<p>作者：Britney Nguyen</p>
<p>Seaport Research 对英伟达股票的负面看法迄今为止并未实现，但分析师 Jay Goldberg 在展望 2026 年时强调了这一推荐。</p>
<p>Seaport Research 分析师 Jay Goldberg 表示，他对 2026 年的首要想法是做空英伟达。</p>
<p>Seaport Research 的 Jay Goldberg 对 2026 年有一些看涨的想法，但没有一个像他对英伟达的长期看跌呼吁那样坚定。</p>
<p>尽管这一立场在今年引起了一些关注，但并未实现。自从 Goldberg 在四月底以卖出评级开始覆盖英伟达（NVDA）以来，该股已上涨 62%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，当 Seaport 分析师提交他们对 2026 年的最佳选择时，Goldberg 选择了做空英伟达。</p>
<p>Goldberg 告诉 MarketWatch，人工智能交易在最近几周经历了波动，&#34;有些过于老旧&#34;。虽然由于英伟达在当前 AI 热潮中的地位，其收入和股价飙升，但 Goldberg 表示，&#34;客户越来越难以承担&#34; 英伟达的产品。</p>
<p>他表示，空头论点&#34;就是这么简单&#34;。</p>
<p>查看更多：为什么曾经无敌的英伟达无法拯救 AI 交易</p>
<p>Goldberg 指出，英伟达的主要客户如 Meta Platforms（META）和 Alphabet（GOOGL）（GOOG）的资本支出正在变得&#34;巨大&#34;，但&#34;进行这些支出的客户池非常狭窄&#34;。最终，&#34;他们自然会重新评估为什么要花这么多钱&#34;。</p>
<p>与此同时，这些客户正在加大努力开发定制芯片，以减少对英伟达的依赖，Goldberg 说，他预计一些芯片项目将在明年实现。</p>
<p>对定制芯片的日益热情推动了 Broadcom（AVGO）的势头，该公司与客户共同开发应用特定集成电路（ASIC）。例如，谷歌在 11 月发布的 Gemini 3 模型不仅重申了投资者对 Alphabet AI 机会的信心，也为 Broadcom 提供了助力。</p>
<p>Gemini 3 是在谷歌的张量处理单元（TPU）上训练的，谷歌与 Broadcom 共同开发这些 TPU 已超过十年。</p>
<p>阅读：谷歌因其芯片努力获得高度赞扬——这也能帮助 Broadcom 的股票</p>
<p>Goldberg 对 Broadcom 的看涨观点在今年得到了验证，自他在四月底开始覆盖以来，该股上涨了 78%。虽然 Goldberg 仍然对 Broadcom 股票保持买入评级，并认为这家定制芯片制造商将&#34;继续表现良好&#34;，但他告诉 MarketWatch，他对英伟达的负面看法和该公司面临挑战的想法&#34;更有信心&#34;。</p>
<p>先进微电子公司（AMD）是客户的另一个选择，长期以来被视为英伟达在芯片领域的最接近竞争对手，尽管明显落后。英伟达和 AMD 都设计图形处理单元，与 ASIC 竞争。</p>
<p>Goldberg 表示，AMD 的一些产品&#34;不如英伟达的好，但如果考虑到它们更便宜，并且你算一下每美元获得的计算能力与英伟达相当，那么 AMD 突然看起来作为替代品更有吸引力&#34;。</p>
<p>Goldberg 最初对 AMD 股票持看涨观点，但在 9 月 4 日的报告中转为持有。尽管在他看涨呼吁期间，该股上涨了 69%，但降级被证明为过早，自那时以来该股又上涨了 28%。</p>
<p>尽管如此，Goldberg 认为 AMD 的&#34;故事仍需几年才能实现&#34;。</p>
<p>不要错过：为什么 AMD 的股票是这位分析师明年对芯片投资者的最佳想法</p>
<p>英伟达网络</p>
<p>Goldberg 还担心英伟达与其客户之间的紧密关系。</p>
<p>云基础设施提供商 CoreWeave（CRWV）在 9 月表示，它与英伟达签订了一份新订单，要求芯片制造商回购其未销售的计算能力。根据两家公司在 2023 年 4 月的现有协议，当数据中心的容量&#34;未被 [CoreWeave 的] 自有客户充分利用时，英伟达有义务购买剩余的未售出容量&#34;，该协议有效期至 2032 年 4 月，CoreWeave 在一份证券交易委员会报告中表示。</p>
<p>也请看：CoreWeave 与英伟达的新 63 亿美元合同对 AI 交易的影响</p>
<p>&#34;从会计角度来看，有很多方式可以描述它，但实际上这是一种折扣，&#34;Goldberg 说。</p>
<p>Goldberg 指出英伟达在 11 月发布的最新财报中，该公司报告其云服务协议较去年翻了一番。截至 10 月 26 日，英伟达表示其多年承诺为 260 亿美元——比 2025 年第三季度的 113 亿美元有所增加。虽然其中 63 亿美元来自 CoreWeave，Goldberg 表示，其余的增长来自未知客户。</p>
<p>英伟达在其 10-Q 文件中表示，其中一些容量&#34;可能会被 [云服务提供商] 减少、终止或出售给其他人，在这种情况下我们的承诺将减少。&#34;</p>
<p>-Britney Nguyen</p>
<p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
<p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
<p>2025 年 12 月 15 日 1625ET</p>

英伟达

2 倍做多英伟达 ETF - GraniteShares

南方两倍做多英伟达

南方两倍做空英伟达

英伟达期权收益策略 ETF - YieldMax

1 倍做空英伟达 ETF - Direxion

2 倍做多 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

2 倍做空 NVDA ETF - T-Rex

半导体 3 倍做多 - Direxion

<p>Seaport Research 分析师 Jay Goldberg 对英伟达持悲观态度，预测到 2026 年该公司将面临挑战。尽管自他在四月发布卖出评级以来，英伟达的股票上涨了 62%，但 Goldberg 认为，由于 Meta 和 Alphabet 等客户的高成本，人工智能交易正变得不可持续。他强调了对定制芯片日益增长的兴趣，这将使博通等公司受益。尽管博通自四月以来股价上涨了 78%，但 Goldberg 对英伟达面临挑战的信心强于他对博通的看涨观点</p>

<p>By Britney Nguyen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>作者：Britney Nguyen</p>
</div><p>Seaport Research's negative view of Nvidia's stock hasn't panned out thus far, but analyst Jay Goldberg is emphasizing the recommendation as he looks to 2026</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Seaport Research 对英伟达股票的负面看法迄今为止并未实现，但分析师 Jay Goldberg 在展望 2026 年时强调了这一推荐。</p>
</div><p>Seaport Research analyst Jay Goldberg said his top idea for 2026 is a bearish bet on Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Seaport Research 分析师 Jay Goldberg 表示，他对 2026 年的首要想法是做空英伟达。</p>
</div><p>Seaport Research's Jay Goldberg has some bullish ideas for 2026 - but none are as high-conviction as his longstanding bearish call on Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Seaport Research 的 Jay Goldberg 对 2026 年有一些看涨的想法，但没有一个像他对英伟达的长期看跌呼吁那样坚定。</p>
</div><p>That stance has garnered some attention this year, even as it hasn't panned out. Since Goldberg launched coverage of Nvidia (NVDA) with a sell rating in late April, the stock has advanced 62%.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管这一立场在今年引起了一些关注，但并未实现。自从 Goldberg 在四月底以卖出评级开始覆盖英伟达（NVDA）以来，该股已上涨 62%。</p>
</div><p>Nonetheless, when Seaport analysts submitted their top picks for 2026, Goldberg went with shorting Nvidia.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，当 Seaport 分析师提交他们对 2026 年的最佳选择时，Goldberg 选择了做空英伟达。</p>
</div><p>The artificial-intelligence trade, which has experienced volatility in recent weeks, &#34;is getting a little long in the tooth,&#34; Goldberg told MarketWatch. While Nvidia's revenues and shares have skyrocketed due to its position powering the current AI boom, &#34;it's just getting harder and harder for their customers to afford&#34; Nvidia's offering, Goldberg said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 告诉 MarketWatch，人工智能交易在最近几周经历了波动，&#34;有些过于老旧&#34;。虽然由于英伟达在当前 AI 热潮中的地位，其收入和股价飙升，但 Goldberg 表示，&#34;客户越来越难以承担&#34; 英伟达的产品。</p>
</div><p>The bear case, he said, is &#34;as simple as that.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>他表示，空头论点&#34;就是这么简单&#34;。</p>
</div><p>See more: Why the once-invincible Nvidia can't save the AI trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>查看更多：为什么曾经无敌的英伟达无法拯救 AI 交易</p>
</div><p>Capital expenditures at Nvidia's top customers such as Meta Platforms (META) and Alphabet (GOOGL) (GOOG) are getting &#34;massive,&#34; Goldberg noted, but &#34;it's a very narrow pool of customers who are doing all this spending.&#34; Eventually, &#34;it's just natural for them to sort of reassess why they are spending so much.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 指出，英伟达的主要客户如 Meta Platforms（META）和 Alphabet（GOOGL）（GOOG）的资本支出正在变得&#34;巨大&#34;，但&#34;进行这些支出的客户池非常狭窄&#34;。最终，&#34;他们自然会重新评估为什么要花这么多钱&#34;。</p>
</div><p>At the same time, these customers are ramping up efforts to develop custom chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, Goldberg said, and he expects some of those chip programs to come to fruition next year.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>与此同时，这些客户正在加大努力开发定制芯片，以减少对英伟达的依赖，Goldberg 说，他预计一些芯片项目将在明年实现。</p>
</div><p>The heightening enthusiasm for custom chips has driven momentum for Broadcom (AVGO), which develops application-specific integrated circuits, or ASICs, alongside its customers. The release of Google's Gemini 3 model in November, for example, not only reaffirmed investor confidence in Alphabet's AI opportunity but served as a boost to Broadcom, too.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>对定制芯片的日益热情推动了 Broadcom（AVGO）的势头，该公司与客户共同开发应用特定集成电路（ASIC）。例如，谷歌在 11 月发布的 Gemini 3 模型不仅重申了投资者对 Alphabet AI 机会的信心，也为 Broadcom 提供了助力。</p>
</div><p>Gemini 3 was trained on Google's tensor processing units, or TPUs, which it has codeveloped with Broadcom for more than a decade.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Gemini 3 是在谷歌的张量处理单元（TPU）上训练的，谷歌与 Broadcom 共同开发这些 TPU 已超过十年。</p>
</div><p>Read: Google wins high praise for its chip efforts - and that can help Broadcom's stock too</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>阅读：谷歌因其芯片努力获得高度赞扬——这也能帮助 Broadcom 的股票</p>
</div><p>Goldberg's bullish view of Broadcom has panned out this year, with the stock rising 78% since he initiated coverage in late April. While Goldberg still has a buy rating on Broadcom shares and thinks the custom-chip maker will &#34;continue to do well,&#34; he told MarketWatch that he is &#34;more convicted&#34; in his negative view of Nvidia and the idea that the company is set up for challenges going forward.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 对 Broadcom 的看涨观点在今年得到了验证，自他在四月底开始覆盖以来，该股上涨了 78%。虽然 Goldberg 仍然对 Broadcom 股票保持买入评级，并认为这家定制芯片制造商将&#34;继续表现良好&#34;，但他告诉 MarketWatch，他对英伟达的负面看法和该公司面临挑战的想法&#34;更有信心&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is another option for customers, having long been seen as Nvidia's closest competitor in the chip space, though markedly behind. Both Nvidia and AMD design graphics processing units, which compete with ASICs.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>先进微电子公司（AMD）是客户的另一个选择，长期以来被视为英伟达在芯片领域的最接近竞争对手，尽管明显落后。英伟达和 AMD 都设计图形处理单元，与 ASIC 竞争。</p>
</div><p>Some of AMD's products are &#34;not as good as Nvidia's, but if you factor in that they're cheaper and you sort of do the math that you get just as much compute per dollar as you do with Nvidia, suddenly AMD starts to look much more interesting as an alternative,&#34; Goldberg said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 表示，AMD 的一些产品&#34;不如英伟达的好，但如果考虑到它们更便宜，并且你算一下每美元获得的计算能力与英伟达相当，那么 AMD 突然看起来作为替代品更有吸引力&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Goldberg started off with a bullish view of AMD's stock but switched to a hold stance in a Sept. 4 report. While the stock had gained 69% over the course of his bullish call, the downgrade proved premature, with the stock tacking on another 28% in gains since then.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 最初对 AMD 股票持看涨观点，但在 9 月 4 日的报告中转为持有。尽管在他看涨呼吁期间，该股上涨了 69%，但降级被证明为过早，自那时以来该股又上涨了 28%。</p>
</div><p>That said, Goldberg thinks AMD's &#34;story is still a couple of years out.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管如此，Goldberg 认为 AMD 的&#34;故事仍需几年才能实现&#34;。</p>
</div><p>Don't miss: Why AMD's stock is this analyst's best idea for chip investors next year</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>不要错过：为什么 AMD 的股票是这位分析师明年对芯片投资者的最佳想法</p>
</div><p>The Nvidia web</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达网络</p>
</div><p>Goldberg is also concerned about the intertwined relationships between Nvidia and its customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 还担心英伟达与其客户之间的紧密关系。</p>
</div><p>Cloud-infrastructure provider CoreWeave (CRWV) said in September that it had entered a new order form with Nvidia that would have the chip maker buy back compute capacity that it doesn't sell. Under the existing agreement between the companies from April 2023, when data-center capacity &#34;is not fully utilized by [CoreWeave's] own customers, Nvidia is obligated to purchase the residual unsold capacity&#34; until April 2032, CoreWeave said in a Securities and Exchange Commission report.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>云基础设施提供商 CoreWeave（CRWV）在 9 月表示，它与英伟达签订了一份新订单，要求芯片制造商回购其未销售的计算能力。根据两家公司在 2023 年 4 月的现有协议，当数据中心的容量&#34;未被 [CoreWeave 的] 自有客户充分利用时，英伟达有义务购买剩余的未售出容量&#34;，该协议有效期至 2032 年 4 月，CoreWeave 在一份证券交易委员会报告中表示。</p>
</div><p>See this too: What CoreWeave's new $6.3 billion contract with Nvidia says about the AI trade</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>也请看：CoreWeave 与英伟达的新 63 亿美元合同对 AI 交易的影响</p>
</div><p>&#34;Accounting-wise, there's lots of ways you can describe it, but effectively it's a discount,&#34; Goldberg said.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>&#34;从会计角度来看，有很多方式可以描述它，但实际上这是一种折扣，&#34;Goldberg 说。</p>
</div><p>Goldberg pointed to Nvidia's latest earnings report in November, where the company reported that its cloud-service agreements had doubled from the previous year. As of October 26, Nvidia said its multiyear commitments were $26 billion - up from $11.3 billion in the third quarter of 2025. While $6.3 billion of that is from CoreWeave, Goldberg said, the remaining increase is from unknown customers.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>Goldberg 指出英伟达在 11 月发布的最新财报中，该公司报告其云服务协议较去年翻了一番。截至 10 月 26 日，英伟达表示其多年承诺为 260 亿美元——比 2025 年第三季度的 113 亿美元有所增加。虽然其中 63 亿美元来自 CoreWeave，Goldberg 表示，其余的增长来自未知客户。</p>
</div><p>Nvidia said in its 10-Q filing that some of that capacity &#34;may be reduced, terminated or sold to others by the [cloud service providers], in which case our commitments will be reduced.&#34;</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>英伟达在其 10-Q 文件中表示，其中一些容量&#34;可能会被 [云服务提供商] 减少、终止或出售给其他人，在这种情况下我们的承诺将减少。&#34;</p>
</div><p>-Britney Nguyen</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>-Britney Nguyen</p>
</div><p>This content was created by MarketWatch, which is operated by Dow Jones &amp; Co. MarketWatch is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>此内容由 MarketWatch 创建，MarketWatch 由道琼斯公司运营。MarketWatch 独立于道琼斯新闻社和《华尔街日报》发布。</p>
</div><p>(END) Dow Jones Newswires</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>（完）道琼斯新闻社</p>
</div><p>12-15-25 1625ET</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2025 年 12 月 15 日 1625ET</p>
</div>

Wall Street's lone Nvidia bear is doubling down on his call, with high conviction

- Seaport Research 分析师 Jay Goldberg 对 Nvidia 持看空态度，预计 2026 年将继续做空。  
- 尽管 Nvidia 股价自 4 月以来上涨 62%，Goldberg 认为客户支出过高，难以持续。  
- 他指出，客户正在开发定制芯片以减少对 Nvidia 的依赖，Broadcom 受益于此。  

华尔街唯一看空 NVIDIA 的分析师正在加倍坚持他的预测，并且信心十足