<p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
<p>美联储官员正在努力寻找最佳的利率政策，以平衡对通胀的担忧与对疲软劳动力市场的忧虑。</p>
<p>美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran，左）和纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）表示，他们对通胀并不担忧。</p>
<p>两位美联储高级官员——一位是更具民粹主义色彩的外部人士，另一位则是中央银行的意识形态中心——在至少一个问题上达成了一致。他们表示，未来几个月内，较高的通胀不会对经济构成问题。</p>
<p>纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的密切盟友，同时也是中央银行的职业经济学家，而斯蒂芬·米兰则是唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统的密切顾问，特朗普本人对鲍威尔持强烈批评态度。本周，两人均表示对未来几个月通胀将降温充满信心。米兰曾是特朗普提名的美联储理事会成员，任期几个月，期间总统及其高级顾问正在寻找鲍威尔的接替人，鲍威尔的任期将于 5 月结束。</p>
<p>这些评论是在美联储官员努力寻找最佳利率政策的背景下发表的，该政策旨在平衡对通胀的担忧与对疲软劳动力市场的忧虑。价格上涨使美国人感到不安。同时，面对经济前景的不确定性，雇主在过去几个月大幅放缓了招聘。</p>
<p>米兰在一次演讲和随后的电视采访中表示，政府统计数据具有误导性，&#34;潜在&#34;通胀率低于 2.3%，与美联储的 2% 目标相差不远。</p>
<p>他说，官方通胀率为 2.8%，受到住房通胀的夸大影响，而住房通胀仍在受到疫情的影响，同时统计学家在股市上涨时对金融顾问费用的测量也存在问题。</p>
<p>他表示，&#34;统计测量过程中的一些特殊情况&#34;不应影响美联储对通胀的看法。</p>
<p>在另一场演讲中，威廉姆斯对通胀前景也持乐观态度。</p>
<p>威廉姆斯表示，尽管关税在今年推高了价格，但影响&#34;更为温和且持续时间更长&#34;，超出了他的预期。</p>
<p>他说，他没有看到关税对其他价格产生溢出效应的迹象。</p>
<p>&#34;特别是，没有出现广泛的供应链瓶颈，住房通胀持续下降，工资增长的指标显示出持续的逐步放缓，&#34;威廉姆斯说。</p>
<p>&#34;这与我在 [纽约] 地区的几位商业联系人所报告的情况一致，他们指出，尽管关税继续推高他们的投入成本，但价格上涨的速度略有放缓，&#34;威廉姆斯说。</p>
<p>纽约联邦储备银行行长预测，明年的通胀将降至略低于 2.5%，在 2027 年达到美联储的 2% 目标。自 2021 年初以来，通胀未曾达到或低于美联储的目标。</p>
<p>威廉姆斯表示，他预计关税对价格水平的影响将是&#34;基本一次性的&#34;。米兰原则上同意，但表示他并不相信关税对核心商品通胀有任何推动作用。</p>
<p>上周，美联储因担忧就业市场疲软而连续第三次将利率下调 25 个基点。</p>
<p>此次会议有三位官员持异议。米兰希望下调 50 个基点，而另外两位官员则希望美联储维持利率不变，因担忧通胀过高。</p>
<p>克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）明年将成为美联储利率委员会的投票成员，她表示支持提高利率。</p>
<p>这两位官员在利率前景上存在分歧。</p>
<p>米兰和威廉姆斯在低通胀对利率政策的影响上存在不同看法。</p>
<p>在他的发言中，米兰主张进一步降息，称劳动力市场一直呈现出疲软趋势，这一趋势早于特朗普政府，且需要降低利率。</p>
<p>如果美联储不继续降息，&#34;到 2027 年我们将处于非常糟糕的境地，因为通胀将降至我们的目标，而劳动力市场将会相当疲软，因为我们保持了过于紧缩的政策，&#34;他说。</p>
<p>威廉姆斯表示，他认为失业率将在 4.5% 左右达到峰值，并将在接下来的几年中逐渐下降。</p>
<p>他没有承诺对利率进行任何改变，称货币政策在 2026 年&#34;处于良好位置&#34;。</p>
<p>-Greg Robb</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
<p>12-15-25 1510ET</p>

威廉姆斯

<p>两位美联储官员，Stephen Miran 和 John Williams，认为未来几个月通胀不会成为问题。他们相信通胀将会降温，Williams 预测明年通胀将降至略低于 2.5%。Miran 由于劳动力市场疲软而主张进一步降息，而 Williams 则认为货币政策处于良好位置。两位官员都淡化了关税对通胀的影响。美联储最近因对就业市场的担忧而降息</p>

<p>By Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>Fed officials are struggling to find the interest-rate policy that best balances concerns about inflation with worries over a sluggish labor market</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储官员正在努力寻找最佳的利率政策，以平衡对通胀的担忧与对疲软劳动力市场的忧虑。</p>
</div><p>Fed governor Stephen Miran, at left, and New York Fed President John Williams say they are not worried about inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran，左）和纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯（John Williams）表示，他们对通胀并不担忧。</p>
</div><p>Two top Federal Reserve officials - one a more populist outsider and the other at the ideological center at the central bank - find themselves in agreement on at least one issue. Higher inflation is not going to be a problem for the economy in the coming months, they say.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>两位美联储高级官员——一位是更具民粹主义色彩的外部人士，另一位则是中央银行的意识形态中心——在至少一个问题上达成了一致。他们表示，未来几个月内，较高的通胀不会对经济构成问题。</p>
</div><p>New York Fed President John Williams, a close ally of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and a career economist at the central bank, and Stephen Miran, who is a close adviser to President Donald Trump, himself a fierce critic of Powell, both indicated this week that they're confident inflation will cool in coming months. Miran was Trump's pick for a several-month stint on the Fed board of governors while the president and his top advisers complete a search for a replacement for Powell, whose term as chair ends in May.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯是美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）的密切盟友，同时也是中央银行的职业经济学家，而斯蒂芬·米兰则是唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）总统的密切顾问，特朗普本人对鲍威尔持强烈批评态度。本周，两人均表示对未来几个月通胀将降温充满信心。米兰曾是特朗普提名的美联储理事会成员，任期几个月，期间总统及其高级顾问正在寻找鲍威尔的接替人，鲍威尔的任期将于 5 月结束。</p>
</div><p>The comments come as Fed officials struggle to find the interest-rate policy that best balances concerns about inflation with worries over a sluggish labor market. Rising prices continue to have Americans on edge. At the same time, employers have dramatically slowed their hiring over the past several months in the face of uncertainty about the economic outlook.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这些评论是在美联储官员努力寻找最佳利率政策的背景下发表的，该政策旨在平衡对通胀的担忧与对疲软劳动力市场的忧虑。价格上涨使美国人感到不安。同时，面对经济前景的不确定性，雇主在过去几个月大幅放缓了招聘。</p>
</div><p>Miran, in a speech and a subsequent television interview, said government statistics are misleading and &#34;underlying&#34; inflation is running below 2.3%, not far from the Fed's 2% target.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>米兰在一次演讲和随后的电视采访中表示，政府统计数据具有误导性，&#34;潜在&#34;通胀率低于 2.3%，与美联储的 2% 目标相差不远。</p>
</div><p>He said the official measure of inflation, at a rate of 2.8%, is being overstated by housing inflation that is still feeling the effects of the pandemic, and also by how statisticians measure financial advisory fees when the stock market goes up.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，官方通胀率为 2.8%，受到住房通胀的夸大影响，而住房通胀仍在受到疫情的影响，同时统计学家在股市上涨时对金融顾问费用的测量也存在问题。</p>
</div><p>&#34;Quirks in the statistical measurement process&#34; shouldn't cloud the Fed's view on inflation, he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，&#34;统计测量过程中的一些特殊情况&#34;不应影响美联储对通胀的看法。</p>
</div><p>In a separate speech, Williams was also upbeat about the outlook for inflation.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在另一场演讲中，威廉姆斯对通胀前景也持乐观态度。</p>
</div><p>While tariffs boosted prices this year, Williams said the impact was &#34;more muted and drawn out&#34; than he expected.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威廉姆斯表示，尽管关税在今年推高了价格，但影响&#34;更为温和且持续时间更长&#34;，超出了他的预期。</p>
</div><p>He said he didn't see any signs of spillover effects from tariffs to other prices.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他说，他没有看到关税对其他价格产生溢出效应的迹象。</p>
</div><p>&#34;In particular, no broad-based supply-chain bottlenecks have emerged, shelter inflation has declined steadily, and measures of wage growth point to a continued gradual slowing,&#34; Williams said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;特别是，没有出现广泛的供应链瓶颈，住房通胀持续下降，工资增长的指标显示出持续的逐步放缓，&#34;威廉姆斯说。</p>
</div><p>&#34;This is consistent with reports around the [New York] district, where several of my business contacts have noted that, while tariffs continue to drive up their input costs, the pace of price increases has eased slightly,&#34; Williams said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;这与我在 [纽约] 地区的几位商业联系人所报告的情况一致，他们指出，尽管关税继续推高他们的投入成本，但价格上涨的速度略有放缓，&#34;威廉姆斯说。</p>
</div><p>The New York Fed president predicted inflation would drop to just under 2.5% next year before reaching the Fed's 2% target in 2027. Inflation hasn't been at or below the Fed's target since early 2021.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>纽约联邦储备银行行长预测，明年的通胀将降至略低于 2.5%，在 2027 年达到美联储的 2% 目标。自 2021 年初以来，通胀未曾达到或低于美联储的目标。</p>
</div><p>Williams said he expected tariffs to have a &#34;largely one-off&#34; effect on price levels. Miran agreed in principle but said he was not convinced tariffs had boosted core-goods inflation at all.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威廉姆斯表示，他预计关税对价格水平的影响将是&#34;基本一次性的&#34;。米兰原则上同意，但表示他并不相信关税对核心商品通胀有任何推动作用。</p>
</div><p>Last week, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the third straight meeting due to concerns about the softening job market.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>上周，美联储因担忧就业市场疲软而连续第三次将利率下调 25 个基点。</p>
</div><p>There were three dissents. Miran wanted a half-percentage-point cut, while two other officials wanted the Fed to leave rates unchanged because of concerns that inflation was too high.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此次会议有三位官员持异议。米兰希望下调 50 个基点，而另外两位官员则希望美联储维持利率不变，因担忧通胀过高。</p>
</div><p>Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, who will be a voting member of the Fed's interest-rate committee next year, said she favored a higher rate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>克利夫兰联邦储备银行行长贝丝·哈马克（Beth Hammack）明年将成为美联储利率委员会的投票成员，她表示支持提高利率。</p>
</div><p>The two officials differ on the outlook for interest rates</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>这两位官员在利率前景上存在分歧。</p>
</div><p>Miran and Williams differ on what low inflation means for interest-rate policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>米兰和威廉姆斯在低通胀对利率政策的影响上存在不同看法。</p>
</div><p>In his remarks, Miran advocated for more rate cuts, saying that the labor market has been on a weakening trend that predated the Trump administration and that lower rates were needed.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>在他的发言中，米兰主张进一步降息，称劳动力市场一直呈现出疲软趋势，这一趋势早于特朗普政府，且需要降低利率。</p>
</div><p>If the Fed doesn't continue to cut rates, &#34;we will be in a really bad spot in 2027, because inflation will be down towards our target and the labor market will be quite a bit weaker because we kept policy too tight,&#34; he said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>如果美联储不继续降息，&#34;到 2027 年我们将处于非常糟糕的境地，因为通胀将降至我们的目标，而劳动力市场将会相当疲软，因为我们保持了过于紧缩的政策，&#34;他说。</p>
</div><p>Williams said he thought the unemployment rate would peak at around 4.5% and gradually come down over the next several years.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>威廉姆斯表示，他认为失业率将在 4.5% 左右达到峰值，并将在接下来的几年中逐渐下降。</p>
</div><p>He didn't commit to any changes in rates, saying monetary policy was &#34;well positioned&#34; going into 2026.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他没有承诺对利率进行任何改变，称货币政策在 2026 年&#34;处于良好位置&#34;。</p>
</div><p>-Greg Robb</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Greg Robb</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创作，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 与道琼斯新闻通讯和《华尔街日报》独立出版。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻通讯</p>
</div><p>12-15-25 1510ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>12-15-25 1510ET</p>
</div>

两位通常意见不一致的美联储官员都表示，未来通胀将不再是一个问题