<p>澳大利亚国民银行对澳大利亚储备银行的前景采取了更加鹰派的立场，预测 2026 年将进行两次 25 个基点的加息，第一次在 2 月，第二次在 5 月，这与当前市场定价大相径庭。</p>
<p>持续的通胀风险和国内经济某些领域的韧性被视为迫使澳储行恢复收紧政策，尽管普遍预期政策已经达到顶峰。澳大利亚国民银行的观点与花旗本周早些时候表达的类似，后者也警告市场可能低估了如果通胀持续，澳储行进一步行动的风险。</p>
<p>相比之下，货币市场仍持怀疑态度。目前的定价暗示，澳储行在 2 月会议上维持利率不变的概率为 74%，而直到 8 月才完全计入 25 个基点的加息。这种脱节突显了银行经济学家与市场参与者在澳大利亚货币政策轨迹上的日益分歧。</p>
<p>支持加息的因素是通胀动态与长期暂停不相容。尽管总体通胀有所缓和，但基础价格压力，特别是在服务领域，仍然较高，澳储行一再强调不会容忍长期偏离目标的情况。预计持续的国内成本压力的证据将促使澳储行比市场预期更早采取行动。</p>
<p>2 月的时机尤其值得注意，因为澳储行倾向于在确信通胀可持续下降时才采取行动。澳大利亚国民银行的预测表明，政策制定者可能会判断风险的平衡已转向通胀控制而非增长保护，特别是如果劳动力市场条件保持强劲。</p>
<p>5 月的后续加息将明确表明澳储行认为政策仍然不足以限制。这种结果将迫使利率市场迅速重新定价，特别是在曲线的前端，预期仍然围绕着长期维持不变。</p>
<p>总体而言，澳大利亚国民银行的前景强化了市场对澳大利亚利率的自满风险，如果通胀持续挑战现有共识，将使投资者面临上行意外的风险。</p>
<p>---</p>
<p>澳大利亚国民银行转向加息观点的消息为澳元带来了支撑。</p>

澳大利亚国民银行(ADR)

<p>澳大利亚国民银行（NAB）预测，澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）将在 2026 年进行两次 25 个基点的加息，这与市场对持续维持利率不变的预期相悖。持续的通胀风险和国内经济的韧性被视为 RBA 收紧政策的驱动因素。这一观点与货币市场形成对比，后者预测 2 月份维持利率不变的概率为 74%。NAB 的展望表明，可能会向通胀控制转变，这可能导致利率市场的快速重新定价</p>

<p>National Australia Bank has struck a more hawkish tone on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s outlook, forecasting two 25 basis point rate hikes in 2026, beginning in February and followed by a second increase in May, diverging sharply from current market pricing.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亚国民银行对澳大利亚储备银行的前景采取了更加鹰派的立场，预测 2026 年将进行两次 25 个基点的加息，第一次在 2 月，第二次在 5 月，这与当前市场定价大相径庭。</p>
</div><p>Persistent inflation risks and resilience in parts of the domestic economy is seen as forcing the RBA to resume tightening, despite widespread expectations that policy has already peaked. NAB's call echoes a similar view expressed by Citi earlier this week, which also warned that markets may be underestimating the risk of further RBA action if inflation proves sticky.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>持续的通胀风险和国内经济某些领域的韧性被视为迫使澳储行恢复收紧政策，尽管普遍预期政策已经达到顶峰。澳大利亚国民银行的观点与花旗本周早些时候表达的类似，后者也警告市场可能低估了如果通胀持续，澳储行进一步行动的风险。</p>
</div><p>Money markets, by contrast, remain sceptical. Current pricing implies a 74% probability that the RBA leaves rates unchanged at its February meeting, with a full 25bp hike not priced in until August. This disconnect highlights a growing divide between bank economists and market participants over the trajectory of Australian monetary policy.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>相比之下，货币市场仍持怀疑态度。目前的定价暗示，澳储行在 2 月会议上维持利率不变的概率为 74%，而直到 8 月才完全计入 25 个基点的加息。这种脱节突显了银行经济学家与市场参与者在澳大利亚货币政策轨迹上的日益分歧。</p>
</div><p>In favour of a hike are inflation dynamics that remain incompatible with an extended pause. While headline inflation has moderated, underlying price pressures, particularly across services, remain elevated, and the Bank has repeatedly emphasised that it will not tolerate a prolonged deviation from target. Its expected that that evidence of ongoing domestic cost pressures will prompt the RBA to act earlier than markets anticipate.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>支持加息的因素是通胀动态与长期暂停不相容。尽管总体通胀有所缓和，但基础价格压力，特别是在服务领域，仍然较高，澳储行一再强调不会容忍长期偏离目标的情况。预计持续的国内成本压力的证据将促使澳储行比市场预期更早采取行动。</p>
</div><p>The February timing is particularly notable, given the RBA’s preference to move only when confident inflation is tracking sustainably lower. NAB’s forecast suggests policymakers may judge that the balance of risks has shifted back toward inflation control rather than growth protection, especially if labour market conditions remain firm.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>2 月的时机尤其值得注意，因为澳储行倾向于在确信通胀可持续下降时才采取行动。澳大利亚国民银行的预测表明，政策制定者可能会判断风险的平衡已转向通胀控制而非增长保护，特别是如果劳动力市场条件保持强劲。</p>
</div><p>A follow-up hike in May would represent a clear signal that the RBA views policy as still insufficiently restrictive. Such an outcome would force a rapid repricing across interest rate markets, particularly at the front end of the curve, where expectations remain anchored around a prolonged hold.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>5 月的后续加息将明确表明澳储行认为政策仍然不足以限制。这种结果将迫使利率市场迅速重新定价，特别是在曲线的前端，预期仍然围绕着长期维持不变。</p>
</div><p>Overall, NAB’s outlook reinforces the risk that markets are complacent on Australian rates, leaving investors exposed to upside surprises if inflation persistence challenges the prevailing consensus.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>总体而言，澳大利亚国民银行的前景强化了市场对澳大利亚利率的自满风险，如果通胀持续挑战现有共识，将使投资者面临上行意外的风险。</p>
</div><p>---</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>---</p>
</div><p>The news of the NAB switched to a hike view has lent a bid to the AUD.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亚国民银行转向加息观点的消息为澳元带来了支撑。</p>
</div>

澳大利亚国民银行（NAB）预计澳大利亚储备银行（RBA）将在 2026 年加息两次，这与市场普遍预期的长期维持利率不变的看法相矛盾