
<p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出万豪国际的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
<h3>方法二：万豪国际市盈率</h3>
<p>对于像万豪这样的盈利公司，市盈率是衡量估值的有用方式，因为它将投资者每股支付的价格与企业实际产生的收益联系起来。一般来说，更快和更可靠的收益增长，以及较低的风险感知，合理化了更高的市盈率，而较慢的增长或较高的风险则往往限制了投资者愿意支付的价格。</p>
<p>万豪目前的市盈率约为 30.7 倍，显著高于酒店行业平均的约 24.6 倍和同行平均的约 27.9 倍。进一步说，Simply Wall St 计算出一个专有的公允比率为 27.9 倍，该比率根据万豪特定的收益增长特征、盈利能力、规模、行业背景和风险因素估算出万豪应交易的市盈率。这个量身定制的公允比率比简单的同行比较更具信息性，因为它调整了万豪自身的基本面，而不是假设所有酒店运营商都应享有相同的倍数。</p>
<p>实际市盈率 30.7 倍高于公允比率 27.9 倍，因此万豪在收益倍数基础上显得有些昂贵。</p>
<p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1640" height="650" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纳斯达克 GS:MAR 市盈率</p>
<p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1445 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
<h3>升级您的决策：选择您的万豪国际叙事</h3>
<p>我们之前提到过，有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向您介绍叙事，这是 Simply Wall St 社区页面上的一个简单框架，让您将对公司故事的看法与具体的预测和公允价值估算联系起来。叙事捕捉了您对万豪业务如何发展的看法，包括对未来收入、收益和利润率的假设，然后将这个故事转化为前瞻性模型和公允价值，您可以轻松地将其与今天的股价进行比较，以帮助您决定是买入、持有还是卖出。由于平台上的叙事会随着新信息的到来而动态更新，例如万豪的系列扩展的收益或重大新闻，您的公允价值和信念可以实时调整。例如，一个万豪叙事可能假设全球扩张、忠诚度增长和技术投资合理化了接近 332 美元的公允价值的上限。一个更谨慎的叙事可能强调宏观风险和利润压力，导致公允价值接近 205 美元。这种差距反映了不同投资者在合理分歧的同时，仍然以结构化假设为基础做出决策。</p>
<p>您认为万豪国际的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
<p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/quote-price?x-oss-process=image/auto-orient,1/interlace,1/resize,w_1440,h_1440/quality,q_95/format,jpg" alt="" width="1510" height="1044" original-src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>纳斯达克 GS:MAR 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
<p><em>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</em></p>

万豪国际

<p>万豪国际的股票目前为 298 美元，根据估值检查被认为是高估的，得分为 0/6。DCF 分析表明其高估幅度为 12.8%，内在价值为 264.89 美元。其市盈率为 30.7 倍，超过行业平均水平，表明其价格昂贵。尽管长期回报强劲，投资者仍应考虑估值方法和叙述，以做出明智的决策</p>

<ul>
<li>Wondering if Marriott International at around $298 a share is still a smart buy, or if most of the easy money has already been made?</li>
<li>The stock has climbed about 2.1% over the last week, 4.5% over the past month, and is up 8.8% year to date, compounding a powerful 100.2% gain over three years and 140.4% over five.</li>
<li>Much of this strength has been underpinned by steady travel demand and Marriott’s push into higher fee, asset light franchise and management contracts, which boost margins and make growth less capital intensive. At the same time, investors have been watching how the company expands its loyalty ecosystem and luxury footprint to attract and retain higher spending guests, including in periods when the global economy may be slower.</li>
<li>Despite that backdrop of solid long term returns, our framework suggests Marriott currently scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. In this article, we will unpack what different valuation approaches say about the stock today and then finish with a more intuitive way to tie those numbers back to the long term narrative.</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>想知道万豪国际在每股约 298 美元的价格是否仍然是一个明智的投资，或者大部分轻松获利的机会是否已经过去？</li>
<li>该股票在过去一周上涨了约 2.1%，过去一个月上涨了 4.5%，年初至今上涨了 8.8%，在三年内累计增长了 100.2%，五年内增长了 140.4%。</li>
<li>这种强劲表现的很大一部分得益于稳定的旅行需求以及万豪在高费用、轻资产特许经营和管理合同方面的推动，这提升了利润率并使增长的资本需求降低。同时，投资者也在关注公司如何扩展其忠诚度生态系统和奢侈品市场，以吸引和留住高消费的客户，包括在全球经济可能放缓的时期。</li>
<li>尽管有着稳健的长期回报背景，我们的框架显示万豪目前在我们的估值检查中仅得 0/6 分。在本文中，我们将分析不同的估值方法对该股票的看法，然后以更直观的方式将这些数字与长期叙事联系起来。</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Marriott International scores just 0/6 on our valuation checks. See what other red flags we found in the full valuation breakdown.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万豪国际在我们的估值检查中仅得 0/6 分。查看我们在完整估值分析中发现的其他警示信号。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 1: Marriott International Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法一：万豪国际折现现金流（DCF）分析</h3>
</div><p>A Discounted Cash Flow model estimates what a business is worth today by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to the present. For Marriott International, the model uses a 2 stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach, based on $1.91 billion of last twelve month free cash flow and analyst projections that see free cash flow rising to about $4.20 billion by 2029. Beyond the explicit analyst window, Simply Wall St extrapolates additional yearly growth in dollar free cash flows for the following decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>折现现金流模型通过预测未来现金流并将其折现回现在来估算企业今天的价值。对于万豪国际，该模型采用了两阶段自由现金流到股权的方法，基于过去 12 个月的 19.1 亿美元自由现金流和分析师预测到 2029 年自由现金流将上升至约 42 亿美元。在明确的分析师窗口之外，Simply Wall St 推测未来十年美元自由现金流的额外年度增长。</p>
</div><p>When all of these projected cash flows are discounted back to today, the model arrives at an intrinsic value of roughly $264.89 per share. With the stock trading around $298, this implies Marriott is about 12.8% overvalued on a DCF basis. This suggests that investors are currently paying a premium to the cash flows that can reasonably be justified by this model.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>当所有这些预测的现金流折现回今天时，模型得出的内在价值大约为每股 264.89 美元。考虑到该股票的交易价格约为 298 美元，这意味着万豪在 DCF 基础上被高估了约 12.8%。这表明投资者目前为该模型合理解释的现金流支付了溢价。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
</div><p>Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Marriott International may be overvalued by 12.8%. Discover 908 undervalued stocks or create your own screener to find better value opportunities.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们的折现现金流（DCF）分析表明万豪国际可能被高估了 12.8%。发现 908 只被低估的股票或创建您自己的筛选器以寻找更好的价值机会。</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/dcf" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/dcf"/></p>
<p>MAR Discounted Cash Flow as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的万豪折现现金流</p>
</div><p>Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Marriott International.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>前往我们公司报告的估值部分，了解我们如何得出万豪国际的公允价值的更多细节。</p>
</div><h3>Approach 2: Marriott International Price vs Earnings</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>方法二：万豪国际市盈率</h3>
</div><p>For profitable companies like Marriott, the price-to-earnings ratio is a useful way to gauge valuation because it links what investors pay per share to the actual earnings the business generates. In general, faster and more reliable earnings growth, along with lower perceived risk, justify a higher PE multiple, while slower growth or elevated risk tend to cap what investors are willing to pay.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对于像万豪这样的盈利公司，市盈率是衡量估值的有用方式，因为它将投资者每股支付的价格与企业实际产生的收益联系起来。一般来说，更快和更可靠的收益增长，以及较低的风险感知，合理化了更高的市盈率，而较慢的增长或较高的风险则往往限制了投资者愿意支付的价格。</p>
</div><p>Marriott currently trades on a PE of about 30.7x, which is meaningfully above both the Hospitality industry average of roughly 24.6x and the peer average of around 27.9x. To go a step further, Simply Wall St calculates a proprietary Fair Ratio of 27.9x, which estimates the PE Marriott should trade on given its specific earnings growth profile, profitability, size, industry context and risk factors. This tailored Fair Ratio is more informative than a simple comparison to peers because it adjusts for Marriott’s own fundamentals rather than assuming all hotel operators deserve the same multiple.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>万豪目前的市盈率约为 30.7 倍，显著高于酒店行业平均的约 24.6 倍和同行平均的约 27.9 倍。进一步说，Simply Wall St 计算出一个专有的公允比率为 27.9 倍，该比率根据万豪特定的收益增长特征、盈利能力、规模、行业背景和风险因素估算出万豪应交易的市盈率。这个量身定制的公允比率比简单的同行比较更具信息性，因为它调整了万豪自身的基本面，而不是假设所有酒店运营商都应享有相同的倍数。</p>
</div><p>With the actual PE of 30.7x sitting above the Fair Ratio of 27.9x, Marriott screens as somewhat expensive on an earnings multiple basis.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>实际市盈率 30.7 倍高于公允比率 27.9 倍，因此万豪在收益倍数基础上显得有些昂贵。</p>
</div><p><strong>Result: OVERVALUED</strong></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><strong>结果：被高估</strong></p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/pe-multiple-vs-industry"/></p>
<p>NasdaqGS:MAR PE Ratio as at Dec 2025</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>截至 2025 年 12 月的纳斯达克 GS:MAR 市盈率</p>
</div><p>PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover 1445 companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>市盈率讲述了一个故事，但如果真正的机会在其他地方呢？发现 1445 家公司，内部人士正在大举押注于爆炸性增长。</p>
</div><h3>Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Marriott International Narrative</h3>
<div class="lb-trans"><h3>升级您的决策：选择您的万豪国际叙事</h3>
</div><p>Earlier we mentioned that there is an even better way to understand valuation, so let us introduce you to Narratives, a simple framework on Simply Wall St’s Community page that lets you connect your view of a company’s story with a concrete forecast and a fair value estimate. A Narrative captures your perspective on how Marriott’s business will evolve, including assumptions about future revenue, earnings, and margins, then translates that story into a forward-looking model and a fair value you can easily compare with today’s share price to inform your decision to buy, hold, or sell. Because Narratives on the platform are updated dynamically as new information comes in, such as earnings or major news about Marriott’s Series by Marriott expansion, your fair value and conviction can adjust in real time. For example, one Marriott Narrative might assume that global expansion, loyalty growth, and tech investments justify a fair value closer to the top end of recent targets near $332. A more cautious Narrative could emphasize macro risks and margin pressure, resulting in a fair value nearer $205. That spread reflects how different investors can reasonably disagree while still grounding their decisions in structured assumptions.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我们之前提到过，有一种更好的方式来理解估值，因此让我们向您介绍叙事，这是 Simply Wall St 社区页面上的一个简单框架，让您将对公司故事的看法与具体的预测和公允价值估算联系起来。叙事捕捉了您对万豪业务如何发展的看法，包括对未来收入、收益和利润率的假设，然后将这个故事转化为前瞻性模型和公允价值，您可以轻松地将其与今天的股价进行比较，以帮助您决定是买入、持有还是卖出。由于平台上的叙事会随着新信息的到来而动态更新，例如万豪的系列扩展的收益或重大新闻，您的公允价值和信念可以实时调整。例如，一个万豪叙事可能假设全球扩张、忠诚度增长和技术投资合理化了接近 332 美元的公允价值的上限。一个更谨慎的叙事可能强调宏观风险和利润压力，导致公允价值接近 205 美元。这种差距反映了不同投资者在合理分歧的同时，仍然以结构化假设为基础做出决策。</p>
</div><p>Do you think there's more to the story for Marriott International? Head over to our Community to see what others are saying!</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>您认为万豪国际的故事还有更多内容吗？前往我们的社区看看其他人怎么说！</p>
</div><p><img src="https://imageproxy.pbkrs.com/https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/quote-price" alt="" original-src="https://images.simplywall.st/company/fd0f36fb-cd6a-4bc8-9c6e-85c28080fe28/chart/quote-price"/></p>
<p>NasdaqGS:MAR 1-Year Stock Price Chart</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纳斯达克 GS:MAR 1 年股票价格走势图</p>
</div><p><em>This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. <strong>We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice.</strong> It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.</em></p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p><em>这篇来自 Simply Wall St 的文章具有一般性。<strong>我们仅基于历史数据和分析师预测提供评论，采用无偏见的方法，我们的文章并不旨在提供财务建议。</strong> 它不构成买入或卖出任何股票的推荐，也未考虑您的目标或财务状况。我们的目标是为您提供以基本数据驱动的长期分析。请注意，我们的分析可能未考虑最新的价格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St 在提到的任何股票中均没有持仓。</em></p>
</div>

万豪国际的股价上涨后，最近的估值信号是否意味着其上涨空间有限？