<p>高盛警告称，如果行业无法将人工智能模型变现，数据中心投资可能无法获得回报，但也表示需求可能在 2030 年前超出可用容量。</p>
<p>投资者们纷纷向数据中心注入资金，受到人工智能驱动的计算资源需求的推动，这导致美国及其他地区新设施的建设繁荣。</p>
<p>分析公司 Omdia 本周表示，预计到 2030 年，数据中心的资本支出将达到 1.6 万亿美元，年均增长 17%。</p>
<p>但对当前人工智能热潮的投资回报率（ROI）产生了疑问，IT 公司联想今年早些时候发现，许多商业领袖对人工智能是否值得投入持怀疑态度，而另一份报告则声称，未来需求的预测几乎只是猜测。</p>
<p>“许多投资者在炒作和量化这一切的意义上挣扎，” 高盛高级股票分析师吉姆·施奈德在报告中表示，该报告提供了四种可能的情景，供投资者选择数据中心的未来发展。</p>
<p>这四种情景中有一半预测，新的数据中心容量需求将在本十年末之前下降，而其中一种预测则接近耗尽所有可用容量，剩下的情景则认为需求将超出供应。</p>
<p>基础情景，我们假设这意味着高盛研究认为这是最可能的结果，是供需平衡将在未来 18 个月内显著收窄，预计数据中心的入住率将在明年达到约 93% 的峰值。2027 年后，供应限制预计将缓解。</p>
<p>其第二种情景指出，目前许多人工智能应用是免费的，用户不一定愿意转向付费模式。例如，微软据报道在说服客户支付每个座位 30 美元使用 Copilot 方面遇到了困难。</p>
<p>如果用户不愿意为人工智能工具付费，这些产品的变现计划将会失败，这将导致数据中心需求放缓。高盛表示，这将导致供应过剩，可能迫使运营商降低租赁费率。</p>
<p>第三种情景基于观察到，数据中心中的大部分容量仍用于云服务和传统工作负载。但由于成本不断上升，公司一直在寻求合理化甚至减少对云资源的使用，这种趋势在不久的将来可能会进一步加剧。</p>
<p>在这种情景下，企业对云服务的支出下降，尽管人工智能需求保持稳定，数据中心的入住率也会下降。</p>
<p>剩下的情景则认为，人工智能的使用激增将超出数据中心容量的可用供应。报告称，像人工智能生成的视频等应用可能会导致所需计算基础设施的激增，而数据中心通常需要数年时间来建设，开发者可能无法跟上。</p>
<ul>
<li>高通通过收购 Ventana 进军 Arm 替代品市场</li>
<li>Galactic Brain 计划于 2027 年推出太空数据中心，承诺初创公司 Aetherflux</li>
<li>活动组织呼吁国会暂停美国数据中心建设</li>
<li>如果泡沫不先破裂，人工智能热潮将使数据中心资本支出在 2030 年前达到 1.6 万亿美元</li>
</ul>
<p>高盛在 2025 年第三季度报告了 152 亿美元的创纪录收入，同比增长 20%，并警告称，其报告仅供教育目的，不构成投资建议。</p>
<p>换句话说，自己判断你认为会发生什么。</p>
<p>一方面，它表示，如果由于无法将人工智能模型变现而导致入住率下降，数据中心运营商将更难以产生预期的资本投资回报；另一方面，高需求可能导致短缺，业主将尽快租赁或利用容量。后者将反映在他们的投资回报率中。</p>
<p>一些投资者已经开始表达担忧，法国跨国公司安盛本周告诉彭博社，它在为该行业提供融资时 “对人工智能的建设更加谨慎”，因为对新兴风险的认识不断增强。</p>
<p>挪威 2 万亿美元主权财富基金的管理者最近也表示，由于该行业的高波动性，他们对直接投资数据中心持谨慎态度。</p>
<p>然而，麦格理资产管理在今年早些时候讲述了不同的故事，其董事总经理在法国戛纳的 Datacloud 全球大会上向观众解释，他们喜欢数据中心市场，因为它提供了一个难以转移的客户基础。</p>
<p>买者自负风险，一如既往。®</p>

高盛

<p>高盛警告称，如果人工智能模型无法实现货币化，数据中心投资可能不会带来回报，但到 2030 年，需求可能会超过产能。由于人工智能驱动的需求，投资者正大量投入数据中心，预计到 2030 年资本支出将达到 1.6 万亿美元。高盛概述了四种情景，包括潜在的过剩供应或压倒性的需求。该报告具有教育意义，并非投资建议，强调了该行业的风险和机会</p>

<p>Goldman Sachs warns that datacenter investments may fail to pay off if the industry is unable to monetize AI models, but hedges its bets by saying that demand could also overwhelm available capacity by 2030.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛警告称，如果行业无法将人工智能模型变现，数据中心投资可能无法获得回报，但也表示需求可能在 2030 年前超出可用容量。</p>
</div><p>Investors have been pouring cash into datacenters, buoyed by the AI-driven demand for compute resources that has led to a boom in construction of new facilities in the US and elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>投资者们纷纷向数据中心注入资金，受到人工智能驱动的计算资源需求的推动，这导致美国及其他地区新设施的建设繁荣。</p>
</div><p>Analyst Omdia said this week that capital expenditure on bit barns is forecast to reach $1.6 trillion by 2030 thanks to AI, growing 17 percent annually between now and then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>分析公司 Omdia 本周表示，预计到 2030 年，数据中心的资本支出将达到 1.6 万亿美元，年均增长 17%。</p>
</div><p>But doubts have been raised about just how much return on investment (ROI) will come from the current AI frenzy, with IT firm Lenovo finding earlier this year that many business leaders were unconvinced that AI is worth the expense, while another report claimed that forecasts of future demand are based on little more than guesswork.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>但对当前人工智能热潮的投资回报率（ROI）产生了疑问，IT 公司联想今年早些时候发现，许多商业领袖对人工智能是否值得投入持怀疑态度，而另一份报告则声称，未来需求的预测几乎只是猜测。</p>
</div><p>&#34;A lot of investors have struggled with the hype and quantifying what this all means,&#34; Goldman Sachs senior equity analyst Jim Schneider says in the report, which provides four possible scenarios for how the datacenter game may play out between now and 2030, leaving investors to take their pick.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>“许多投资者在炒作和量化这一切的意义上挣扎，” 高盛高级股票分析师吉姆·施奈德在报告中表示，该报告提供了四种可能的情景，供投资者选择数据中心的未来发展。</p>
</div><p>Half of these scenarios forecast that demand for new bit barn capacity will drop off between now and the end of the decade, while one predicts it will come close to using up the entire available capacity, and the remaining scenario sees demand overwhelm the supply.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这四种情景中有一半预测，新的数据中心容量需求将在本十年末之前下降，而其中一种预测则接近耗尽所有可用容量，剩下的情景则认为需求将超出供应。</p>
</div><p>The base case, which we assume means that Goldman Sachs Research thinks it is the most likely outcome, is that the balance between supply and demand is set to narrow significantly over the next 18 months, with datacenter occupancy peaking at around 93 percent sometime next year. After 2027, supply constraints are expected to ease up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>基础情景，我们假设这意味着高盛研究认为这是最可能的结果，是供需平衡将在未来 18 个月内显著收窄，预计数据中心的入住率将在明年达到约 93% 的峰值。2027 年后，供应限制预计将缓解。</p>
</div><p>Its second scenario notes that many AI applications are currently free to use, and there is no guarantee that users will be willing to switch to a paid model. Microsoft has reportedly been finding it difficult to convince customers of the benefits of paying $30 per seat for Copilot, for example.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>其第二种情景指出，目前许多人工智能应用是免费的，用户不一定愿意转向付费模式。例如，微软据报道在说服客户支付每个座位 30 美元使用 Copilot 方面遇到了困难。</p>
</div><p>If users balk at paying for AI tools, plans for monetization of these offerings will fall flat and this will feed through into slower demand for datacenters. This would result in excess supply, Goldman Sachs says, potentially forcing operators to lower their lease rates.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果用户不愿意为人工智能工具付费，这些产品的变现计划将会失败，这将导致数据中心需求放缓。高盛表示，这将导致供应过剩，可能迫使运营商降低租赁费率。</p>
</div><p>The third scenario is based on the observation that much of the capacity in datacenters is still used for cloud services and traditional workloads. But companies have been seeking to rationalize or even reduce their use of cloud resources because of growing costs, which look set to increase even further in the near future.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>第三种情景基于观察到，数据中心中的大部分容量仍用于云服务和传统工作负载。但由于成本不断上升，公司一直在寻求合理化甚至减少对云资源的使用，这种趋势在不久的将来可能会进一步加剧。</p>
</div><p>In this scenario, corporate spending on cloud services declines, leading to occupancy in datacenters falling even though AI demand remains steady.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在这种情景下，企业对云服务的支出下降，尽管人工智能需求保持稳定，数据中心的入住率也会下降。</p>
</div><p>The remaining scenario sees a surge in AI use overwhelm the available supply of datacenter capacity. Applications such as AI-generated videos could see a jump in the compute infrastructure required, the report says, while bit barns typically take several years to construct and developers may be unable to keep up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>剩下的情景则认为，人工智能的使用激增将超出数据中心容量的可用供应。报告称，像人工智能生成的视频等应用可能会导致所需计算基础设施的激增，而数据中心通常需要数年时间来建设，开发者可能无法跟上。</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Qualcomm takes RISC on Arm alternative with Ventana acquisition</li>
<li>Galactic Brain space datacenter coming in 2027, pledges startup Aetherflux</li>
<li>Activist groups urge Congress to pause US datacenter buildouts</li>
<li>AI mania to swell datacenter capex to $1.6T by 2030 – if the bubble doesn't pop first</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>高通通过收购 Ventana 进军 Arm 替代品市场</li>
<li>Galactic Brain 计划于 2027 年推出太空数据中心，承诺初创公司 Aetherflux</li>
<li>活动组织呼吁国会暂停美国数据中心建设</li>
<li>如果泡沫不先破裂，人工智能热潮将使数据中心资本支出在 2030 年前达到 1.6 万亿美元</li>
</ul>
</div><p>Goldman Sachs, which reported record revenue for Q3 2025 of $15.2 billion, up 20 percent year-on-year, cautions that its report is for educational purposes only, and does not constitute an investment recommendation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>高盛在 2025 年第三季度报告了 152 亿美元的创纪录收入，同比增长 20%，并警告称，其报告仅供教育目的，不构成投资建议。</p>
</div><p>In other words, make up your own mind what you think will happen.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>换句话说，自己判断你认为会发生什么。</p>
</div><p>On the one hand, it says, if occupancy rates fall due to an inability to monetize AI models, it will get harder for datacenter operators to generate the expected returns on their capital investments, while on the other hand, high demand could see a shortage where owners will be leasing or utilizing capacity as fast as they can build it. The latter would be reflected in their ROI ratios.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一方面，它表示，如果由于无法将人工智能模型变现而导致入住率下降，数据中心运营商将更难以产生预期的资本投资回报；另一方面，高需求可能导致短缺，业主将尽快租赁或利用容量。后者将反映在他们的投资回报率中。</p>
</div><p>Some investors have already started to express concerns, with French multinational Axa telling Bloomberg this week that it is &#34;exercising greater caution on the artificial intelligence build-out&#34; when backing financing for the sector, amid growing awareness of the emerging risks.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>一些投资者已经开始表达担忧，法国跨国公司安盛本周告诉彭博社，它在为该行业提供融资时 “对人工智能的建设更加谨慎”，因为对新兴风险的认识不断增强。</p>
</div><p>The managers of Norway's $2 trillion sovereign wealth fund also said recently that they are cautious about investing directly in datacenters due to the sector's high volatility.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>挪威 2 万亿美元主权财富基金的管理者最近也表示，由于该行业的高波动性，他们对直接投资数据中心持谨慎态度。</p>
</div><p>However, Macquarie Asset Management told a different tale earlier this year, when its managing director explained to the audience at the Datacloud Global Congress in Cannes, France, that it liked the datacenter market because it offered a captive customer base who find it difficult to move elsewhere.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>然而，麦格理资产管理在今年早些时候讲述了不同的故事，其董事总经理在法国戛纳的 Datacloud 全球大会上向观众解释，他们喜欢数据中心市场，因为它提供了一个难以转移的客户基础。</p>
</div><p>Caveat emptor, as ever. ®</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>买者自负风险，一如既往。®</p>
</div>

高盛警告称，人工智能数据中心的繁荣可能会以不利的结果告终