<p>澳大利亚经济正日益表现出与进一步货币紧缩一致的条件，联邦银行经济学家因此预测澳大利亚储备银行将在 2 月份加息 25 个基点，尽管市场对近期行动持怀疑态度。</p>
<p>我之前在另一个地方发布了关于 2 月份加息的另外两个预测：</p>
<ul>
<li>花旗预测 2026 年澳储行将加息两次，2 月加息后接着在 5 月加息，因通胀风险上升</li>
<li>国家澳大利亚银行预计澳储行将在 2026 年加息两次，与市场对延长维持利率的预期相悖</li>
</ul>
<p>联邦银行的核心论点是，经济动能证明比澳储行预期的更强劲和持久。经济增长反弹速度超出预期，预计 2025 年下半年 GDP 将加速增长，经济活动现在被评估为接近潜在水平，而非低于潜在水平。这一回升是广泛的，以家庭消费为主导，因实际可支配收入恢复和储蓄缓冲减少。</p>
<p>劳动力市场状况仍然是紧缩呼声的关键驱动因素。就业增长保持韧性，闲置产能指标显示出有限的松动，尽管人口增长放缓，失业率预计仍将保持在低位。由于工资增长相对于生产率仍然较高，联邦银行认为国内成本压力与通胀顺利回归目标之间仍然不一致，需进一步政策约束。</p>
<p>通胀动态是另一个关键因素。尽管总体通胀有所缓和，但基础指标却表现出粘性，服务业通胀和修剪均值 CPI 仅逐渐缓解。消费者和市场基于的通胀预期也有所上升，令人担忧如果政策设置不进一步收紧，通胀的持续性可能会变得更加根深蒂固。</p>
<p>联邦银行还指出，金融条件意外地放松了。股市反弹，澳元有时贬值，家庭支出超出预期，这些都可能削弱去通胀的进程。在这种背景下，利率维持过久可能会导致需求重新加速，超过供给，尤其是在持续的产能约束下。</p>
<p>尽管承认时机微妙平衡，联邦银行认为澳储行会判断，提前采取行动——而不是等待更清晰的通胀恶化——是风险更低的策略。2 月份加息将增强银行的抗通胀信誉，并帮助确保通胀可持续地回归目标，即使这意味着政策需要更长时间保持紧缩。</p>

<p>联邦银行经济学家预测，由于经济增长强劲、就业市场韧性以及通胀持续，澳大利亚储备银行将在 2 月份加息 25 个基点。花旗银行和国民澳大利亚银行也预计 2 月份会加息，并预计在 2026 年会有进一步的加息。联邦银行认为，需要尽早采取行动以维持通胀控制和金融稳定</p>

<p>Australia’s economy is increasingly exhibiting conditions consistent with further monetary tightening, leading Commonwealth Bank economists to forecast a 25 basis point Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike in February, despite market scepticism around near-term action.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>澳大利亚经济正日益表现出与进一步货币紧缩一致的条件，联邦银行经济学家因此预测澳大利亚储备银行将在 2 月份加息 25 个基点，尽管市场对近期行动持怀疑态度。</p>
</div><p>I posted earlier on another two calls for a February rate hike:</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>我之前在另一个地方发布了关于 2 月份加息的另外两个预测：</p>
</div><ul>
<li>Citi forecasts 2 RBA rate hikes in 2026, February followed by May, as inflation risks rise</li>
<li>NAB sees RBA hiking twice in 2026, clashing with market expectations for extended hold</li>
</ul>
<div class="lb-trans"><ul>
<li>花旗预测 2026 年澳储行将加息两次，2 月加息后接着在 5 月加息，因通胀风险上升</li>
<li>国家澳大利亚银行预计澳储行将在 2026 年加息两次，与市场对延长维持利率的预期相悖</li>
</ul>
</div><p>The core of CBA’s argument is that economic momentum is proving stronger and more persistent than the RBA anticipated. Growth has rebounded faster than expected, with GDP accelerating through the second half of 2025 and activity now assessed as running around potential rather than below it. The pickup has been broad-based, led by household consumption as real disposable incomes recover and savings buffers are drawn down.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联邦银行的核心论点是，经济动能证明比澳储行预期的更强劲和持久。经济增长反弹速度超出预期，预计 2025 年下半年 GDP 将加速增长，经济活动现在被评估为接近潜在水平，而非低于潜在水平。这一回升是广泛的，以家庭消费为主导，因实际可支配收入恢复和储蓄缓冲减少。</p>
</div><p>Labour market conditions remain a key driver of the tightening call. Employment growth has stayed resilient, spare capacity indicators point to limited slack, and unemployment is forecast to remain low even as population growth eases. With wages growth still elevated relative to productivity, CBA argues that domestic cost pressures remain inconsistent with inflation returning smoothly to target without further policy restraint.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>劳动力市场状况仍然是紧缩呼声的关键驱动因素。就业增长保持韧性，闲置产能指标显示出有限的松动，尽管人口增长放缓，失业率预计仍将保持在低位。由于工资增长相对于生产率仍然较高，联邦银行认为国内成本压力与通胀顺利回归目标之间仍然不一致，需进一步政策约束。</p>
</div><p>Inflation dynamics are another critical factor. While headline inflation has moderated, underlying measures are proving sticky, with services inflation and trimmed-mean CPI easing only gradually. Inflation expectations have also edged higher across consumer and market-based measures, raising concerns that inflation persistence could become more entrenched if policy settings are not tightened further.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>通胀动态是另一个关键因素。尽管总体通胀有所缓和，但基础指标却表现出粘性，服务业通胀和修剪均值 CPI 仅逐渐缓解。消费者和市场基于的通胀预期也有所上升，令人担忧如果政策设置不进一步收紧，通胀的持续性可能会变得更加根深蒂固。</p>
</div><p>CBA also points to evidence that financial conditions have loosened unintentionally. Equity markets have rallied, the Australian dollar has depreciated at times, and household spending has surprised to the upside, all of which risk undermining the disinflation process. Against this backdrop, holding rates steady for too long could allow demand to re-accelerate faster than supply, especially given ongoing capacity constraints.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>联邦银行还指出，金融条件意外地放松了。股市反弹，澳元有时贬值，家庭支出超出预期，这些都可能削弱去通胀的进程。在这种背景下，利率维持过久可能会导致需求重新加速，超过供给，尤其是在持续的产能约束下。</p>
</div><p>While acknowledging that timing is finely balanced, CBA believes the RBA will judge that acting earlier — rather than waiting for clearer inflation deterioration — is the lower-risk strategy. A February hike would reinforce the Bank’s inflation-fighting credibility and help ensure inflation returns sustainably to target, even if it means running policy more restrictive for longer.</p>
<div class="lb-trans"><p>尽管承认时机微妙平衡，联邦银行认为澳储行会判断，提前采取行动——而不是等待更清晰的通胀恶化——是风险更低的策略。2 月份加息将增强银行的抗通胀信誉，并帮助确保通胀可持续地回归目标，即使这意味着政策需要更长时间保持紧缩。</p>
</div>

CBA 认为由于经济增长过热，澳大利亚储备银行将在 2 月份加息。花旗银行和澳大利亚国民银行也预计 2 月份会加息